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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« February 2007 |
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March 2007 Archives
Friday, March 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is modestly higher crude oil prices that have pushed above $66.00 a barrel, amid rising tensions in the Persian Gulf.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
There are several U.S. economic reports due out today, which the stock and financial markets will closely scrutinize. Traders will again keep one eye on crude oil prices. Price action today will be extra important in many markets, including stock indexes, Treasuries, grains, metals and currencies. It's the last trading day of the month and the quarter, too.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading, with buying interest limited amid the recent sharp gains in crude oil prices. The stock index bulls are fading this week, after a good week last week.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,423.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,420.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,438.30 and then at 1,451.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,431.00
1st Support:------ 1,423.65
2nd Support:------ 1,415.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,438.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,446.20
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish today, but just barely. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 797.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 790.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 809.55. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 813.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 803.60
1st Support:------ 797.70
2nd Support:------ 791.10
1st Resistance:--- 810.25
2nd Resistance:--- 816.20
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,400 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 12,330. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,467 and then just above resistance at 12,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,408
1st Support:------ 12,348
2nd Support:------ 12,281
1st Resistance:--- 12,475
2nd Resistance:--- 12,535
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower early today. Bulls are fading this week and bears would gain better downside technical momentum by producing a weekly and monthly low close today.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Thursday's high of 111 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 111 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 15/32
1st Support:----- 111 8/32
2nd Support:----- 111 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 27/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 108.13.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday's low of 108.03.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.07.0
1st Support:------ 108.01.0
2nd Support:------ 107.30.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.10.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.16.0
Thursday, March 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock index futures. Bulls have faded in the stock indexes and do need to step up and show some power soon.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil has again become the key "outside market" for many markets, amid the heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf. Any flare-up of tensions in the Gulf will prompt another price spike in crude. Any significant easing of tensions in the Gulf will likely prompt a sell off. All traders will keep one eye on the price of crude for at least the near term.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning electronic trading, amid steady crude oil prices. The stock index bulls are fading this week, after a good week last week.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,428.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,424.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,436.50 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,430.05
1st Support:------ 1,423.60
2nd Support:------ 1,417.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,436.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,442.55
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 805.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 798.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 813.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week's high of 818.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 802.95
1st Support:------ 798.90
2nd Support:------ 793.95
1st Resistance:--- 807.90
2nd Resistance:--- 811.95
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,350 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,330. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,400 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 12,448. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,389
1st Support:------ 12,329
2nd Support:------ 12,271
1st Resistance:--- 12,447
2nd Resistance:--- 12,507
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today. Bulls are fading this week. Bearish remarks from Fed Chair Bernanke on Wednesday also deflated the bulls.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 111 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 24/32
1st Support:----- 111 8/32
2nd Support:----- 110 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 18/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 108.06.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.16.0
1st Support:------ 108.06.0
2nd Support:------ 108.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.22.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.00.0
Wednesday, March 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The real feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharply higher crude oil prices, amid heightened tensions between Iran and the West.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With crude oil prices trading up around $2.00 a barrel this morning, this market will be the most important "outside market" for many other markets today and in the near term. The soaring crude market may prompt renewed "commodity fund" interest on the long side in raw commodities markets such as metals, grains and livestock futures. Indeed, in early morning trading I don't see any raw commodity futures market trading lower.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading, amid the higher crude oil prices. The stock index bulls are now fading this week, after a good week last week.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,432.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,426.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,440.50 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,446.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,440.95
1st Support:------ 1,435.90
2nd Support:------ 1,431.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,445.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,450.75
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 795.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 810.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 813.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 809.95
1st Support:------ 806.40
2nd Support:------ 802.95
1st Resistance:--- 813.40
2nd Resistance:--- 816.95
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at this week's low of 12,453 and then more stops just below support at 12,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,529 and then at this week's high of 12,575. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,490
1st Support:------ 12,450
2nd Support:------ 12,417
1st Resistance:--- 12,523
2nd Resistance:--- 12,563
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today, on a bit of a flight-to-quality bid due to tensions in the Persian Gulf. Bulls still have some heavy lifting to do in the near term, to get back the technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's and Tuesday's high of 112 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 111 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 25/32
1st Support:----- 111 18/32
2nd Support:----- 111 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 6/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 108.23.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday's low of 108.10.5, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of 108.06.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.14.0
1st Support:------ 108.09.0
2nd Support:------ 108.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.16.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.21.0
Tuesday, March 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today. U.S. stock indexes and Treasury futures prices are weaker.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Most of you long-time traders have probably heard of the Italian math wizard Fibonacci. His math formulas have been used in trading markets for decades, and are legitimate. If you send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll send you back a feature story I wrote on Fibonacci. I think you'll find it very interesting.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading. The indexes are still pausing after recent solid gains, and these pauses are not bearish.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,440.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday's low of 1,433.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,451.00 and then at 1,455.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,442.70
1st Support:------ 1,436.40
2nd Support:------ 1,427.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,451.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,457.90
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 807.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 818.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 812.70
1st Support:------ 808.15
2nd Support:------ 802.95
1st Resistance:--- 817.90
2nd Resistance:--- 822.45
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 12,453. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 12,600 and then at 12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,520
1st Support:------ 12,466
2nd Support:------ 12,398
1st Resistance:--- 12,588
2nd Resistance:--- 12,642
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today. Bears have solid downside technical momentum on their side. Bulls should be worried that a bullish U.S. economic report on Monday (surprisingly weaker U.S. home sales) did not give the market much of a lift at all.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's high of 112 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 111 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 30/32
1st Support:----- 111 17/32
2nd Support:----- 111 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 23/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 108.23.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 108.06.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.15.0
1st Support:------ 108.07.0
2nd Support:------ 107.31.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.23.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.31.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on short covering following recent losses. Slow stochastics are bullish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.20 and then at 83.40. Shorter-term support is seen at 83.00 and then at 82.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The June Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Prices are seeing profit-taking pressure after hitting a three-month high last week. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3298 and then more stops just below support at 1.3250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3337 and then at Friday's high of 1.3387. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
METALS
Gold is higher in early trading today. In June gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $663.30 and then at Friday's low of $661.20. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $670.00 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of $671.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings, and have hit a fresh three-week high, due to tensions between Iran and the U.S. and U.K. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this month's high of $63.75 and then just above resistance at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $62.34, and then more sell stops just below support at $62.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower overnight. This coming Friday is the big day for which traders have been waiting: the USDA Planting Intentions report. Look for high volatility on Friday, as it is virtually assured the report will be a surprise to some traders, as there is no real consensus on what intended planted corn and soybean acres will be forecast by USDA. Also, wet weather forecast for parts of the Corn Belt this week will limit selling interest in corn.
Monday, March 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in quieter overnight/early morning trading today are firmer stock index futures prices, and higher gold and crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Heightened tensions between Iran and the U.K. and U.S. will limit selling interest in gold and crude oil futures early this week. And any escalation in rhetoric is likely to send prices of both commodities solidly higher. This situation, if not soon resolved, could also begin to support the U.S. Treasuries on a flight-to-quality basis.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. The indexes are pausing after recent solid gains, and these pauses are not bearish.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,440.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,435.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,451.00 and then at 1,455.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,447.25
1st Support:------ 1,443.50
2nd Support:------ 1,439.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,450.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,454.55
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 810.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 805.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 818.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 815.20
1st Support:------ 813.35
2nd Support:------ 811.20
1st Resistance:--- 817.35
2nd Resistance:--- 819.20
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,496 and then more stops just below support at 12,440. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 12,600 and then at 12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,567
1st Support:------ 12,535
2nd Support:------ 12,502
1st Resistance:--- 12,600
2nd Resistance:--- 12,632
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today, after strong losses last week that produced bearish weekly low closes on Friday. Bears have solid downside technical momentum on their side.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's high of 112 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 31/32
1st Support:----- 111 20/32
2nd Support:----- 111 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 18/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this month's low of 108.07.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.15.0
1st Support:------ 108.07.0
2nd Support:------ 108.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.21.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.29.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading, on tepid short covering following recent losses. Prices Thursday hit a fresh three-month low. Slow stochastics are bullish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.00 and then at this week's high of 83.17. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.60 and then at Thursday's low of 82.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The June Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh three-month high Thusday. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3346 and then more stops just below support at 1.3300. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3400 and then at the contract high of 1.3460. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
METALS
Gold is near steady in early trading today. In June gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $677.50 and then at $665.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $671.50 and then just above resistance at $675.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher in early electronic dealings, after strong gains Thursday. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $63.00 and then just above resistance at $63.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $61.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to firmer overnight. I visited the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday afternoon and spoke with several grain traders. They concur that focus is keenly on the March 30 USDA Planting Intentions report. Also, wet early-spring weather in the Corn Belt is also garnering trader attention and is a supportive factor for corn and soybeans. Look for choppier trading ahead of the March 30 Planting Intentions report.
Friday, March 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is firmer stock index futures prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Stock index traders took a "rest day" Thursday following strong gains Wednesday. That sets the stage for an extra important day of trading in the indexes Friday. The bulls today need to show important follow-through strength from Wednesday's big gains. If the indexes close near their weekly highs today, then that would be technically bullish and would be one clue that near-term lows are in place.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,441.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,435.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,450.90 and then at 1,455.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,445.70
1st Support:------ 1,440.50
2nd Support:------ 1,436.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,450.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,455.40
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 810.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 805.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 818.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 814.47
1st Support:------ 810.70
2nd Support:------ 807.00
1st Resistance:--- 818.20
2nd Resistance:--- 822.00
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,496 and then more stops just below support at 12,440. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,575 and then at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,539
1st Support:------ 12,502
2nd Support:------ 12,460
1st Resistance:--- 12,581
2nd Resistance:--- 12,618
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today, after strong losses Thursday. Bulls are fading as bears have some fresh technical momentum on their side.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 112 25/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 111 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 8/32
1st Support:----- 111 22/32
2nd Support:----- 111 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 5/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.24.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Thursday's high of 108.29.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday's low of 108.14.5, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of 108.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.21.0
1st Support:------ 108.11.0
2nd Support:------ 108.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.04.0
Thursday, March 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold and crude oil prices and lower U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Stock index bulls are making an impressive recovery from this month's lows, and gained good upside technical momentum with solid gains posted on Wednesday. But my bias is that there are still some rough waters ahead in the U.S. stock indexes. Trading action the rest of this week will be extra important for the stock indexes. The bulls need to show that important follow-through strength from Wednesday's big gains. If the indexes close near their weekly highs on Friday, then that would be technically bullish and would be one clue that near-term lows are in place.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,440.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,435.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,449.50 and then at 1,455.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,438.50
1st Support:------ 1,427.50
2nd Support:------ 1,410.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,456.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,467.00
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 810.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 805.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 815.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 809.60
1st Support:------ 803.70
2nd Support:------ 792.85
1st Resistance:--- 820.40
2nd Resistance:--- 826.35
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,440 and then more stops just below support at 12,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 12,569 and then at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,481
1st Support:------ 12,392
2nd Support:------ 12,262
1st Resistance:--- 12,611
2nd Resistance:--- 12,700
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today. Prices have backed off after a late rally Wednesday in the wake of a bullish FOMC announcement.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 112 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this month's low of 112 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 21/32
1st Support:----- 112 7/32
2nd Support:----- 111 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 18/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 109.03.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this month's high of 109.11.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 108.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.15.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.24.0
1st Support:------ 108.14.0
2nd Support:------ 108.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.16.0
Wednesday, March 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold prices. Traders are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which ends early this afternoon.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Stock index bulls are making an impressive recovery from this month's lows. But my bias is that there are still some rough waters ahead in the U.S. stock indexes. Trading action the rest of this week will be extra important for the stock indexes. If the indexes close near their weekly highs on Friday, that would be technically bullish and would be one clue that near-term lows are in place.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,420.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday's low of 1,412.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,426.50 and then at 1,430.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,419.90
1st Support:------ 1,416.00
2nd Support:------ 1,408.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,427.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,431.20
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 791.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 785.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 805.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 810.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 797.50
1st Support:------ 794.50
2nd Support:------ 788.50
1st Resistance:--- 803.50
2nd Resistance:--- 806.50
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,301 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 12,257. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,440 and then at 12,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,358
1st Support:------ 12,328
2nd Support:------ 12,272
1st Resistance:--- 12,414
2nd Resistance:--- 12,444
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower early today. Bulls need to step up and show more power soon. Look for more active trading following this afternoon's FOMC announcement.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 112 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this month's low of 112 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 21/32
1st Support:----- 112 13/32
2nd Support:----- 112 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 5/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 108.27.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 108.16.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this month's low of 108.07.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.22.0
1st Support:------ 108.18.0
2nd Support:------ 108.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.28.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.00.0
Tuesday, March 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real standout feature in overnight/early morning trading today, as traders await the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon. Trading in the financial markets may be quieter ahead of that key announcement.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Watch this morning's U.S. housing starts report. This economic data will be extra important for stock and financial market traders, given the sub-prime lending woes that have hit the markets recently. Today's housing starts report for February is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT, and is expected to be up 3.0% versus last month's big decline of 14.3%.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are mostly weaker in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,408.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,400.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,417.20 and then at 1,420.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,408.90
1st Support:------ 1,401.75
2nd Support:------ 1,387.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,422.95
2nd Resistance:--- 1,430.10
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 789.65. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 780.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 805.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 793.05
1st Support:------ 789.90
2nd Support:------ 786.55
1st Resistance:--- 796.45
2nd Resistance:--- 799.55
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 12,257. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,330 and then at 12,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,305
1st Support:------ 12,281
2nd Support:------ 12,232
1st Resistance:--- 12,354
2nd Resistance:--- 12,378
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today. Bulls have faded and need to step up and show power soon.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's high of 112 30/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 112 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this month's low of 112 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 18/32
1st Support:----- 112 10/32
2nd Support:----- 112 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 24/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 even
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 108.27.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 108.16.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this month's low of 108.07.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.21.0
1st Support:------ 108.14.0
2nd Support:------ 108.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.01.0
Monday, March 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher U.S. stock index futures prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil prices are back on the defensive and the crude bulls are fading. A close below last week's low of $58.50 in May crude oil would be significantly near-term technically bearish to suggest a move back toward $55.00 a barrel.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,394.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,390.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,409.70 and then at 1,415.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,401.30
1st Support:------ 1,392.90
2nd Support:------ 1,386.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,407.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,415.80
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 783.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 775.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 791.75. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week's high of 797.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 786.40
1st Support:------ 781.00
2nd Support:------ 777.65
1st Resistance:--- 789.77
2nd Resistance:--- 795.15
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,178 and then more stops just below support at 12,130. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 12,283 and then at 12,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,224
1st Support:------ 12,165
2nd Support:------ 12,119
1st Resistance:--- 12,270
2nd Resistance:--- 12,329
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today, as higher stock indexes early put some downside pressure on Treasuries.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Friday's high of 113 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 12/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday's low of 112 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this month's low of 112 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 24/32
1st Support:----- 112 16/32
2nd Support:----- 112 06/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 10/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 108.29.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this month's high of 109.11.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Friday's low of 108.16.5, and then more sell stops just below support at this month's low of 108.07.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.24.0
1st Support:------ 108.18.0
2nd Support:------ 108.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.04.0
METALS
Gold is higher in early trading today. In June gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $653.10 and then at $650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $659.10 and then just above resistance at $666.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in early trading. Prices hit a fresh 2.5-month low overnight. Slow stochastics are bearish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.00 and then at the overnight high of 83.35. Shorter-term support is seen at today's low of 82.74 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is sharply higher in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh nearly three-month high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3350 and then more stops just below support at 1.3318. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3400 and then at the December high of 1.3460. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early electronic dealings. Prices did hit a fresh three-week low overnight. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $60.50 and then just above resistance at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $59.61, and then more sell stops just below support at $59.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower overnight. Bulls are still on the defensive in grains. For the bulls to get technical momentum back on their side, they need to see some strong upside price action that includes fund participation on the long side. With the key March 30 USDA Planting Intentions report coming up, trading may be more subdued, but right now the path of least resistance still seems to be sideways to lower. Weekly low closes in the grains today would give the bulls solid downside technical strength heading into the new trading week next week.
Friday, March 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly lower U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. Gold is also higher in early dealings.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Price action in the U.S. stock indexes this week has again turned volatile--to the downside. Sub-prime lending market woes and some bearish U.S. economic data has the stock market bulls spooked again. Dow and S&P 500 stock index prices Wednesday hit multi-month lows but then did rebound to finish near the session highs. A new technical "line in the sand" has been drawn for these stock indexes: this week's lows. A push in prices below this week's lows would produce more near-term technical damage to suggest that market tops are in place and the prices will trend sideways to lower in the coming weeks, or longer. After a months-long rally to new multi-year highs (and even a fresh high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average), a significant downside stock market "correction" is not surprising. However, the technical posture of the U.S. stock indexes, along with the recent U.S. economic reports favoring the stock market bears, does suggest at least near-term market tops are in place in the stock indexes.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly lower in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,397.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,390.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,408.20 and then at 1,415.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,403.00
1st Support:------ 1,397.75
2nd Support:------ 1,392.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,406.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,413.90
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 782.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 775.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 790.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week's high of 797.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 787.35
1st Support:------ 784.45
2nd Support:------ 779.60
1st Resistance:--- 792.20
2nd Resistance:--- 795.10
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,200 and then more stops just below support at 12,130. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,285 and then at 12,388. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,247
1st Support:------ 12,209
2nd Support:------ 12,162
1st Resistance:--- 12,294
2nd Resistance:--- 12,332
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today, as traders awaited the U.S. CPI report this morning.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 12/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 112 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 112 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 25/32
1st Support:----- 112 17/32
2nd Support:----- 112 06/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 12/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 109.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this month's high of 109.11.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday's low of 108.21.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.26.0
1st Support:------ 108.22.0
2nd Support:------ 108.18.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.02.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Slow stochastics are bearish for today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.51 and then at this month's high of 84.05. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 83.16 and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 1.3226 and then more stops just below support at 1.3200. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Wednesday's high of 1.3296 and then at the February high of 1.3318. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
METALS
Gold is higher in early trading today, on a corrective bounce from recent losses. In April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $644.50 and then at $640.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $648.40 and then just above resistance at $650.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly higher in early electronic dealings. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $59.00 and then just above resistance at $59.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $58.00, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of $57.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher overnight, on a corrective bounce from losses absorbed on Wednesday. Bulls are still on the defensive in grains, and a short-covering bounce today would not be surprising. But for the bulls to get technical momentum back on their side, they need to see some strong upside price action that includes fund participation on the long side. With the key March 30 USDA Planting Intentions report coming up, trading may be more subdued, but right now the path of least resistance still seems to be sideways to lower.
Thursday, March 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a further rebound in the U.S. stock indexes, following good gains in Asian stock markets overnight and Wednesday's late rebound in the indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Wednesday's price action in the stock indexes produced fresh multi-month lows but then prices rebounded to close higher and near their session highs. While the session-high closes do give the bulls a bit of a reprieve, they are not out of the woods yet. In fact, the path of least resistance for the indexes is still sideways to lower. For the stock index bulls to gain some decent confidence that near-term lows are in place, they will have to produce closes above solid technical resistance at this month's highs. My bias is that the stock indexes have not yet put in their lows.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning electronic trading.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,400.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,395.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,410.00 and then at 1,420.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,393.20
1st Support:------ 1,384.40
2nd Support:------ 1,367.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,410.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,419.30
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 775.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 790.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 795.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 778.40
1st Support:------ 772.70
2nd Support:------ 761.30
1st Resistance:--- 789.80
2nd Resistance:--- 795.50
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,200 and then more stops just below support at 12,130. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,300 and then at 12,388. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,178
1st Support:------ 12,106
2nd Support:------ 11,963
1st Resistance:--- 12,321
2nd Resistance:--- 12,393
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today, as traders awaited the U.S. PPI report.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 12/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 3/32
1st Support:----- 112 20/32
2nd Support:----- 112 09/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 29/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 109.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this month's high of 109.11.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 108.16.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this month's low of 108.07.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.00.0
1st Support:------ 108.24.0
2nd Support:------ 108.17.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.07.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.15.0
Wednesday, March 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is modestly lower U.S. stock indexes and firmer U.S. Treasuries amid Tuesday’s U.S. stock market sell off and declines in Asian stock markets overnight. Renewed worries about the U.S. sub-prime lending market sparked Tuesday’s declines in stocks.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As the U.S. stock indexes are again on shaky ground, the U.S. Treasury markets will benefit from “flight-to-quality” buying from investors. Once again, the U.S. stock market has become the major “outside market” for all other markets to focus upon.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly lower in early morning electronic trading, on follow-through weakness from big losses on Tuesday. Closes below the March lows in the U.S. stock indexes would produce serious near-term chart damage to suggest more downside pressure in the coming weeks. The lines are drawn in the sand for the bulls: defending last week’s lows.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish again today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but has turned down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,388.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More and heavier sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week’s low of 1,384.30. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,400.45
1st Support:------ 1,381.00
2nd Support:------ 1,370.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,411.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,430.85
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 775.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 770.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 780.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 785.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 781.20
1st Support:------ 770.10
2nd Support:------ 763.95
1st Resistance:--- 787.40
2nd Resistance:--- 798.45
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,170 and then more and heavier stops just below support at last week’s low of 12,130. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,250 and then at 12,300. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,249
1st Support:------ 12,110
2nd Support:------ 12,031
1st Resistance:--- 12,328
2nd Resistance:--- 12,467
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today, as the bulls have regained good upside technical momentum amid the stock market’s strong losses.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More and heavier buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this month’s high of 114 2/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 5/32
1st Support:----- 112 28/32
2nd Support:----- 112 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 30/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this month’s high of 109.11.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 109.03.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.30.0
1st Support:------ 108.24.0
2nd Support:------ 108.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.17.0
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