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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« May 2006 |
Main
| July 2006 »
June 2006 Archives
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early morning electronic dealings, following solid losses Thursday. Dollar index bears have gained some near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics are bearish today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 85.60, and then at 86.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.00. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2723 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2799 and then at 1.2850. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish.
METALS
The metals are trading solidly higher in early morning dealings, and have moved above major resistance at $600.00 an ounce. In August gold, shorter-term technical support for August gold today is seen at $595.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $590.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $604.80 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $610.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading slightly higher in early electronic dealings. Prices hit a fresh four-week high overnight. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $73.85 and then at just above solid resistance at $74.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at $73.00, and then just below support at Thursday's low of $72.15. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum this week and are now eyeing $75.00 a barrel.
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight electronic trading. Weather forecasters are calling for hotter and drier weather in the Corn Belt to start the critical growing month of July. Also, the "outside markets" were higher overnight, and that boosted grains in E-CBOT trading overnight. This morning's all-important USDA updated acreage reports will likely provide for more active trading today, heading into what for many will be a very long holiday weekend. My bias is that weather forecasts will trump today's USDA data. And, if today's data is deemed neutral, that will likely add to buying interest, amid ideas of a developing weather market in the grains.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was sharply higher metals prices, led by gold, amid a weaker U.S. dollar following dollar-bearish wording in the Fed's FOMC announcement Thursday afternoon, in which the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Crude oil is also firmer in early electronic dealings. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower and the U.S. stock indexes are lower in early electronic trading. Grains were solidly higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major, market-moving fundamental news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the USDA planting intentions and supply and demand report, the quarterly USDA hogs and pigs report, personal income and spending, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and the Chicago PMI.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading, on just a slight pullback from strong gains Thursday. The bulls did gain some fresh upside technical momentum Thursday, following the stock-market-bullish wording in the Fed's FOMC statement. But my bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today, as the slow stochatics is now reading overbought. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,275.00. Light sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Thursday's high of 1,283.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at 1,290.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,274.50
1st Support:------ 1,265.35
2nd Support:------ 1,248.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,291.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,301.00
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are suddenly fully bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is now above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today, as slow stochastics will likely move into overbought territory on a higher price move today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,590.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,578.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 1,606.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the June high of 1,646.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,589.50
1st Support:------ 1,572.50
2nd Support:------ 1,540.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,622.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,639.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,150 and then just below support at Thursday's low of 11,085. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 11,265 and then more stops just above resistance at 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today, but slow stochastics could move into overbought territory on a higher price move today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,203
1st Support:------ 11,142
2nd Support:------ 11,023
1st Resistance:--- 11,322
2nd Resistance:--- 11,383
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were weaker in overnight trading in Chicago. Treasuries did not get a lot of benefit from a slightly friendly Fed FOMC announcement Thursday afternoon, in which the Fed intimated that its tightening cycle is ending. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Oscillators are neutral to bulllish today. Slow stochastics are well into oversold territory.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight electronic high of 106 6/32 and then at Thursday's high of 106 10/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 105 20/32 and then at this week's low of 105 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 105 27/32
1st Support:----- 105 11/32
2nd Support:----- 104 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 106 24/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early morning dealings. Oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Slow stochastics are well into oversold territory. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of 104.20.0, and then just above resistance at 105.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral to bullish. The 4-day moving average is now moving above the 9-day. The 9-day is still well below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.08.5, and then heavier stops just below support at the contract low of 104.01.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.11.0
1st Support:------ 104.05.0
2nd Support:------ 103.29.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.19.0
2nd Resistance:--- 104.25.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning electronic dealings. Dollar index bulls are losing some near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics are
bearish today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 86.51, and then at last week's high of 86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 85.90. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1.2575 and then heavy sell stops just below support at this month's low of 1.2550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2621 and then at 1.2655. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are turning bullish.
METALS
The metals are trading firmer in early morning dealings. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls fresh upside technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is Wednesday's low of $579.10. Sell stops
likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at Wednesday's high of $589.40 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $595.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading slightly higher in early electronic dealings. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday's high of $72.77 and then at just above resistance at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at $72.00, and then just below support at Wednesday's low of $71.60. I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by
key near-term support at last week's low of $68.65 in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading. While non-threatening near-term weather in the Corn Belt at present is bearish and has limited buying interest, there is now general agreement among weather forecasting models that a hotter and drier weather pattern in the western Corn Belt will start the key growing month of July. Traders will be watching to see what weekly USDA export sales data shows today, but the weather forecasts will be the trump card. Trading will be more subdued ahead of Friday's all-important USDA updated acreage reports. Look for a very active trading day on Friday.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no feature in overnight quiet trading. Gold and crude oil are firmer in early electronic dealings. The dollar is slightly higher versus the other major currencies. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early electronic trading. Grains were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major, market-moving fundamental news overnight. The big news today is the afternoon Fed FOMC announcement.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is weekly jobless claims, the GDP report, the help-wanted index and weekly DOE natural gas stocks report. Also, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing report is out. And this afternoon the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, when it's expected that U.S. interest rates will be hiked again. But there is uncertainty about the meeting's outcome--whether the Fed will hike by 25 basis points or by 50 basis points.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Trading has again turned choppy and my bias is still that trading will remain choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now turning bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now moving above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,257.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,250.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,263.30. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at 1,270.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,254.10
1st Support:------ 1,250.15
2nd Support:------ 1,242.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,261.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,265.57
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day is moving below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is now poised to move above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,537.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops likely reside below solid support at the June low of 1,528.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,578.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 1,600.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,551.25
1st Support:------ 1,543.75
2nd Support:------ 1,529.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,565.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,572.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,970 and then just below support at 10,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 11,140 and then heavier stops just above resistance at last week's high of 11,210. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. However, the 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,029
1st Support:------ 10,999
2nd Support:------ 10,940
1st Resistance:--- 11,088
2nd Resistance:--- 11,118
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were firmer in overnight trading in Chicago. Light short covering was featured after Wednesday's losses. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Oscillators are neutral today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 105 20/32 and then at 106 even. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 105 12/32 and then at the May low of 105 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels, with heavier stops likely just below the May low.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 105 20/32
1st Support:----- 105 8/32
2nd Support:----- 105 even
1st Resistance:-- 105 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 106 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early morning dealings. Oscillators are neutral today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Tuesday's high of 104.13.0, and then just above resistance at 104.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Heavier sell stop orders are likely located just below solid support at Monday's contract low of 104.01.5, and then just below support at 103.24.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.05.0
1st Support:------ 103.31.0
2nd Support:------ 103.26.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.10.0
2nd Resistance:--- 104.16.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
morning electronic dealings. Dollar index bulls are losing
some near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics still
show the DX as short-term overbought and are turning
bearish. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week's high of 86.51, and then at last
week's high of 86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at
Tuesday's low of 85.90. The September Euro today finds sell
stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term
technical support at 1.2600 and then more sell stops just
below support at this week's low of 1.2575. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday's high
of 1.2689 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just
above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are turning bullish.
METALS
The metals are trading firmer in early morning dealings. In
August gold, prices would have to push and close back above
solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls fresh upside
technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for
August gold today is the overnight low of $581.30. Sell
stops likely reside just below that level, and then just
below support at $575.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above resistance $590.00 and then just above shorter-term
resistance at $599.00--Tuesday's high.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading slightly higher in early electronic
dealings. Focus today will be on the morning release of the
weekly DOE stocks data. In August crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $72.50
and then at just above resistance at $73.00. Look for sell
stops just below shorter-term support at Tuesday's low of
$71.60, and then just below solid support at $71.00. I look
for more trading within the recent well-defined range--
bound by key near-term support at last week's low of $68.65
in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But a drop
below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple
closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in
crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight electronic trading.
While non-threatening near-term weather in the Corn Belt at
present is bearish and has limited buying interest, there
are some forecasters calling for a hotter and drier weather
pattern in the Corn Belt to start the key growing month of
July. That may limit selling interest today. Trading today
and Thursday week will be more subdued ahead of Friday's
all-important USDA updated acreage reports. Look for a very
active trading day on Friday.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no feature in overnight quiet trading. Gold and crude oil are firmer in early electronic dealings. The dollar is slightly higher versus the other major currencies. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early electronic trading. Grains were narrowly mixed in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major, market-moving fundamental news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, weekly DOE energy stocks data, and the Fed's FOMC meeting begins today and ends Thursday. Traders are keenly awaiting Thursday afternoon's conclusion of the FOMC meeting, when it's expected that U.S. interest rates will be hiked again. But there is uncertainty about the meeting's outcome--whether the Fed will hike by 25 basis points or by 50 basis points.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. Bears gained some near-term technical momentum on Tuesday. However, my bias is still that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: We saw a shorter-term "collapse in volatility" recently, which did suggest a bigger price move was on the horizon--and we got that bigger move Tuesday--to the downside. Prices also saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily bar chart, and price action also scored a bearish "outside day" down Tuesday. This is shorter-term bearish. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral again today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,248.10--Tuesday's low. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,242.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,260.00. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at Tuesday's high of 1,263.20.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,253.65
1st Support:------ 1,244.10
2nd Support:------ 1,238.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,259.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,268.80
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning more bearish. The 4-day is moving below the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,541.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops likely reside below solid support at the June low of 1,528.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,565.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 1,576.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,545.00
1st Support:------ 1,541.75
2nd Support:------ 1,538.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,548.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,551.50
September Dow: Prices Tuesday scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart, and that's bearish for today. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 10,990 and then just below support at 10,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 11,140 and then heavier stops just above resistance at last week's high of 11,210. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish, as the 4-day moving average is moving below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,046
1st Support:------ 10,952
2nd Support:------ 10,896
1st Resistance:--- 11,102
2nd Resistance:--- 11,196
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were firmer again in overnight trading in Chicago. More short covering was featured after recent losses. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Oscillators are turning bullish today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday's high of 106 even and then at 106 7/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at of 105 24/32 and then at this week's low of 105 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels, with heavier stops likely just below this week's low.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 105 26/32
1st Support:----- 105 21/32
2nd Support:----- 105 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 3/32
2nd Resistance:-- 106 17/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early morning dealings. Oscillators are turning bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Tuesday's high of 104.13.0, and then just above resistance at 104.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Heavier sell stop orders are likely located just below solid support at Monday's contract low of 104.01.5, and then just below support at 103.24.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.09.0
1st Support:------ 104.04.0
2nd Support:------ 103.31.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.14.0
2nd Resistance:--- 104.19.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
morning electronic dealings. Dollar index bulls still have
some near-term technical momentum. However, slow
stochastics still show the DX as short-term overbought. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Monday's high of 86.51, and then at last week's high of
86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
85.90. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below shorter-term technical support at
1.2600 and then more sell stops just below support at the
overnight low of 1.2575. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2689 and
then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those
shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics do show
the Euro as being short-term oversold today, and due for a
corrective bounce.
METALS
The metals are trading mixed in early morning dealings.
Gold is higher and silver and copper are weaker. In August
gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid
resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls fresh upside
technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for
August gold today is $585.00. Sell stops likely reside just
below that level, and then just below support at $580.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $593.90 and then just above shorter-term
resistance at $598.40--last week's high.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading moderately higher in early electronic
dealings. Prices pushed to another fresh two-week high
overnight. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $72.49 and
then at just above resistance at $73.00. Look for sell
stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low
of $71.60, and then just below solid support at $71.00. I
look for more trading within the recent well-defined range-
-bound by key near-term support at last week's low of
$68.65 in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But
a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including
multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading
range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly firmer in overnight electronic trading,
on a corrective bounce from strong losses Monday. Non-
threatening weather in the Corn Belt at present, with no
threatening weather in the long-range forecasts, will keep
buyers tentative for at least the near term. Trading this
week will be more subdued ahead of Friday's all-important
USDA updated acreage reports. Look for a very active
trading day on Friday.
NOTE: I've added key "Pivot Point" levels for the stock
indexes and Treasuries. If you'd like an explanation
of how these levels are derived, send me an email
and I'll attach a feature on Pivot
Point analysis.--Jim
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There feature overnight and in early morning electronic
trading is a rebound in gold and crude oil prices. The
dollar is slightly higher versus the other major
currencies. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher and the
U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early electronic trading.
Grains were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading.
There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the ICSC store sales index, Redbook retail
sales, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, the Consumer
Confidence Index, existing home sales and the Chicago Fed
midwest manufacturing index. Traders are keenly awaiting
Thursday's FOMC meeting, in which it's expected that U.S.
interest rates will be hiked again.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading.
Trading has become choppy recently. My bias is that trading
will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums
in the stock market. I don't look for the recent lows to be
taken out any time soon.
September S&P 500: We've still seen a shorter-term
"collapse in volatility" in this market, which does suggest
a bigger price move is on the horizon. Price action
recently has also seen a wedge pattern from on the daily
bar chart. A breakout from that wedge could occur as soon
as today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is
moving below the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral today.
Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at
1,253.20--Monday's low. Sell stops likely reside just under
that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under shorter-
term support at last week's low of 1,247.30. Shorter-term
upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,261.20--
Monday's high. Light buy stops are likely located just
above that price level, and more buy stops are likely
located just above shorter-term resistance at 1,264.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,258.20
1st Support:------ 1,255.20
2nd Support:------ 1,250.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,263.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,266.20
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day is moving below
the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today.
Today, shorter-term technical support is located at last
week's low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00.
On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's
high of 1,578.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
that level. More buy stops are likely located just above
last week's high of 1,605.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,570.50
1st Support:------ 1,562.75
2nd Support:------ 1,554.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,578.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,586.25
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just
below support at Monday's low of 11,045 and then just below
support at 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at 11,152 and then
heavier stops just above resistance at last week's high of
11,210. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is now pushing above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,101
1st Support:------ 11,071
2nd Support:------ 11,116
1st Resistance:--- 11,156
2nd Resistance:--- 11,186
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were firmer in overnight trading
in Chicago. Short covering was featured after recent
losses. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum
on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices Monday slipped to a fresh
five-week low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day. Slow stochastics still show the market being way
short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce very
soon. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106 7/32 and then at
106 15/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 105
14/32 and then solid support at the May low of 105 3/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels, with
heavy stops likely just below the May low.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 105 29/32
1st Support:----- 106 1/32
2nd Support:----- 105 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 106 17/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early morning
dealings. Slow stochastics still show the market as still
being well oversold and due for a rebound very soon. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at
104.15.5, and then just above resistance at 104.21.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below solid support at
Monday's contract low of 104.01.5, and then just below
support at 103.24.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.04.0
1st Support:------ 104.01.0
2nd Support:------ 103.31.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 104.09.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is modestly lower in early morning electronic dealings, on a corrective pullback following strong gains last week. Dollar index bulls still have near-term technical momentum. However, slow stochastics now show the DX as short-term overbought. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at 1.2600 and then heavier sell stops just below solid support at last week's low of 1.2550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2658 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics do show the Euro as being short-term oversold today, and due for a corrective bounce.
METALS
The metals are trading slightly lower in early morning dealings. A weaker U.S. dollar today should limit selling interest in the metals. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls fresh upside technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is $580.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at Friday's low of $574.50. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $590.20 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $595.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading modestly lower in early electronic dealings. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at last week's high of $71.30 and then at just above resistance at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at Friday's low of $70.28, and then just below solid support at $70.00. I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by key near-term support at last week's low of $68.65 in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight electronic trading, following good weekend rainfall over a good portion of the Corn Belt. The weather forecasts for this week are also bearish, with rains and lower temps predicted for the region. Trading this week will be more subdued ahead of Friday's all-important USDA updated acreage reports.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no real feature overnight or in early morning electronic trading. The dollar is weaker versus the other major currencies. Gold is near steady, crude oil prices are slightly lower, bonds and notes are slightly lower and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. Grains were solidly lower in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight, or over the weekend.
Monday, June 26--Jim Wyckoff's Early Morning Web Log
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is new home sales data and the Dallas Federal Reserve's manufacturing production index. Traders are keenly awaiting Thursday's FOMC meeting, in which it's expected that U.S. interest rates will be hiked again.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Trading has become choppy recently. My bias is that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market. I don't look for the recent lows to be taken out any time soon.
September S&P 500: We've still seen a shorter-term "collapse in volatility" in this market, which does suggest a bigger price move is on the horizon. Price action recently has also seen a wedge pattern from on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are also neutral today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,251.10--Friday's low. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at last week's low of 1,247.30. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,260.00. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at Friday's high of 1,264.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still neutral today. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. But the 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at last week's low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,585.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above last week's high of 1,605.00.
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 11,047 and then just below support at 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance Friday's high of 11,152 and then heavier stops just above resistance at last week's high of 11,210. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back higher. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were weaker in overnight trading in Chicago. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side, as both markets closed at the weekly low close on Friday.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices slipped to a fresh five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Slow stochastics still show the market being way short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106 7/32--Friday's high--and then at 106 15/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 105 16/32 and then at 105 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early morning dealings. Slow stochastics still show the market as being well oversold and due for a rebound very soon. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Friday's high of 104.15.5, and then just above resistance at 104.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below solid support at 104.00.0, and then just below support at 103.24.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were near steady in overnight trading in Chicago. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices slipped to another fresh four-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is now below the 18-day. Slow stochastics still show the market being short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106 15/32--Thursday's high--and then at 106 25/32--this week's high. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 105 25/32 and then at 105 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early morning dealings. Slow stochastics still show the market as being well oversold and due for a rebound very soon. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at 104.16.0, and then just above resistance at Thursday's high of 104.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Heavier sell stop orders are likely located just below solid support at 104.00.0.
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early morning electronic dealings, and near the session high, and the currencies are solidly lower. The DX this morning has seen a bullish upside "breakout" from a congestion area on the daily bar chart. Dollar index bulls now have solid near-term technical momentum. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.70. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00. The September Euro has today seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a congestion area on the daily bar chart. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at 1.2550 and then heavier sell stops just below solid support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2600 and then at the overnight high of 1.2663. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels.
METALS
The metals are trading solidly lower in early morning dealings, and near the overnight lows. The very strong greenback is pressing the metals lower today. In August gold, prices would have to push back above solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls fresh upside technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is $570.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at this week's low of $564.30. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $588.00 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $590.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading modestly lower in early electronic dealings. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $71.17 and then at $71.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at $70.00. Same story: I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by key near-term support at this week's low of $68.65 in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in quiet overnight electronic trading. Near-term weather in Corn Belt is fully bearish. I don't see a lot of downside pressure today, heading into the weekend. Trading may become more subdued ahead of next Friday's all-important USDA updated acreage reports. Pressure today will likely come from lower "outside markets"--gold and crude oil. My bias is that the risk in the grain markets now is for a bigger upside move rather than a bigger downside move.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature overnight and in early morning electronic trading is that the dollar is strongly higher versus the other major currencies. Gold is lower, crude oil prices are lower, bonds and notes are steady and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. Grains were mostly lower in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the durable good orders report, which will be closely watched by financial markets.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Trading has become choppy this week. My bias is that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: We've now seen a shorter-term "collapse in volatility" in this market, which does suggest a bigger price move is on the horizon. Price action this week has seen a wedge pattern from on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now neutral. The 4-day moving average has moved above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are also neutral today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,247.30--this week's low. Heavier sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,242.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at this week's high of 1,268.30. Heavier stops are likely located just above that price level, and then just above shorter-term resistance at 1,272.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. But the 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,605.00. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above this month's high of 1,646.00.
September Dow: Bulls are gaining near-term power. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 11,060 and then just below support at 11,000. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 11,210 and then just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back higher. Shorter-term oscillators favor the bulls today.
METALS
The metals are trading firmer in early morning dealings, but near the overnight lows. Bulls are happy that the potential for a bear flag developing on the daily bar chart for August gold has now been negated. In August gold, prices would have to push back above solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls better technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is the overnight low of $589.40. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $585.00. Buy stops likely reside just above major resistance at $600.00 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $610.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading higher in early electronic dealings. Bulls are regaining power as prices overnight pushed above technical resistance at the top of the recent trading range. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $71.20 and then at $71.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $70.26. I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by key near-term support at this week's low of $68.65 in August crude and solid resistance at $73.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were narrowly mixed in quiet overnight electronic trading. Recent beneficial rains and more in the near-term forecast for the Corn Belt are fully bearish, but that news has been factored into the market recently. Now, weather models disagree on the extended weather forecasts for the Corn Belt. Some are calling for hotter and drier weather in the extended forecast. Traders will keep a very close eye on the midday weather updates today. Traders will also seek direction today's weekly export sales data and from the "outside markets"--gold and crude oil today. It don't look for much more downside pressure in the grains in the near term. My bias is that the risk in the grain markets now is for a bigger upside move rather than a bigger downside move.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature overnight was that raw commodity markets were stronger. The commodity bulls are clawing back, and that is supporting the stock indexes. Crude oil prices are higher, bonds and notes are steady and the U.S. stock indexes are higher in early electronic trading. The U.S. dollar is stronger versus the major currencies in very early U.S. trading. Grains were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is weekly jobless claims, weekly USDA grain export sales, the leading economic indicators report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, and weekly DOE natural gas stocks.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, following good gains Wednesday. Trading has become choppy this week. My bias is that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day moving average has moved above the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but appears poised to turn back north. Short-term oscillators are favoring the bulls today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in 1,260.00. Light sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at Wednesday's low of 1,249.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Wednesday's high of 1,268.30. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then just above shorter-term resistance at 1,272.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are now turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day, but is poised to cross above it as soon as today. Short-term oscillators are favoring the bulls today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,605.00. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above this month's high of 1,646.00.
September Dow: Bulls are gaining near-term power. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 11,057 and then just below support at 11,000. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,210 and then just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back higher. Shorter-term oscillators favor the bulls today.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were near steady in overnight trading in Chicago. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are now fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is now below the 18-day. Slow stochastics still show the market being oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106 20/32--Wednesday's high--and then at 106 25/32--this week's high. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 106 6/32 and then at 106 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early morning dealings. Slow stochastics still show the market as being short-term oversold and due for a rebound very soon. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Wednesday's high of 104.23.5, and then just above resistance at this week's high of 104.28.5. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. A move in prices below shorter-term support at Tuesday's low of 104.17.5 would likely uncover heavier sell stops. More heavy sell stop orders are likely located just below strong support at the May low of 104.13.0.
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early morning electronic dealings and the currencies are lower. Trading in the currencies has become choppy this week, but within a trading range. Dollar index bulls still have some near-term technical momentum. The dollar index finds key shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 86.09. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at the overnight low of 85.28. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located at shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2656 and then heavier sell stops just below support at the June low of 1.2609. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at this week's high of 1.2755. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels.
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is modestly lower in early morning electronic dealings and the currencies are slightly higher. Dollar index bulls still have some near-term technical momentum. The dollar index finds key shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 86.09. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.45. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located at shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2657 and then heavier sell stops just below support at the June low of 1.2609. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2719 and then at 1.2751. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels.
METALS
The metals are trading moderately lower in early morning dealings. While a near-term low may be in place following late last week's rebound, there is still the potential for a bear flag developing on the daily bar chart for August gold. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $589.00 to give the bulls a bit of fresh technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is Tuesday's low of $564.30. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $560.00. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at this week's high of $584.00 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $589.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading near steady in early electronic dealings, as traders await the weekly DOE stocks report this morning. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $68.88. I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by key near-term support at $68.00 in July crude and solid resistance at $75.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly higher in quiet overnight electronic trading, on a short-covering from recent losses. There is presently beneficial rains forecast for the Corn Belt during the next 48 hours. Now, weather models disagree on the extended weather forecasts for the Corn Belt. One calls for cooler temps and some precip, and the other calls for hotter and drier weather in the extended forecast. Traders will keep a very close eye on the midday weather updates today. Traders will also seek direction from the "outside markets"--gold and crude oil today. It don't look for much more downside pressure in the grains in the near term. It's likely that the bearish near-term weather has already been factored into prices.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature overnight was that markets were relatively quiet across the board. Crude oil prices are steady, bonds and notes are firmer and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early electronic trading. The U.S. dollar is weaker versus the major currencies in very early U.S. trading. Grains were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index and the weekly DOE energy stocks report. It's another fairly light report day in the U.S.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. The bulls are fading again. However, my bias is that trading will be choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are back to being fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in 1,247.30--this week's low. Heavier sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,242.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Tuesday's high of 1,259.80. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then just above shorter-term resistance at 1,265.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are now turning bearish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average, but may cross below it today. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 1,560.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,586.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above last week's high of 1,603.00.
September Dow: Bulls need to step up soon. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at this week's low of 10,985 and then just below support at 10,917. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 11,135 and then just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were modestly higher in overnight trading in Chicago, on some short covering from recent declines. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day, but is turning back south and poised to cross below the 18-day as soon as today. Slow stochastics do show the market being oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106 25/32--Tuesday's high--and then at 107 even. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday's low of 106 6/32 and then at 106 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early morning dealings. Slow stochastics show the market as being short-term oversold and due for a rebound very soon. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at 105.00.0, and then just above resistance at 105.07.0. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. A move in prices below shorter-term support at Tuesday's low of 104.17.5 would likely uncover heavier sell stops. More heavy sell stop orders are likely located just below strong support at the May low of 104.13.0.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature overnight was a good rebound in U.S. Treasuries, on some flight-to-quality buying as North Korea appears set to test a long-range missile. Crude oil prices are higher and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. The U.S. dollar is firmer versus the major currencies in very early U.S. trading. Grains were higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major market-moving news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the ICSC store sales index, housing starts, Redbook retail sales and the ABC-Washington Post consumer confidence index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading, following solid losses Monday. My bias is still that near-term lows are in place, but that trading will be choppy in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (9- and 18-day) are mixed. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in 1,247.30--Monday's low. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,242.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,253.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then just above shorter-term resistance at 1,260.00.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are mixed. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. But the 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,560.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1,586.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above last week's high of 1,603.00.
September Dow: Bulls are fading. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 10,985 and then just below support at 10,917. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 11,135 and then just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are turning mixed, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. But the 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were modestly higher in overnight trading in Chicago, on some short covering from recent declines and on some flight-to-quality buying due to the North Korean missile issue. Bears have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day, but is turning back south. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107 even and then at 107 9/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 106 12/32 and then at 106 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early morning dealings. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at 105.00.0, and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 105.07.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. A move in prices below shorter-term support at Monday's low of 104.21.0 would likely uncover heavier sell stops.
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning electronic dealings and the currencies are slightly lower. Dollar index bulls still have term technical momentum. The dollar index finds key shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 86.09. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.74. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located at shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2625 and then heavy sell stops just below solid support at the June low of 1.2609. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2672 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels.
METALS
The metals are trading steady to firmer in early morning dealings. While a near-term low may be in place following late last week's rebound, there is still the potential for a bear flag developing on the daily bar chart for August gold. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $589.00 to give the bulls a bit of fresh technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is the overnight low of $564.30. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $560.00. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of $576.10 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $580.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading higher and near the overnight high in early electronic dealings. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $68.85. I still look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by key near-term support at $68.00 in July crude and solid resistance at $75.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight electronic trading, on a short-covering bounce from solid losses Monday. There is presently beneficial rains in the near-term Corn Belt forecast, and that will limit buying interest in the near term. Extended weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are also deemed by traders to be non-threatening. But there's a lot of growing season left for corn and beans. Traders will also seek direction from the "outside markets"--gold and crude oil today. It don't look for much more downside pressure in the grains in the near term. It's likely that the bearish near-term weather has been factored into prices.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature overnight was sharply lower metals prices and lower crude oil prices. The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. The U.S. dollar is stronger versus the major currencies in very early U.S. trading. U.S. Treasury Bonds are slightly lower in early dealings. Grains were solidly lower in overnight electronic trading. Major market-moving news overnight and over the weekend is reports that China is again acting to restrain its economic growth by raising interest rates and curtailing lending. This is an underlying bearish factor for most raw commodities markets.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the NAHB housing index and Atlanta Fed president Guynn speaks. It's a light event day today in the U.S.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, following good rebounds last week. The bulls are regaining some near-term technical momentum. My bias is that near-term lows are in place.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. A minor bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in 1,256.90--Friday's low. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,250.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at last week's high of 1,270.50. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that price level.
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 1,565.00. Light sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then below support at 1,555.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,603.00. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that level.
September Dow: Bulls are regaining power. For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,000 and then at 10,917. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 11,130 and then just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish, as the 4-day moving average has moved above the 9-day to produce a bullish signal. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Look for the Dow to be the leader of the indexes in the near term.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were modestly lower in overnight trading in Chicago. Bears again have near-term technical momentum on their side, following weekly low closes on Friday. The markets have suffered near-term chart damage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: In overnight trading, prices dipped to a fresh three-week low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are mostly bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day, but is turning back south. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107 even and then at Friday's high of 107 9/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 15/32 and then at 106 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early morning dealings. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at 105.00.0, and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 105.07.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average has crossed below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is now below the 18-day moving average. A move in prices below key shorter-term support at the June low of 104.22.5 would likely uncover heavy sell stops.
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is moderately higher in early morning electronic dealings and the currencies are modestly lower. Dollar index bulls still have some-term technical momentum but need to step up soon to show some more power. The dollar index finds key shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 86.08. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.60. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located at shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2653 and then heavy sell stops just below solid support at the June low of 1.2609. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2687 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels.
METALS
The metals are sharply lower in early morning dealings, with gold leading the way. While a near-term low may be in place following late last week's rebound, there is the potential for a bear flag developing on the daily bar chart for August gold. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $600.00 to give the bulls a bit of fresh technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is the overnight low of $569.10. Sell stops likely reside just below that levels, and then just below support at $565.50. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at $580.00 and then at the overnight high of $584.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading lower and near the overnight low in early electronic dealings. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the $69.00. I still look for more trading within the recent well-defined range--bound by key near-term support at $68.00 in July crude and solid resistance at $75.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range--including multiple closes below it--would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00. Natural gas price action last week does suggest that a near-term low is in place in that market, and that prices can work sideways to higher in the coming weeks.
GRAINS
Prices were sharply lower in overnight electronic trading, following beneficial weekend rains in the dry western Corn Belt, and more rain in the forecast. Extended weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are now deemed by traders to be non-threatening. There's a lot of growing season left for corn and beans, but right now, the weather favors the bears. Traders will also seek direction from the "outside markets"--gold and crude oil today. Weaker gold prices could spill over into added weakness in the grains today.
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