TODAY'S KEY ECONOMIC DATA

On tap for a busy Wednesday is the MBA refinancing index, the ADP pre-jobs report estimate, the employment cost index, the U.S. Treasury's refunding announcement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks to the Senate today on exchange rates, the Chicago PMI index, Construction spending, weekly DOE crude oil stocks, President Bush speaks on the economy in New York, and finally, the two-day FOMC meeting concludes early this afternoon.

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

My bias is that the upside in crude oil is limited, after big gains on Tuesday. Much of those gains were short covering in a bear market. The news Tuesday that the Saudis would adhere to their lower quota, as prescribed by OPEC, was not shocking news. I look for the recent rally to be a selling opportunity by the smart money.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are weaker in quiet early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Look for more active trading today and the rest of this week, amid the heavy U.S. economic data slate.

March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,429.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,425.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,434.50 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:

Pivot:------------ 1,431.40
1st Support:------ 1,428.25
2nd Support:------ 1,422.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,437.15
2nd Resistance:--- 1,440.25

March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Monday's low of 789.80. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 802.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the contract high of 809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:------------ 799.65
1st Support:------ 797.05
2nd Support:------ 792.40
1st Resistance:--- 804.30
2nd Resistance:--- 806.90

March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,510 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 12,464. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,571 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:

Pivot:------------ 12,547
1st Support:------ 12,523
2nd Support:------ 12,486
1st Resistance:--- 12,584
2nd Resistance:--- 12,608