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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
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| March 2007 »
February 2007 Archives
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is modestly higher lower in early trading, on a tepid short covering bounce from recent losses. Slow stochastics are neutral for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.46 and then at this week's high of 83.68. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday's low of 83.00 and then at the January low of 82.70. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The June Euro is modestly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3239 and then more stops just below support at 1.3200. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday's high of 1.3318 and then at 1.3350. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
METALS
Gold is solidly lower in early trading today, but well off the overnight low. Gold traders will watch the stock indexes today for direction. Remember that high levels of uncertainty usually prompt traders to liquidate positions, meaning selling pressure in gold after recent strong gains. In April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $670.00 and then at the overnight low of $665.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $680.50 and then just above resistance at $685.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings, but near the overnight high, as uncertainty prevails this morning. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $61.15 and then just above resistance at $61.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $59.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher overnight on a corrective bounce from big losses Tuesday. Grain traders today will keenly watch the "outside markets" for direction. Any more weakness in the stock market will create more uncertainty which will very likely lead to more selling pressure in the grains. My bias is that a bigger corrective pullback is looming in the coming weeks, and it could be beginning this week. The next major piece of fundamental news for the grain markets to digest will be the March 30th USDA planting intentions report. But this Friday's annual USDA Ag Forum will also have some fresh fundamental news for the grain bulls to digest.
Wednesday, February 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solid bounce in U.S. stock index prices following the huge plunge in the markets Tuesday.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading the rest of this week will be extra important for many markets, including the U.S. stock indexes. While the solid rebound in the U.S. stock indexes overnight is a good early sign for the stock index bulls, they are not out of the woods just yet. It would not surprise me to see some strong downside price pressure in stock indexes today, once the U.S. stock markets are open. Key will be this: Will traders view the overnight corrective bounce in the stock indexes as just a higher level at which to bail out of long positions? Or, will bargain hunters come back into stocks in a strong fashion and push stock index prices sharply higher? Traders will know more about the health of the U.S. stock market at the end of this week. Remember, too, that today is the last trading day of the month, which will only add to market volatility today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning electronic trading, on a corrective bounce. But prices are off their overnight highs. Trading the rest of this week will be critical for stock indexes.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,389.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,412.40 and then at 1,420.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,412.35
1st Support:------ 1,372.00
2nd Support:------ 1,348.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,435.79
2nd Resistance:--- 1,476.05
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 794.20. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 790.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 810.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 802.80
1st Support:------ 785.60
2nd Support:------ 777.00
1st Resistance:--- 811.40
2nd Resistance:--- 828.60
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,210 and then more stops just below support at 12,150. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,400 and then at 12,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,393
1st Support:------ 12,097
2nd Support:------ 11,913
1st Resistance:--- 12,577
2nd Resistance:--- 12,873
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today, on a corrective pullback after big gains on Tuesday. Treasuries will likely trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock indexes for the rest of this week. But Treasury bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 114 2/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 6/32
1st Support:----- 112 10/32
2nd Support:----- 111 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 4/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.28.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 108.16.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.23.0
1st Support:------ 108.04.0
2nd Support:------ 107.13.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.14.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.01.0
Tuesday, February 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly lower U.S. stock index prices and higher U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It would not surprise me in the coming few weeks to see a healthy downside correction in the stock indexes--something more than just a one-day profit-taking pullback. When the significant correction does occur, it's likely the U.S. Treasuries will be the beneficiary, via assets flowing from stocks and into the Treasuries (bonds and notes). To extrapolate further, the recent rally in the bond market could be a precursor to an impending stock market correction.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning electronic trading. Weakness in Asian stock markets led to some fresh overnight selling pressure in the U.S. equities. The stock index bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral but turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,441.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the February low of 1,435.10. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,448.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,452.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,453.40
1st Support:------ 1,447.15
2nd Support:------ 1,441.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,458.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,465.10
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today, but turning neutral. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 810.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 820.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 825.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 825.25
1st Support:------ 819.20
2nd Support:------ 813.30
1st Resistance:--- 831.15
2nd Resistance:--- 837.20
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,630 and then more stops just below support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,718 and then at 12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,667
1st Support:------ 12,617
2nd Support:------ 12,579
1st Resistance:--- 12,705
2nd Resistance:--- 12,755
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are solidly higher early today, as prices hit another fresh seven-week high overnight and the bulls have solid upside near-term technical momentum.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 1/32
1st Support:----- 111 24/32
2nd Support:----- 111 10/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 24/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.06.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.31.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.26.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.29.0
1st Support:------ 107.26.0
2nd Support:------ 107.19.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.04.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.07.0
Monday, February 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is stronger U.S. stock index and Treasury prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I was up in Ely, Minnesota snowmobiling over the weekend when one of the biggest snowstorms in years hit the Midwest. Ironically, in Ely (which is about 10 miles from the Canada border) it did not snow at all, when it would have been nice to have a bit of fresh snow to ride in! While I knew before heading up to Ely that a winter storm was on the way, I did not expect it to be so big and powerful. Where I live in Iowa, we received an inch rain turning to ice before it snowed. Many thousands of homes in Iowa have lost electrical power due to the ice storm, and won't get it back for a while. I did take my laptop computers up to Ely with me, just in case I did get stranded because of the storm. And I was able to find an "Internet Café" to do a bit of work from on Saturday. I did make it back home Sunday night, with little travel problems. Ironically, I enjoy traveling to remote places like Ely, or the western U.S. I like the wilderness, yet I take my laptops to stay in touch with the markets! I just wanted to share my weekend experience with you, my valued reader. And I do like to hear from you and any experiences you have. You can drop me an email any time, even just to say hi, at jim@jimwyckoff.com .--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in quiet early morning electronic trading. The stock index bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and there are no early technical clues markets are near a top. However, the markets have been trading sideways for about to weeks.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,453.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,450.70. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,459.30 and then at the contract high of 1,464.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,454.60
1st Support:------ 1,449.90
2nd Support:------ 1,446.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,458.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,463.20
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 824.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 820.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 831.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 835.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 827.30
1st Support:------ 824.00
2nd Support:------ 820.75
1st Resistance:--- 830.60
2nd Resistance:--- 833.85
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,651 and then more stops just below support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 12,710 and then at 12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,675
1st Support:------ 12,640
2nd Support:------ 12,616
1st Resistance:--- 12,699
2nd Resistance:--- 12,734
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, as prices have hit a fresh seven-week high overnight and the bulls are right back in business and have the near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 10/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 15/32
1st Support:----- 111 3/32
2nd Support:----- 110 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 even
2nd Resistance:-- 112 12/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.22.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.19.0
1st Support:------ 107.11.0
2nd Support:------ 107.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.05.0
Thursday, February 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The real feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold on Wednesday led a surge of "fund" buying across most of the raw commodities futures markets. Corn hit a 10-year high, soybeans hit a nearly four-year high, and crude oil closed above $60.00 a barrel. The Continuous Commodity Index is again closing in on a 30-plus year high. Of course, this is good news for the commodity market bulls, as more gains in those markets are likely in the near term. However, it's not so good news for the Treasury market bulls. Inflation, including raw commodity price inflation, is the arch enemy of the bond market bulls. For stock index traders, rising commodity prices also tend to favor the bearish camp, as inflationary pressures could lead to rising interest rates.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in quiet early morning electronic trading. The stock index bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and there are no early technical clues markets are near a top.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,454.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,452.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,463.70 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,459.25
1st Support:------ 1,455.70
2nd Support:------ 1,451.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,464.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,467.55
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 823.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 820.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 829.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 835.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 826.75
1st Support:------ 824.75
2nd Support:------ 821.00
1st Resistance:--- 830.50
2nd Resistance:--- 832.50
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,725 and then more stops just below support at 12,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 12,787 and then at the contract high of 12,815. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,757
1st Support:------ 12,726
2nd Support:------ 12,695
1st Resistance:--- 12,788
2nd Resistance:--- 12,819
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today, as a bearish CPI report on Wednesday has spooked the bulls a bit.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week's high of 111 27/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 111 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 15/32
1st Support:----- 111 4/32
2nd Support:----- 110 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 4/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.18.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week's high of 107.26.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Wednesday's low of 107.12.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.19.0
1st Support:------ 107.13.0
2nd Support:------ 107.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.31.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early trading. Slow stochastics are bullish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 84.28 and then at 84.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 84.01 and then at Tuesday's low of 83.81. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3135 and then more stops just below support at 1.3100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3181 and then at Tuesday's high of 1.3207. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
METALS
Gold is slightly higher in early trading today, on a tepid bounce after big losses Tuesday. In April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday's low of $659.00 and then at $655.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $665.00 and then just above resistance at $670.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings. Bulls are fading. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $59.00 and then just above resistance at $59.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $58.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $57.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed overnight. Corn and soybeans are still technically bullish, amid the specter of fresh fund buying coming into the market at any time. Soybeans have taken over the leadership role in the grain markets. Also, long-range weather forecasts for the Corn Belt planting and growing seasons are starting to be issued, and they are favoring the bullish side. But look for bouts of profit-taking pressure at these higher price levels. Wheat is still technically weaker at present, but bulls have gained some momentum, and amid the strength in corn and beans. Grain traders will continue to closely watch the "outside markets" today (gold, crude oil).
Wednesday, February 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in quiet overnight/early morning trading today. Trading is likely to become more active in the financial markets following this morning's Consumer Price Index report.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
In the Treasury Bond and Treasury Note markets, it's not unusual for the daily trading range to expand significantly after a morning economic report like today's CPI report--and then contract a bit. (Remember that all markets move between periods of low price volatility and periods of high price volatility.) When the market volatility contracts a bit following the more active trading just after the report was released, a trader then has good technical support and resistance levels by which to gauge near-term price action: a move above the "reaction high" from the report would suggest a near-term uptrend. A move below the "reaction low" following the report would suggest a near-term downtrend in price. For more on the "collapse in volatility" phenomenon, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll send you a feature story I wrote a while back.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly lower in quiet early morning electronic trading, on mild profit-taking after new highs on Tuesday. The stock index bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,455.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,452.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's contract high of 1,463.70 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,459.25
1st Support:------ 1,454.80
2nd Support:------ 1,447.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,466.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,470.75
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 820.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 813.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 829.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 835.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 823.40
1st Support:------ 817.30
2nd Support:------ 807.40
1st Resistance:--- 833.30
2nd Resistance:--- 839.40
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,750 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,720. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 12,815 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,777
1st Support:------ 12,739
2nd Support:------ 12,682
1st Resistance:--- 12,834
2nd Resistance:--- 12,872
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. The bulls have fresh near-term technical momentum on their side, as the markets closed at six-week high closes Tuesday.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at last week's high of 111 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Tuesday's low of 111 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 17/32
1st Support:----- 111 11/32
2nd Support:----- 111 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 even
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 107.26.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.19.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 107.13.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.19.0
1st Support:------ 107.17.0
2nd Support:------ 107.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.27.0
Tuesday, February 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil and gold futures prices, following a long holiday weekend.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
For you stock market bulls out there: You should be pleased with the present state of the indexes, which are making a slow and unassuming grind higher. The types of market uptrends that are not flashy and tend to remain "under the radar screen" of the business news headlines are the types of uptrends that are likely to continue. One early warning signal that the uptrends in the major U.S. stock indexes are about to peter out would be significantly higher price volatility for a few sessions.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly lower in quiet early morning electronic trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: Prices did poke to a fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at last Friday's low of 1,454.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,450.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight contract high of 1,462.80 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,457.70
1st Support:------ 1,477.70
2nd Support:------ 1,452.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,460.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,462.90
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 811.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 821.30. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 825.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 817.10
1st Support:------ 814.10
2nd Support:------ 808.50
1st Resistance:--- 822.70
2nd Resistance:--- 825.70
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,766 and then more stops just below support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 12,803 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,781
1st Support:------ 12,772
2nd Support:------ 12,757
1st Resistance:--- 12,796
2nd Resistance:--- 12,805
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. But the bulls do have some fresh near-term technical momentum on theirs side, as the markets closed at weekly high closes and set a fresh six-week high last Friday.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last Friday's high of 111 27/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 17/32
1st Support:----- 111 7/32
2nd Support:----- 110 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 4/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.18.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Friday's high of 107.26.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.13.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.20.0
1st Support:------ 107.14.0
2nd Support:------ 107.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.31.0
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 1828 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1773.00 would open the door for a possible test of January’s low crossing at 1747 later this winter. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 3.25 pts. at 1819.50 as of 6:13 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.
8:30 AM ET. Jan Import Prices (expected -1.5%; previous +1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Feb NY Fed Mfg Index (expected 10.0; previous 9.1)
8:30 AM ET. Feb 10 Jobless Claims (expected +4K; previous +3K)
9:00 AM ET. Dec Treasury Intl Capital Flows (previous $74.9B)
9:15 AM ET. Jan Capacity Utilization (expected 81.6%; previous 81.8%)
9:15 AM ET. Jan Indus Production (expected unchanged; previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. Feb 3 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous +0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. Feb 9 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Stocks (in billion cubic feet) expected –253; previous –224)
12:00 PM ET. Feb Philadelphia Fed Business Index (expected 5.0; previous 8.3)
13:00 PM ET. Feb NAHB Housing Index (previous 35)
4:30 PM ET. Money Supply
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 1828 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1773.00 would open the door for a possible test of January’s low crossing at 1747 later this winter. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 3.25 pts. at 1819.50 as of 6:13 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Wednesday’s close above the previous reaction high crossing at 1457.70 has renewed the long-term uptrend line. If March extends this week’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1473.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1435.10 would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market. The March S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 pts. at 1458.50 as of 6:16 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as they extend Wednesday’s rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 110-20. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish tempering the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 111-09 are needed to renew the rally off January’s low. If March renews this year’s rally, gap resistance crossing at 111-18 is the next upside target. If March renews this winter’s decline, the 62% retracement level of last year’s rally crossing at 108-27 is the next downside target.
ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was slightly higher in overnight trading but remains below the 50% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 58.64. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 75% retracement level crossing at 62.46 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when day session trading begins later this morning.
March heating oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.73. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January’s low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 179.72 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when day session trading begins later this morning.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 75% retracement level crossing at 166.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 153.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when day session trading begins later this morning.
March Henry Hub natural was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.417. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 6.828 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday’s gap crossing at 7.74 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when day session trading begins later this morning.
CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday’s decline below the lower boundary of this year’s trading range crossing at 84.25. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the rally off December’s low crossing at 83.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 85.25 would renew the rally off December’s low while opening the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of this fall’s decline crossing at 85.56 later this winter. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday’s rally above the reaction high crossing at 130.92 confirming an upside breakout of this year’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the decline off December’s high crossing at 132.253 is the next upside target. Closes below January’s low crossing at 129.01 would renew this winter’s decline. If March renews this winter’s decline, the 75% retracement level of this fall’s rally crossing at 127.912 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.9633 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above December’s high crossing at 1.9853 are needed to renew the rally off last October’s low. If March extends the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 1.9265 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening in early-day session trading.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends this week’s short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8123 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this winter’s decline, last October’s low crossing at .7951 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week’s low, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at .8684 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8501 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends this week’s short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8383 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below January’s low would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at .8023 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.
PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of 2006’s decline crossing at 670.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year’s rally, the 62% retracement level crossing at 692.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 657.60 are needed to confirm that a double top with December’s high has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a $0.30 to $0.60 higher opening in early day session trading.
March silver was higher overnight and is challenging the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 13.80. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, December’s high crossing at 14.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.542 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening when day session trading begins later this morning.
March copper was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 253.88. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 270 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-06 rally crossing at 209.43 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening when day session trading begins.
GRAINS
March corn was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally above the reaction high crossing at 4.09 1/4. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week’s low, January’s high crossing at 4.20 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes above January’s high would mark a resumption of this winter’s rally while opening the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of the 1096-1999 decline crossing at 4.59 later this year. Multiple closes below broken support crossing at 3.93 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February to mark a seasonal low. Overnight action indicates that March corn should open 3 to 5-cents higher when the day session begins later this morning.
March wheat was higher overnight due to short covering but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.55 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a double bottom with January’s low might be forming. Closes above last Friday’s high crossing at 4.70 1/2 are needed to confirm that a double bottom with January’s low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.86 1/2 are needed to renew the rally off January’s low. Closes below January’s low crossing at 4.47 3/4 would renew this winter’s decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of this fall’s rally crossing at 4.36. Overnight action indicates that March wheat should open 1 to 2-cents higher when the day session begins later this morning.
March Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.97 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 4.67 is the next downside target.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extend this week’s breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 7.52 1/2. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish hinting that additional short-term gains are possible. If March extends the rally off January’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 7.81 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.31 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action indicates that March soybeans should open 3 to 5-cents higher when the day session begins later this morning.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 235.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 212.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action indicates that March soybean meal should open steady to $0.30 higher when the day session begins later this morning.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.73. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the breakout above November’s high, weekly resistance crossing at 31.08 is the next upside target. Overnight action indicates that March soybean oil should open steady to 5-points higher when the day session begins later this morning.
LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews this year’s rally, fib resistance crossing at 69.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last week’s low crossing at 65.90 would confirm that a top has been posted.
March bellies closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this year’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 108.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
April cattle closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.10 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday and spiked above the 50% retracement level of this fall’s rally crossing at 101.04. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 62% retracement level of this fall’s rally crossing at 103.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this year’s decline, the 62% retracement level of this fall’s rally crossing at 112.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday consolidated some of this month’s rally but remains above January’s high crossing at 16.96. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. If March extends this month’s rally, the 87% retracement level of last year’s decline crossing at 17.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.56. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 9.70 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, November’s low crossing at 50.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Wednesday, February 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
*** NOTE: I will be out of the office, doing speaking engagements, Thursday and Friday. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will produce the morning blog reports those days. Ken's report is a bit different than my own, but still provides valuable market information.--Jim
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold futures prices amid a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. Gold hit a fresh multi-month high of $675.00 in overnight trading.
TODAY'S KEY U.S. ECONOMIC DATA
On tap for today is the MBA refinancing index, retail sales data, business inventories, weekly DOE crude oil stocks data, and Fed chairman Bernanke testifies before the Senate today on the U.S. economic outlook.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold hit a fresh 6.5-month high of $675.00 today. Bulls are very strong and eyeing the $700.00 level. My bias is that key price mark will be hit sooner rather than later. Gold has divorced itself from the flagging crude oil market, which is another bullish signal for the precious yellow metal. If the U.S. dollar weakens against the other major currencies, gold's ascent will be steeper.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,445.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,440.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,457.70 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,442.60
1st Support:------ 1,435.45
2nd Support:------ 1,430.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,447.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,454.70
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 810.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 804.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 820.80. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 825.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 813.60
1st Support:------ 811.70
2nd Support:------ 808.10
1st Resistance:--- 817.20
2nd Resistance:--- 819.10
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,650 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,615. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,700 and then at the contract high of 12,735. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,663
1st Support:------ 12,638
2nd Support:------ 12,591
1st Resistance:--- 12,710
2nd Resistance:--- 12,735
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is moving below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday's high of 110 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 110 19/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 8/32
1st Support:----- 110 even
2nd Support:----- 109 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 110 22/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 107.01.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is moving below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday's low of 106.23.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.27.0
1st Support:------ 106.22.0
2nd Support:------ 106.19.0
1st Resistance:--- 106.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.03.0
Tuesday, February 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold futures prices amid a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
TODAY'S KEY U.S. ECONOMIC DATA
On tap for today is the ICSC chain store sales report, the U.S. trade deficit report, and the Redbook retail sales index.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The next couple of trading sessions will be extra important for crude oil traders. The inability of prices to push above $60.00 a barrel the past week has given the bears some renewed confidence. If we see follow-through selling pressure today or Wednesday in crude, following big losses Monday, then that would strongly suggest prices drifting in a range between $50.00 and $60.00 a barrel in the coming weeks.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. The bulls have faded a bit after scoring fresh contract highs recently, but still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 1,435.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,430.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,444.70 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,439.25
1st Support:------ 1,433.80
2nd Support:------ 1,429.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,443.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,448.85
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 804.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 812.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the contract high of 820.80. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 808.65
1st Support:------ 805.30
2nd Support:------ 801.40
1st Resistance:--- 812.55
2nd Resistance:--- 815.90
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,560 and then more stops just below support at 12,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,626 and then at 12,675. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,590
1st Support:------ 12,554
2nd Support:------ 12,524
1st Resistance:--- 12,620
2nd Resistance:--- 12,656
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is moving below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday's high of 110 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 11/32
1st Support:----- 110 4/32
2nd Support:----- 109 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 17/32
2nd Resistance:-- 110 24/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the Monday's high of 107.01.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is moving below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.28.0
1st Support:------ 106.24.0
2nd Support:------ 106.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.00.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.04.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading. Slow stochastics are bullish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 85.09 and then at the January high of 85.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 84.61 and then at last week's low of 84.49. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2962 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 1.2938. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3000 and then at the overnight high of 1.3058. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
METALS
Gold is modestly lower in early trading today, on a profit-taking pullback from big gains last week. In April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $667.30 and then at $665.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at Friday's high of $673.90 and then just above resistance at $675.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings, on some bearish Saudi rhetoric. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. But closing prices above major psychological resistance at $60.00 has still not been achieved. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $60.00 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of $60.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.85, and then more sell stops just below support at $58.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed overnight, after good gains seen late last week for corn and beans. Friday morning's USDA supply and demand data was deemed bullish for corn and neutral for beans and wheat. Corn and soybeans are still technically bullish, amid fresh fund buying. Wheat is still technically weaker at present, but strength in corn and beans will continue to limit selling interest in wheat. Grain traders will continue to closely watch the "outside markets" today (gold, crude oil).
Monday, February 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices on a Saudi Arabian official's comment that more OPEC production cuts may not be needed.
TODAY'S KEY U.S. ECONOMIC DATA
On tap for a light data day today is only the monthly U.S. budget statement.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
For those of you that trade futures markets and have access to the newswire services like Dow Jones--even the free news headlines via some websites--watch for the Monday morning reports on the latest Commitments of Traders data issued by the CFTC. Those reports give you an idea of what the big commercial, big speculative and small traders are doing in a given market--by examining the open interest carried by each group. If I'm trading a market, I like to know what "the big boys" are up to in that market. For more on the COT reports, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll email you a feature I wrote.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly weaker in early morning electronic trading. The bulls are fading a bit after weekly low closes produced on Friday.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 1,437.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,430.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,444.70 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,445.65
1st Support:------ 1,434.50
2nd Support:------ 1,426.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,454.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,465.25
March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 805.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 815.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Friday's high of 820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 812.40
1st Support:------ 804.80
2nd Support:------ 798.15
1st Resistance:--- 819.00
2nd Resistance:--- 826.65
March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,570 and then more stops just below support at 12,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,650 and then at Friday's high of 12,705. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,630
1st Support:------ 12,554
2nd Support:------ 12,495
1st Resistance:--- 12,689
2nd Resistance:--- 12,765
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage and are regaining momentum.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's high of 111 2/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 21/32
1st Support:----- 110 7/32
2nd Support:----- 109 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 11/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.01.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Friday's high of 107.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.26.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.20.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.02.0
1st Support:------ 106.27.0
2nd Support:------ 106.21.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.08.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.15.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading. Slow stochastics are neutral for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 85.00 and then at the January high of 85.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 84.55 and then at 84.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3000 and then more stops just below support at 1.2950. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3066 and then at 1.3092. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
METALS
Gold is slightly lower in early trading today. In April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $660.00 and then at $657.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the February high of $666.50 and then just above resistance at $670.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower in early electronic dealings, after pushing above the key $60.00 level overnight. Bulls have fresh upside technical momentum after big gains Thursday. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $60.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $60.42. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.30, and then more sell stops just below support at $59.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher overnight, on follow-through buying from good gains Thursday. Bulls are having a good week and higher closes on Friday would likely attract additional fund buying early next week. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's USDA supply and demand data. That report is expected to be bullish corn and neutral to bearish for soybeans. Wheat is still technically weaker at present, but strength in corn and beans will support wheat. Grain traders will continue to closely watch the "outside markets" today (gold, crude oil).
Friday, February 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today was crude oil poking above major technical and psychological resistance at $60.00 a barrel. However, prices then backed off and are presently trading modestly lower, at around $59.50.
TODAY'S KEY U.S. ECONOMIC DATA
On tap for today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report. St. Louis Fed president Poole, Cleveland Fed president Pinanalto and Dallas Fed president Fisher speak today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Legendary trader W.D. Gann said: "A man who will not work hard and study and pay in advance for success will never get it. If you will put in the time, study and go over the records (of markets) you will be convinced that (Gann's trading rules) work and that you can make money by following the main trend of the commodity market."
Gann's favorite chart for trading most commodities is the weekly chart. But he also used monthly, daily and quarterly charts. "By crossing old tops and showing activity, it is a good time to buy, or when prices break old bottoms…it is a good time to sell short." For more on Gann, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll email you a couple of feature stories I wrote.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to firmer in early morning electronic trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,446.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's contract high of 1,457.70 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,452.15
1st Support:------ 1,448.60
2nd Support:------ 1,443.25
1st Resistance:- |
