Name: Jim Wyckoff 
The U.S. stock indexes were weaker in overnight electronic trading
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The U.S. stock indexes were weaker in overnight electronic trading. The U.S. dollar is sharply lower versus the major currencies in early trading, gold is moderately higher, crude oil is higher and U.S. Treasury Bonds are steady in early dealings. Grains were higher in overnight electronic trading. There were no major geopolitical news events that occurred overnight or over the long U.S. holiday weekend.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
On tap today is the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, the Dallas Federal Reserve production index, and the Chicago Federal Reserve manufacturing index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes were weaker in overnight electronic trading following a long holiday weekend and following good gains Friday. Prices last Friday saw weekly high closes, which does give the bulls some fresh technical momentum heading into the new trading week. That is also an early clue that near-term lows could be in place in the indexes. I still don't look for strong price trends to develop in the indexes. More likely is choppier and more sideways trading action heading into the summer months.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day moving average is now poised to push above the 9-day and produce a minor buy signal--possibly today. Key shorter-term technical support today is Fridays' low of 1,287.50. Sell stops likely reside under this price level. Key upside resistance for active traders today is the 1,300.00 level. Buy stops are likely just above that price level.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish, but it appears the 4-day will cross above the 9-day today to produce a minor buy signal. Key shorter-term technical support for today is 1,1612.00. Sell stops likely reside below that level. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the 1,640.00 level. Buy stops are likely located just above that level.
June Dow: This index appears to have a near-term low in place. The next major shorter-term upside objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the 11,460 price level. Sell stops likely reside just below shorter-term chart support at Friday's low of 11,320. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,400.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were steady in overnight trading, but turned slightly lower in early open-outcry trading in Chicago. Bears are still in overall technical control of both bonds and notes. Rallies are still selling opportunities at this point.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish, but are turning south again. The 4-day moving average today is poised to move below the 9-day average. The next short-term upside price objective for the bears today is pushing prices above shorter-term resistance at 107 even. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. A push below support at last week's low of 106 13/32 would provide the bears with fresh short-term downside technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below that level.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early morning dealings. Buy stops do likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Friday's high of 105.16.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish but are now turning back down. The 4-day moving average is poised to move below the 9-day average today. A move in prices below shorter-term support at last week's low of 105.04.0 likely would uncover some sell stops just below that level.
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in early morning dealings and the currencies are solidly higher. Price action has become choppier in the currencies, heading into summertime. Recent price trends (down on the DX and up in the currencies) have now weakened, but are still in place. The September U.S. dollar index finds key shorter-term technical support at today's low of 83.89 and resistance at today's high of 84.62. Key shorter-term technical support in the September Euro today is today's low of 1.2835. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2968--today's high. Buy stops likely reside just above that level.
METALS
The metals are modestly higher in early morning dealings. Bulls last week made a good recovery in the metals, with last week's lows now very strong technical support. The weaker dollar today will help out the metals bulls. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is the of $650.00 level. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, while buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at $665.00 in August gold.
ENERGIES
Prices are stronger in early electronic dealings, as focus is again on Iran and its nuclear ambitions, and as the hurricane season starts in the U.S. this week. In July crude oil, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below support at $71.00. I still look for more trading within a range--bound by key near-term support at $68.00 in July crude and solid resistance at $75.00. A drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00. It's very likely going to take another geopolitical market "shock" to move crude above $75.00.
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight electronic trading, following a hot, windy and dry weekend in the Corn Belt. Weather forecasts are heating up for the Corn Belt as we start the new trading week. However, if the weather does behave normally and is benign, then it still would not surprise me to see weakness in grains into early July. Grains will continue to closely track the "outside markets" like crude and gold.
