* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

In the Treasury Bond and Treasury Note markets, it's not unusual for the daily trading range to expand significantly after a morning economic report like today's CPI report--and then contract a bit. (Remember that all markets move between periods of low price volatility and periods of high price volatility.) When the market volatility contracts a bit following the more active trading just after the report was released, a trader then has good technical support and resistance levels by which to gauge near-term price action: a move above the "reaction high" from the report would suggest a near-term uptrend. A move below the "reaction low" following the report would suggest a near-term downtrend in price. For more on the "collapse in volatility" phenomenon, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll send you a feature story I wrote a while back.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are slightly lower in quiet early morning electronic trading, on mild profit-taking after new highs on Tuesday. The stock index bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,455.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,452.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's contract high of 1,463.70 and then at 1,465.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:

Pivot:------------ 1,459.25
1st Support:------ 1,454.80
2nd Support:------ 1,447.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,466.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,470.75

March Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 820.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 813.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 829.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 835.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:------------ 823.40
1st Support:------ 817.30
2nd Support:------ 807.40
1st Resistance:--- 833.30
2nd Resistance:--- 839.40

March Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,750 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,720. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 12,815 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:

Pivot:------------ 12,777
1st Support:------ 12,739
2nd Support:------ 12,682
1st Resistance:--- 12,834
2nd Resistance:--- 12,872

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. The bulls have fresh near-term technical momentum on their side, as the markets closed at six-week high closes Tuesday.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at last week's high of 111 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Tuesday's low of 111 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 111 17/32
1st Support:----- 111 11/32
2nd Support:----- 111 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 even

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 107.26.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.19.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 107.13.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:

Pivot:------------ 107.19.0
1st Support:------ 107.17.0
2nd Support:------ 107.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.27.0