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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
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| June 2007 »
May 2007 Archives
Thursday, May 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Attention commodities traders: Arguably the three most volatile trading months in the grain futures lie just ahead (June, July and August). Already, there are some weather forecasters calling for hotter and drier weather patterns in the U.S. Midwest this summer. Grain futures markets rallied strongly Wednesday on bullish weather forecasts. There is really nothing more exciting in the trading world than a "weather market" in the grain futures. Look for a volatile and exciting summer in the grain markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on follow-through strength from solid gains Wednesday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, amid no early warning signals of market tops being close at hand. However, the stock index bulls need to be cautious about a looming downside correction that is not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when."
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,530.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,525.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,535.70 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,526.90
1st Support:------ 1,519.60
2nd Support:------ 1,505.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,541.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,548.50
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 840.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 835.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 847.75 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 840.20
1st Support:------ 835.40
2nd Support:------ 826.20
1st Resistance:--- 849.40
2nd Resistance:--- 854.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,600 and then more stops just below support at 13,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,700 and then at 13,750. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,595
1st Support:------ 13,531
2nd Support:------ 13,405
1st Resistance:--- 13,721
2nd Resistance:--- 13,785
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher early today, on a short-covering bounce. Trading may be quieter today ahead of the key U.S. jobs report Friday morning.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 109 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 109 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at last week's low of 108 25/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 109 8/32
1st Support:----- 109 even
2nd Support:----- 108 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 109 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 109 23/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 106.24.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 106.13.0, and then more sell stops just below support at the January low of 106.06.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.19.0
1st Support:------ 106.13.0
2nd Support:------ 106.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 106.23.0
2nd Resistance:--- 106.29.0
Wednesday, May 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that the U.S. Treasuries are due for a solid short-covering bounce very soon, and that major market lows are close at hand in T-Bonds and T-Notes.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading, on a profit-taking pullback. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, amid no early warning signals of market tops being close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at last week's low of 1,507.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,524.20 and then at 1,530.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,520.35
1st Support:------ 1,516.50
2nd Support:------ 1,510.45
1st Resistance:--- 1,526.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,530.25
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 832.95. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 827.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 840.00 and then at the contract high of 847.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 837.45
1st Support:------ 834.90
2nd Support:------ 830.40
1st Resistance:--- 841.95
2nd Resistance:--- 844.50
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,488 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 13,590 and then at the contract high of 13,653. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,545
1st Support:------ 13,501
2nd Support:------ 13,443
1st Resistance:--- 13,603
2nd Resistance:--- 13,647
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce. Key for the market today will be this afternoon's FOMC minutes.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday's high of 109 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 19/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday's low of 109 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at last week's low of 108 25/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 109 4/32
1st Support:----- 108 29/32
2nd Support:----- 108 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 109 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 109 16/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 106.22.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.27.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 106.13.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.18.0
1st Support:------ 106.12.0
2nd Support:------ 106.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 106.21.0
2nd Resistance:--- 106.27.0
Tuesday, May 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It's a short trading week this week, but a very big week of key U.S. economic data. Most important for traders will be Wednesday's FOMC minutes report and Friday's jobs report. Look for an extra active trading week to kick off the unofficial beginning of summer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, amid no early warning signals of market tops being close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 1,516.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,507.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,525.00 and then at 1,530.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,516.00
1st Support:------ 1,511.75
2nd Support:------ 1,506.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,521.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,525.80
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 827.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at last week's low of 822.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 835.00 and then at 840.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 830.60
1st Support:------ 828.20
2nd Support:------ 824.60
1st Resistance:--- 834.20
2nd Resistance:--- 836.60
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,475 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,540 and then at 13,600. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,514
1st Support:------ 13,488
2nd Support:------ 13,449
1st Resistance:--- 13,553
2nd Resistance:--- 13,579
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. However, the bears to appear to have become exhausted last week, as selling interest dried up at the fresh for-the-move lows and prices did drift back higher. Last week's lows are now key near-term technical support, and closes below those lows would be very near-term bearish.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 109 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's high of 109 19/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 109 10/32
1st Support:----- 109 even
2nd Support:----- 108 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 109 17/32
2nd Resistance:-- 109 27/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 106.27.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.17.0, and then more sell stops just below support at last week's low of 106.13.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.22.0
1st Support:------ 106.17.0
2nd Support:------ 106.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 106.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.00.0
Friday, May 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
If the market or markets you have been following this week have been trending this week, then today (Friday) could see those markets post a corrective pullback. Reason: Heading into the long holiday weekend, many traders want to even positions or pull profits off the table. Fridays tend to see more of that type of price action than other days, due to traders being uneasy holding positions over the weekend. A three-day holiday weekend only makes that tendency stronger.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading, following losses on Thursday. Same story: Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,507.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,520.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,517.30
1st Support:------ 1,502.10
2nd Support:------ 1,492.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,526.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,542.00
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 817.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 830.00 and then at 835.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 830.05
1st Support:------ 818.15
2nd Support:------ 810.05
1st Resistance:--- 838.15
2nd Resistance:--- 850.05
June Dow: For today, a solidly lower close would confirm a bearish key reversal, which would be one early clue that a near-term top is in place. Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,450 and then more stops just below support at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,500 and then at 13,550. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,528
1st Support:------ 13,402
2nd Support:------ 13,325
1st Resistance:--- 13,605
2nd Resistance:--- 13,731
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to firmer early today, on short-covering. However, the bears to appear to have become exhausted on Thursday, as selling interest dried up at the fresh for-the-move lows and prices did drift back higher. Solidly higher closes today would be extra bullish for bonds and notes.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 109 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Thursday's low of 109 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 109 6/32
1st Support:----- 108 28/32
2nd Support:----- 108 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 109 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 109 30/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.27.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.21.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Thursday's low of 106.13.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.21.0
1st Support:------ 106.14.0
2nd Support:------ 106.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 106.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.04.0
Thursday, May 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures and firmer U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Stock index and precious metals traders: Keep a closer eye on the copper futures market in the near term. Copper can be a leading indicator of market price moves in gold, silver and the U.S. stock indexes. Any serious weakness in copper could be an indication of a significant impending correction in the stock indexes.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning electronic trading, amid recent fresh contract highs. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early technical warning flags of market tops being close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,520.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,515.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,530.00 and then at the contract high of 1,535.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,528.50
1st Support:------ 1,521.30
2nd Support:------ 1,517.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,532.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,539.90
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 834.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 843.50 and then at the contract high of 847.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 840.90
1st Support:------ 834.05
2nd Support:------ 830.15
1st Resistance:--- 844.75
2nd Resistance:--- 851.65
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,533 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's contract high of 13,635 and then at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,575
1st Support:------ 13,516
2nd Support:------ 13,473
1st Resistance:--- 13,618
2nd Resistance:--- 13,677
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, on short-covering bounces in bear markets. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 109 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at 109 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Wednesday's low of 109 2/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 109 12/32
1st Support:----- 109 even
2nd Support:----- 108 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 109 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 110 1/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 106.30.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 106.18.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.24.0
1st Support:------ 106.19.0
2nd Support:------ 106.13.0
1st Resistance:--- 106.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.03.0
Wednesday, May 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher U.S. stock index futures prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
While I do look for a sizeable corrective pullback in the U.S. stock indexes soon, following the biggest winning streak by some calculations since 1927, I would not try to be a top picker. Better is to make the stock indexes (or any market for that matter) show some significant technical clue to suggest a market top is in place. Using technical "filters" to affirm your notions makes for a better trader.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning electronic trading, amid recent fresh contract highs. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early technical warning flags of market tops being close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,525.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's contract high of 1,533.80 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,527.85
1st Support:------ 1,522.50
2nd Support:------ 1,519.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,530.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,536.05
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 840.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 833.90. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 843.50 and then at 845.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 839.25
1st Support:------ 835.05
2nd Support:------ 829.65
1st Resistance:--- 844.65
2nd Resistance:--- 848.85
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,550 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's contract high of 13,620 and then at 13,650. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,578
1st Support:------ 13,536
2nd Support:------ 13,514
1st Resistance:--- 13,600
2nd Resistance:--- 13,642
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today, and hit fresh multi-month lows overnight. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. But the markets are short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 109 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the January low of 109 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 2.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 109 25/32
1st Support:----- 109 12/32
2nd Support:----- 109 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 109 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 110 12/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.28.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.22.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 106.31.0
1st Support:------ 106.24.0
2nd Support:------ 106.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.03.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.10.0
Tuesday, May 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features again in overnight/early morning trading today are higher stock index futures prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold presently has two strong forces to influence the precious yellow metal. A bullish force is rising crude oil prices. The bearish force is a rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. My bias is that the more powerful force that will have a greater impact on gold is the value of the greenback. If the dollar continues to appreciate then gold bulls will have a tough time making progress.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are again firmer in early morning electronic trading, after setting fresh contract highs Monday for the Dow and for the S&P 500. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand. But bulls should not become too complacent.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,525.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's contract high of 1,533.80 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,529.30
1st Support:------ 1,524.80
2nd Support:------ 1,521.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,532.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,536.90
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 830.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Monday's low of 824.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 840.50 and then at 845.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 832.80
1st Support:------ 826.35
2nd Support:------ 817.55
1st Resistance:--- 841.60
2nd Resistance:--- 848.05
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,550 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's contract high of 13,605 and then at 13,650. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,584
1st Support:------ 13,549
2nd Support:------ 13,526
1st Resistance:--- 13,607
2nd Resistance:--- 13,642
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today, after a tepid short-covering bounce Monday. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 15/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 109 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 even
1st Support:----- 109 28/32
2nd Support:----- 109 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 110 14/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.05.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.15.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 106.30.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.03.0
1st Support:------ 107.00.0
2nd Support:------ 106.27.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.08.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.11.0
Monday, May 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher stock index futures prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar continues to make upward progress versus the other major currencies. Prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. If longer-term chart price history does hold true, the U.S. dollar index has very likely put in a major price bottom.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, after setting fresh contract highs Friday for the Dow and overnight for the S&P 500. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand. However, the indexes, especially the Dow, are due for a significant downside "correction" at some point in the not too distant future.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,525.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,530.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,523.20
1st Support:------ 1,518.40
2nd Support:------ 1,508.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,532.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,537.50
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 820.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 814.05. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 827.50 and then at last week's high of 833.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 822.10
1st Support:------ 816.75
2nd Support:------ 808.70
1st Resistance:--- 830.20
2nd Resistance:--- 835.60
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,540 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,650 and then at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,581
1st Support:------ 13,558
2nd Support:------ 13,517
1st Resistance:--- 13,622
2nd Resistance:--- 13,645
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to weaker early today, after solid losses Friday. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 10/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 4/32
1st Support:----- 109 19/32
2nd Support:----- 109 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 even
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.03.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.30.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.06.0
1st Support:------ 106.27.0
2nd Support:------ 106.21.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.12.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.23.0
Friday, May 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher stock index futures prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity traders: Keep an extra close eye on crude oil futures prices in the near term. Crude oil rallied sharply on Thursday, and more gains in the near term are likely to prompt spillover support (including fund buying) in many commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand. However, the indexes, especially the Dow, are due for a significant downside "correction" at some point in the not too distant future.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,513.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,510.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's contract high of 1,521.50 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,516.65
1st Support:------ 1,511.80
2nd Support:------ 1,508.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,520.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,524.95
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 812.30. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 810.30. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 821.50 and then at 825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 817.10
1st Support:------ 812.70
2nd Support:------ 810.50
1st Resistance:--- 819.30
2nd Resistance:--- 823.70
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,485 and then more stops just below support at 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's contract high of 13,555 and then at 13,600. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,515
1st Support:------ 13,476
2nd Support:------ 13,445
1st Resistance:--- 13,545
2nd Resistance:--- 13,585
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent losses. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 110 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 20/32
1st Support:----- 110 7/32
2nd Support:----- 109 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 9/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 107.18.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Thursday's high of 107.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday's low of 107.11.0, and then more sell stops just below support at the April low of 107.05.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.16.0
1st Support:------ 107.07.0
2nd Support:------ 107.03.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.29.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning trading. Slow stochastics are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.15 and then at last week's high of 82.29. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.00 and then at 81.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The June Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3519 and then more stops just below support at the May low of 1.3482. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3560 and then at 1.3600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly higher in early trading today. Bears have gained near-term technical momentum this week. For June gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $661.50 and then at this week's low of $660.60. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $665.30 and then at $667.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly higher in early electronic dealings. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week's high of $63.30 and then just above resistance at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.50, and then more sell stops just below support at $62.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Corn and soybean bulls still have some technical momentum on their side, as traders have seen dips in these markets as buying opportunities. Wheat will be a follower of corn and soybeans for the near term, but the wheat bulls don't have the momentum that corn and bean bulls have.
Thursday, May 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
FOREX and currency futures traders: The U.S. dollar index is near some major longer-term technical support levels that have reversed major price downtrends the past 20 years. That's a strong signal that there is not much downside left in the greenback, and that a major low is close at hand or already in place in the U.S. dollar index.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to weaker in early morning electronic trading. But bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand. However, the indexes, especially the Dow, are due for a significant downside "correction" at some point in the not too distant future.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,510.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,502.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's contract high of 1,519.50 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,514.20
1st Support:------ 1,510.05
2nd Support:------ 1,502.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,522.15
2nd Resistance:--- 1,526.25
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 810.30. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 825.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 830.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 818.80
1st Support:------ 815.05
2nd Support:------ 808.60
1st Resistance:--- 825.25
2nd Resistance:--- 829.00
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,500 and then more stops just below support at 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's contract high of 13,532 and then at 13,600. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,488
1st Support:------ 13,444
2nd Support:------ 13,358
1st Resistance:--- 13,574
2nd Resistance:--- 13,618
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower early today. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 111 6/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday's low of 110 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 111 21/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 31/32
1st Support:----- 110 24/32
2nd Support:----- 110 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 12/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.24.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 107.28.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the May low of 107.18.0, and then more sell stops just below support at the April low of 107.05.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.23.0
1st Support:------ 107.19.0
2nd Support:------ 107.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 107.31.0
Wednesday, May 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
If the U.S. stock indexes do see a significant downside "correction" in the near future, which is my bias, then the T-Bond and T-Note bulls will likely benefit, possibly in a big way. Tuesday was a good example of assets being pulled away from the U.S. Treasuries and put into the U.S. stock market. Bonds and notes could not even post a rally Tuesday, in the wake a bullish CPI report.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, and there are still no early warning flags of market tops being close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,502.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,496.10. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's contract high of 1,519.50 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,510.25
1st Support:------ 1,501.00
2nd Support:------ 1,493.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,517.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,526.95
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 810.30. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 820.00 and then at 825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 820.75
1st Support:------ 811.50
2nd Support:------ 805.75
1st Resistance:--- 826.50
2nd Resistance:--- 835.75
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,357 and then more stops just below support at 13,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's contract high of 13,518 and then at 13,550. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,438
1st Support:------ 13,357
2nd Support:------ 13,277
1st Resistance:--- 13,518
2nd Resistance:--- 13,599
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent losses. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 111 12/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 31/32
1st Support:----- 110 19/32
2nd Support:----- 110 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 21/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.28.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.22.5, and then more sell stops just below support at the May low of 107.18.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.24.0
1st Support:------ 107.18.0
2nd Support:------ 107.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.04.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning trading. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 82.01 and then at last week's high of 82.29. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.82 and then at 81.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Monday's low of 1.3543 and then more stops just below support at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3580 and then at 1.3600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early trading today. Bulls are fading and need to show power today. In June gold, strong shorter-term technical support is seen at last week's low of $665.90 and then at $660.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $670.00 and then at the overnight high of $672.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly lower in early electronic dealings. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $62.69 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of $63.07. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $61.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading, following Monday afternoon's USDA crop progress reports that showed corn and soybean planting in the Corn Belt progressing rapidly. Bears appear ready to rule today, but I don't look for strong trends to develop in the near term--just more choppy trading.
Tuesday, May 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock indexes and lower commodities prices almost across the board.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today's Consumer Price Index report is one of the most important of the week. Expectations are for a rise of 0.5% in the CPI for April. U.S. Treasuries traders will focus keenly on today's CPI report. A bullish CPI number for Treasuries (smaller increase than expected) should pop the market solidly higher. As for the U.S. stock indexes, it would not surprise me to see a bigger profit-taking pullback at some point soon. There is the old market adage in stocks: "Sell in May and go away."--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, but are losing upside technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,496.10. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,508.20 and then at Monday's high of 1,515.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,509.10
1st Support:------ 1,502.45
2nd Support:------ 1,496.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,515.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,522.00
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 820.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 815.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 825.00 and then at 830.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 826.85
1st Support:------ 820.20
2nd Support:------ 815.85
1st Resistance:--- 831.20
2nd Resistance:--- 837.85
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,333 and then more stops just below support at 13,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's contract high of 13,420 and then at 13,450. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,380
1st Support:------ 13,341
2nd Support:------ 13,293
1st Resistance:--- 13,428
2nd Resistance:--- 13,467
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Look for a bigger price move today, following this morning's CPI report.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's high of 111 12/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 5/32
1st Support:----- 110 31/32
2nd Support:----- 110 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 15/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.29.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at the May low of 107.18.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 107.28.0
1st Support:------ 107.23.0
2nd Support:------ 107.21.0
1st Resistance:--- 107.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.03.0
Monday, May 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is modest gains in gold.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
For you "position traders," meaning those whose trading positions extend beyond one day, examining the weekly charts is an excellent method of gauging the dominant overall price trend in a market. The weekly charts also eliminate the market "noise" that can be seen on daily charts. Legendary trader W.D. Gann said his favorite chart for trading and market analysis was the weekly chart.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes, amid still no early clues that market tops are close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,505.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,518.80 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,507.00
1st Support:------ 1,501.30
2nd Support:------ 1,490.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,517.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,523.60
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 824.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at last week's low of 820.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 832.00 and then at the contract high of 840.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 829.40
1st Support:------ 826.80
2nd Support:------ 821.90
1st Resistance:--- 834.30
2nd Resistance:--- 836.90
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,285 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 13,245. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's contract high of 13,408 and then at 13,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,349
1st Support:------ 13,315
2nd Support:------ 13,251
1st Resistance:--- 13,413
2nd Resistance:--- 13,447
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today. Bears had a good day on Friday as the struggle for near-term technical control continues.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 16/32 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 16/32
1st Support:----- 111 even
2nd Support:----- 110 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 27/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 11/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 107.28.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.04.0
1st Support:------ 107.25.0
2nd Support:------ 107.18.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.22.0
Friday, May 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a modest rebound in the gold market following strong losses Thursday.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar could be turning the corner and ending its longer-term downtrend against several of the major currencies. The U.S. dollar index futures has dropped down to price levels which in past years reversed major declines. Price action the next few days in the currencies will be extra important for the greenback.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, following profit-taking losses on Wednesday. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes, amid still no early clues that market tops are close at hand.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today, but just barely. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but has turned down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,496.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,490.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,505.00 and then at 1,510.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,503.70
1st Support:------ 1,491.75
2nd Support:------ 1,484.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,511.15
2nd Resistance:--- 1,523.10
June Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 820.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 815.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 832.20 and then at the contract high of 840.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 825.50
1st Support:------ 818.85
2nd Support:------ 813.60
1st Resistance:--- 830.80
2nd Resistance:--- 837.50
June Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,245 and then more stops just below support at 13,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,300 and then at Thursday's high of 13,365. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,293
1st Support:------ 13,221
2nd Support:------ 13,173
1st Resistance:--- 13,341
2nd Resistance:--- 13,413
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today. Bulls had a good day on Thursday and a weekly high close today would put them in the near-term technical driver's seat.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 31/32 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 112 10/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 111 6/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 16/32
1st Support:----- 111 9/32
2nd Support:----- 111 even
1st Resistance:-- 111 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 even
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.12.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this month's high of 108.15.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.05.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.03.0
1st Support:------ 107.31.0
2nd Support:------ 107.25.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.09.0
2nd Resistance:--- 108.13.0
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