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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« June 2006 |
Main
| August 2006 »
July 2006 Archives
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning dealings. The bulls are fading and a weekly low close today would add to the near-term bearish posture of the index. Slow stochastics are bearish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.00 and then at this week's high of 86.52. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 85.12 and then at 85.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The September Euro is lower in early trading. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at 1.2700 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2743 and then at this week's high of 1.2815. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish for today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
METALS
Gold is trading moderately lower in early morning dealings, on a corrective pullback from strong gains Thursday. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at Thursday's low of $621.60 and then at $618.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $636.60 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Thursday's high of $641.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
ENERGIES
Prices are trading moderately lower in early electronic dealings. A bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at $75.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00, and then heavy sell stops just below strong support at $73.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were modestly higher in overnight electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from recent losses. While
beneficial rains have fallen over the Corn Belt this week--especially the eastern Belt, hot weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the coming days, with few chances for rain, will support the bulls today. Sellers will also be timid heading into a summertime weekend. My bias for the trading day today: Look for higher markets into the close, unless the midday weather updates change significantly. I think the downside is limited at present levels in all the grains.
NOTE: I will be out of the office until Monday afternoon, and your next blog report will be early Tuesday morning.--Jim
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no major feature in overnight/early morning trading. Gold is trading modestly lower and crude oil prices are also modestly lower. The U.S. dollar is near steady versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly lower. Traders are awaiting this morning's GDP report.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the employment cost index, advance GDP, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. President Bush and U.K. Prime Minister Blair hold a press conference today in Washington, D.C.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are working prices up from their recent lows and weekly high closes today would be another bullish clue that near-term lows are in place.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is poised to move above it as soon as today. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,266.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Thursday's high of 1,281.70. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more heavy buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the July high of 1,289.70. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,273.60
1st Support:------ 1,265.50
2nd Support:------ 1,258.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,280.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,288.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day, but is turning north. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 1,484.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 1,516.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,525.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,498.50
1st Support:------ 1,480.25
2nd Support:------ 1,465.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,512.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,530.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 11,124 and then more stops just below support at 11,085. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 11,225 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day and the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back north and could cross above the 18-day today. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,173
1st Support:------ 11,121
2nd Support:------ 11,073
1st Resistance:--- 11,221
2nd Resistance:--- 11,273
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have some near-term technical strength. Weekly high closes in Treasuries today would be significantly bullish. Traders are awaiting this morning's GDP report.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today, but just barely. The 4-day moving average is barely above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 26/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 108 1/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 107 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 107 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 24/32
1st Support:----- 107 16/32
2nd Support:----- 107 7/32
1st Resistance:-- 108 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 108 9/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 105.26.5, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid resistance at the June high of 106.03.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.16.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of 105.09.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.22.0
1st Support:------ 105.16.0
2nd Support:------ 105.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 106.00.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early morning dealings. Prices hit a fresh two-week low overnight and the bulls are fading. Slow stochastics are bearish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.67 and then at 86.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.00 and then at 84.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early trading. Prices hit a fresh two-week high overnight. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2748 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2793 and then at 1.2850. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish for today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
METALS
Gold is trading solidly higher in early morning dealings. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $630.00 and then at the overnight low of $621.60. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $634.00 and then more buy stops just above resistance at $640.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
ENERGIES
Prices are trading solidly higher in early electronic dealings. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $76.00 and then just above resistance at $76.50. Look for heavy sell stops just below technical support at $74.00, and then heavy sell stops just below strong support at $73.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight electronic trading. Corn and soybeans were lower on some beneficial rains that have fallen over the Corn Belt the past 48 hours. However, very hot weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the coming days, with few chances for rain, will limit selling interest today. Wheat was weaker overnight on a lack of fresh bullish fundamental news. My bias for the trading day today: Choppy early, but if the extended Corn Belt weather forecasts don't change, then prices could make a stronger move higher into the close. I think the downside is limited at present levels in all the grains.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no major feature in overnight/early morning trading. Gold is trading solidly higher and crude oil prices are moderately higher. The U.S. dollar is lower versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, the Conference Board's help-wanted index, new home sales, the weekly natural gas storage report, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are working prices up from their recent lows.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning north. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,272.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,266.80. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Wednesday's high of 1,279.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the July high of 1,289.70. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,273.25
1st Support:------ 1,266.75
2nd Support:------ 1,260.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,279.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,286.15
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day, but is turning north. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,483.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,510.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,525.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,496.25
1st Support:------ 1,482.50
2nd Support:------ 1,469.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,509.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,523.25
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 11,085 and then more stops just below support at 11,046. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,195 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day, and poised to move above the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back north. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,139
1st Support:------ 11,084
2nd Support:------ 11,029
1st Resistance:--- 11,194
2nd Resistance:--- 11,249
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago. Bulls have regained some near-term technical strength.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high and Wednesday's high of 107 30/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the July high of 108 4/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 15/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 21/32
1st Support:----- 107 13/32
2nd Support:----- 106 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 108 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 108 12/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high and Wednesday's high of 105.24.0, and then more buy stops are likely located just above solid resistance at the July high of 105.26.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.20.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 105.09.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.18.0
1st Support:------ 105.13.0
2nd Support:------ 105.03.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.28.0
2nd Resistance:--- 106.01.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early morning dealings. Slow stochastics are bullish today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 86.52 and then at 86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 85.85. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is slightly higher in early trading. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2603 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2645 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
METALS
Gold is trading near steady in early morning dealings. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $614.20. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely just below support at Tuesday's low of $610.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $620.00 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $624.20. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
ENERGIES
Prices are trading firmer in early electronic dealings. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.50 and then just above resistance at $75.00. Look for heavy sell stops just below strong technical support at $73.50, and then more stops just below support at $73.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight electronic trading. Corn and soybeans were firmer on hot weather forecasts for the Corn Belt in the coming days, but with chances for rain. Wheat was weaker overnight on a lack of fresh bullish fundamental news. My bias for the trading day today: Choppy, narrow-range trading until noontime weather forecasts, and then prices could make a stronger move into the close.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no major feature in overnight/early morning trading. Gold is near steady and crude oil prices are higher. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, the Chicago Fed national activity index, DOE liquid energy stocks data and the Federal Reserve's beige book.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading, following modest gains on Tuesday.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is poised to move above the 18-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning north. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,262.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,250.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Tuesday's high of 1,278.80. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the July high of 1,289.70. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,270.95
1st Support:------ 1,263.20
2nd Support:------ 1,254.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,279.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,287.05
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day, but is turning north. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,483.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday high of 1,504.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at last week's high of 1,510.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,493.50
1st Support:------ 1,482.25
2nd Support:------ 1,472.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,503.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,514.50
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 11,046 and then more stops just below support at 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 11,175 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day today. The 9-day is moving average is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back north. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,113
1st Support:------ 11,050
2nd Support:------ 10,974
1st Resistance:--- 11,189
2nd Resistance:--- 11,252
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls are fading.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. However, the 4-day moving average is turning lower. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 18/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 107 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 20/32
1st Support:----- 107 9/32
2nd Support:----- 107 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 108 7/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 105.09.0, and then more buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at 105.18.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. However, the 4-day moving average is turning down, which is an early bearish signal. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.09.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.16.0
1st Support:------ 105.09.0
2nd Support:------ 105.05.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.27.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early morning dealings, on a corrective pullback from gains Monday. Slow stochastics are turning bullish today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.22 and then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.95 and then at last week's low of 85.55. The September Euro is slightly higher in early trading. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2649 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2718 and then at the Monday's high of 1.2754. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are turning bearish.
METALS
Gold is trading solidly higher in early morning dealings, on a corrective bounce from recent strong losses. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $611.10. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops just below solid support at Monday's low of $602.50. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $624.20 and then more buy stops just above resistance at $630.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading higher in early electronic dealings, on follow-through strength from gains seen Monday. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $75.78 and then just above resistance at $76.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00, and then more stops just below support at $74.50.
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight electronic trading. Corn and soybeans were firmer on hot and dry forecasts for the Corn Belt this week, and on surprising drops in the crop condition ratings in the weekly USDA crop progress reports, issued Monday after the close. Wheat was higher overnight on a corrective bounce from losses Monday. Higher "outside markets" will also benefit the grain bulls today.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is higher gold and crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly higher.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today are the ICSC store sales index, Redbook retail sales, existing home sales, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading, on follow-through strength from good gains posted Monday.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in 1,260.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,250.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Monday's and last week's high of 1,269.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,280.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,260.00
1st Support:------ 1,251.00
2nd Support:------ 1,234.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,276.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,285.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is moving above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 1,475.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops likely reside below solid support at the contract low of 1,458.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 1,510.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,530.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,483.25
1st Support:------ 1,470.75
2nd Support:------ 1,447.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,506.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,519.25
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,000 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 10,940. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 11,110 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day today. The 9-day is moving average is still below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,151
1st Support:------ 10,991
2nd Support:------ 10,881
1st Resistance:--- 11,161
2nd Resistance:--- 11,221
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly higher in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum following recent gains.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Solid technical resistance lies at last week's high of 108 5/32. Heavier buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops also likely reside just above solid technical resistance at the June high of 108 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 107 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 11/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 23/32
1st Support:----- 107 15/32
2nd Support:----- 107 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 108 6/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 105.26.0, and then more heavy buy stops are likely located just above solid resistance at the June high of 106.03.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 105.12.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.08.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.18.0
1st Support:------ 105.13.0
2nd Support:------ 105.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.22.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.27.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early morning dealings, on a corrective bounce from recent losses. Slow stochastics are bearish again today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.15 and then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at last week's low of 85.55 and then at 85.00. The September Euro is lower in early trading. Price action so far today is scoring a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2655 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at the overnight high of 1.2754. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish.
METALS
Gold is trading lower in early morning dealings, and hit a fresh three-week low. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $612.20. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops just below major psychological support at $600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $621.20 and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at $625.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading lower in early electronic dealings, following recent strong losses. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum on their side. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then at the overnight high of $74.70. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $73.50, and then more stops just below support at $73.00.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading. Corn and soybeans were firmer on hot an dry forecasts for the Corn Belt this week. Wheat was lower overnight on a corrective pullback from good gains seen last week. Bears had had a very good week in the corn and soybeans last week, and those markets are short-term oversold, technically, and due for at least a corrective bounce very soon.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is weaker gold and crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
There are no major U.S. economic reports or government officials speaking events on tap today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Trading has turned choppier the past few sessions.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 1,243.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under technical support at last week's low of 1,231.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,250.90. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Friday's high of 1,260.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,249.50
1st Support:------ 1,239.00
2nd Support:------ 1,233.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,255.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,266.00
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,458.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,486.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at last week's high of 1,510.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,468.75
1st Support:------ 1,451.50
2nd Support:------ 1,441.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,478.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,495.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 10,880 and then more stops just below support at 10,825. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 11,025 and then more buy stops just above resistance at last week's high of 11,087. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish today, but the 4-day moving average is poised to move above the 9-day today. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,937
1st Support:------ 10,849
2nd Support:------ 10,792
1st Resistance:--- 10,994
2nd Resistance:--- 11,082
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum heading into the new trading week.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 25/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance at Friday's high of 108 4/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at of 107 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 27/32
1st Support:----- 107 17/32
2nd Support:----- 107 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 108 even
2nd Resistance:-- 108 10/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance the overnight high of 105.19.0, and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at Friday's high of 105.26.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.08.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.20.0
1st Support:------ 105.14.0
2nd Support:------ 105.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.30.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower again in early morning dealings. Bulls are fading this week. Slow stochastics are bearish again today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.04 and then at Thursday's high of 86.24. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at 85.00. The September Euro is higher in early trading. The Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2674 and then more sell stops just below support at Thursday's low of 1.2636. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2750 and then at 1.2800. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish.
METALS
Gold is trading weaker in early morning dealings, and near the overnight session high. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $620.90. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops just below support at this week's low of $618.90. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $633.40 and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at $640.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading modestly higher in early electronic dealings, following recent strong losses. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum on their side. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then at $75.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $73.90, and then heavier stops just below solid support at this week's low of $73.51.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight electronic trading, on follow-through selling from losses Thursday. Bears have had a good week in the grains, amid near-term weather forecasts for the Corn Belt that are not threatening. Longer-range forecasts are not in agreement. That fact will likely limit selling interest today, heading into a summertime weekend when weather forecasts can change quickly. Wheat on Thursday separated from corn and soybeans, but my bias is that was an exception and that wheat will follow corn and beans in the near term.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading. The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed and crude oil prices are modestly higher. Gold is trading modestly lower. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower versus the other major currencies. U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher. In overnight news, China raised its interest rates to try to slow down its very strong economic growth.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
There are no major U.S. economic reports or government officials speaking events on tap today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. If the bulls can end this week on a strong note, that would suggest near-term lows are in place in the stock indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is moving above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,252.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,244.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,260.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at this week's high of 1,269.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,258.50
1st Support:------ 1,248.25
2nd Support:------ 1,242.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,264.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,275.00
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day is turning higher and may move above the 9-day moving average today. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,458.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,486.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at this week's high of 1,510.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,485.50
1st Support:------ 1,463.75
2nd Support:------ 1,450.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,499.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,521.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,910 and then more stops just below support at Thursday's low of 10,825. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 11,087 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish today, but the 4-day moving average is turning back north. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,009
1st Support:------ 10,934
2nd Support:------ 10,889
1st Resistance:--- 11,054
2nd Resistance:--- 11,129
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly higher in early trading in Chicago. Prices overnight hit another fresh five-week high. Follow-through buying strength again today would be significantly bullish for Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108 3/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance at the June high of 108 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Thursday's low of 107 11/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 25/32
1st Support:----- 107 16/32
2nd Support:----- 107 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 108 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 108 16/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance the overnight high of 105.24.5, and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at the June high of 106.03.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.17.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Thursday's low of 105.08.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.17.0
1st Support:------ 105.12.0
2nd Support:------ 105.03.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.31.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early morning dealings. The greenback is pressured by dollar-bearish remarks by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Slow stochastics are bearish today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.24 and then at 86.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at 85.00. The September Euro is higher in early trading. The Euro today finds heavy sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2636 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at 1.2750. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish.
METALS
Gold is trading near steady in early morning dealings, and near the overnight session high. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $637.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $630.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $646.50 and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at $650.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading modestly higher in early electronic dealings, following recent strong losses. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum on their side. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $73.50 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $72.67, and then heavier stops just below solid support at Wednesday's low of $71.65.
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from recent strong losses. The weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are a bit more bullish now, and the corn and soybean markets are technically oversold on a near-term basis. Wheat has turned into a follower of corn and soybeans, although losses have been limited by very poor spring wheat crop conditions in some regions. Once again, updated weather forecasts will be key today.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is firmer U.S. stock indexes and firmer crude oil prices. Gold is trading near steady. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower versus the other major currencies. U.S. Treasuries are slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is jobless claims, the leading economic indicators report, DOE natural gas stocks report, USDA weekly export sales, the Philadelphia Fed survey, FOMC minutes, and Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks before a House of Representatives committee. Given that Bernanke spoke just yesterday, his remarks won't be as critical today, but will be closely monitored, still.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on follow-through strength from gains seen Wednesday. If the bulls can end this week on a positive note, that would suggest near-term lows are in place in the stock indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day moving average has turned north and could move above the 9-day as soon as today. The 9-day is below above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,255.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,244.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Wednesday's high of 1,269.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Friday's high of 1,280.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,258.50
1st Support:------ 1,248.00
2nd Support:------ 1,233.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,273.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,283.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day is turning higher and may move above the 9-day moving average today. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,476.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops likely reside below solid support at the contract low of 1,458.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,510.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,530.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,492.50
1st Support:------ 1,474.75
2nd Support:------ 1,459.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,508.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,526.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,000 and then more stops just below support at of 10,910. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,087 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish today, but the 4-day moving average is turning back north. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,987
1st Support:------ 10,886
2nd Support:------ 10,725
1st Resistance:--- 11,148
2nd Resistance:--- 11,249
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago, on a corrective pullback from good gains Wednesday. Follow-through buying strength today would be significantly bullish for Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this month's high of 107 26/32. Heavier buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 6/32
1st Support:----- 106 222/32
2nd Support:----- 105 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 108 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 108 20/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bearish again today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid resistance the July high of 105.16.5, and then more buy stops just above resistance at 105.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.08.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.04.0
1st Support:------ 104.26.0
2nd Support:------ 104.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 106.02.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning dealings. The greenback is supported on a flight-to- quality basis due to Middle East tensions that are still running high. Slow stochastics are bearish today, as the indicator lines are into overbought territory, suggesting a corrective pullback. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 86.93 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday's low of 86.36 and then at 86.00. The September Euro is slightly lower in early trading. The Euro today finds heavy sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1.2524 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday's high of 1.2612 and then at 1.2650. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are now bullish, as both lines are into oversold territory, suggesting an upside correction very soon.
METALS
Gold is trading slightly lower in early morning dealings, and near the overnight mid-range. Bears are gaining downside technical momentum. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $618.90. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $610.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $634.00 and then more buy stops just above resistance at $640.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading slightly lower in early electronic dealings, and near mid-range. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $74.11 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $72.78, and then just below support at $72.00.
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight electronic trading, as the bears are gaining more downside technical momentum as the weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are turning more bearish. Wheat has turned into a follower of corn and soybeans. Once again, updated weather forecasts will be key today. Still, the weather patterns in the Corn Belt certainly cannot be called bearish. Bulls can also argue that corn and soybeans are now technically oversold on a short-term basis, and due for at least an upside corrective rebound.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is lower gold and crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are modestly lower in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, the Consumer Price Index report and DOE energy stocks data. Kansas City Fed president Hoenig speaks today. But the most important event of the day is Fed chairman Bernanke's testimony before the Senate today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bears still have some downside technical momentum, amid higher oil prices and tensions in the Middle East. Buying interest will continue to be limited by these factors, at least in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day today. The 9-day is moving below above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,240.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under solid technical support at the June low of 1,229.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,250.00. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Friday's high of 1,258.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,241.15
1st Support:------ 1,235.55
2nd Support:------ 1,225.45
1st Resistance:--- 1,251.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,256.85
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today, but slow stochastics are still into oversold territory. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's contract low of 1,458.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,489.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,500.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,477.90
1st Support:------ 1,466.85
2nd Support:------ 1,446.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,497.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,508.90
September Dow: For today, heavier sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's contract low of 10,730 and then more stops just below support at of 10,700. Light buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,910 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,000. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,821
1st Support:------ 10,775
2nd Support:------ 10,683
1st Resistance:--- 10,913
2nd Resistance:--- 10,959
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago. Today's price action will be extra important. Follow-through selling today, from Tuesday's losses, would be significantly bearish to suggest a retest of the recent contract lows. Stronger closes today will revive the bulls.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is poised to cross below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish again today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107 even. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 107 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 16/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 1/32
1st Support:----- 106 16/32
2nd Support:----- 106 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 11/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 28/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bearish again today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance the overnight high of 104.29.0, and then more buy stops just above resistance at 105.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is poised to move below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.13.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.00.0
1st Support:------ 104.21.0
2nd Support:------ 104.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.17.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early morning dealings, on a corrective pullback from strong gains Monday. The greenback is supported on a flight-to- quality basis due to Middle East tensions that are still running high. Slow stochastics are bullish again today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.77 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00. The September Euro is slightly higher in early trading, but did dip to a fresh nearly three-month low in overnight trading. The Euro today finds heavy sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2547 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2609 and then at 1.2650. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bearish today.
METALS
Gold is trading slightly lower in early morning dealings, but near the overnight high. Bulls are still defensive after the big sell off Monday. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $642.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $640.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $655.00 and then more buy stops just above resistance at $660.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading solidly higher in early electronic dealings, and nearer the overnight high. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $77.00 and then at Monday's high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $75.15, and then just below support at $74.50.
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses Monday. Once again, updated weather forecasts will be key today. Weather models now are not showing as much heat in the Corn Belt in the near term, and with some slightly better chances for rain. But the weather patterns in the Corn Belt certainly cannot be called bearish. For corn, we are right at the critical pollination stage for much of the crop. My bias is that the weather market in the grains is not finished and that there will be more upside fireworks in the near term--but trading will likely remain choppy.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is solid gains in the crude oil market, following strong losses Monday. The Middle East tensions are still very high, and that will keep all traders on edge again today. Gold prices are modestly lower in early trading today. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are narrowly mixed and near steady in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the ICSC store sales index, the Producer Price Index report, the NAHB housing index, and Redbook retail sales. Fed governor Warsh speaks in Washington, D.C. The PPI report will be most important to traders.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bears still have some downside technical momentum, amid record-high oil prices and heightened tensions in the Middle East. Buying interest will continue to be limited by these factors, at least in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day today. The 9-day is moving below above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral today, but slow stochastics are still into oversold territory. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 1,234.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under solid technical support at the June low of 1,229.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is Monday's high of 1,247.20. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Friday's high of 1,251.30.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,240.80
1st Support:------ 1,234.40
2nd Support:------ 1,228.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,246.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,253.30
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish today, as slow stochastics are well into oversold territory. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,465.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1,487.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,500.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,477.50
1st Support:------ 1,467.75
2nd Support:------ 1,455.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,489.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,499.50
September Dow: For today, heavy sell stops likely reside just below support at the June contract low of 10,740 and then just below support at of 10,700. Light buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 10,850 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Friday's high of 10,910. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are turning bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,801
1st Support:------ 10,753
2nd Support:------ 10,708
1st Resistance:--- 10,846
2nd Resistance:--- 10,894
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago. Technical odds have increased that near-term lows are in place in bonds and notes. Also, the Middle East tensions will limit selling interest in the bonds again today.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 18/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance last week's high of at 107 26/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 107 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 14/32
1st Support:----- 107 8/32
2nd Support:----- 107 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 27/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bearish again today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance the overnight high of 105.11.0, and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at last week's high of 105.16.5. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish again today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 105.04.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.10.0
1st Support:------ 105.04.0
2nd Support:------ 104.31.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.15.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.21.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early
morning dealings, supported on a flight to quality due to
Middle East tensions. Slow stochastics are bullish again
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 86.62 and then at the
June high of 86.68. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00
and then at the overnight low of 85.84. The September Euro
is solidly lower in early trading. The Euro today finds
sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term
technical support at the overnight low of 1.2580 and then
heavy sell stops just below support at the June low of
1.2550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.2600 and then at 1.2650. Buy stops likely reside
just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are still bearish today.
METALS
Gold is trading lower in early morning dealings. Prices hit
overnight a fresh seven-week high of $677.50, but have
backed well off that high. In August gold, shorter-term
technical support is seen at the overnight low of $663.10.
Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then
just below support at $660.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above resistance at $670.00 and then more buy stops just
above resistance at $675.00.
ENERGIES
Prices are trading solidly lower in early electronic
dealings, and nearer the overnight low. In August crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$77.00 and then at the overnight high of $77.74. Look for
sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight
low of $75.60, and then just below support at $75.00.
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight electronic trading.
It was very hot and dry over the weekend in the Corn Belt,
but there is a chance for some rain early this week. This
morning's updated weather models will dictate today's price
action. Don't place a lot of emphasis on overnight price
action during a weather market in grains, as weather
updates can turn markets on a dime. For corn, we are right
at the critical pollination stage for much of the crop. My
bias is that the weather market in the grains is not
finished and that there will be more upside fireworks in
the near term--but trading will likely remain choppy.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is solid
losses in the crude oil market, as there are rumors in the
market that Iran may be willing to negotiate with the West
on its nuclear program. The Middle East tensions are still
very high, and that will keep all traders on edge today.
However, there are ideas that Israel's offensive in Lebanon
may be about finished, and that is also pressuring gold and
crude oil. The U.S. dollar is solidly higher versus the
other major currencies. Stock indexes are slightly lower in
early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly
lower. Gold is trading slightly lower in early dealings.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the New York Federal Reserve manufacturing
index and the industrial production and capacity
utilization reports. It's a light report day today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading,
following strong losses last week. Bears have |
