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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
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June 2007 Archives
Friday, June 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
**NOTE: I will be out of the office next Monday and Tuesday. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my morning reports. They may be out a little later than normal.--Jim
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures prices and firmer U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
This week's price action makes me more strongly suspect the stock indexes have gone into the summertime doldrums, where volume shrinks, trading ranges narrow and the trends turn more sideways.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Look for more choppy trading conditions in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,510.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,505.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,520.70 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,518.00
1st Support:------ 1,508.20
2nd Support:------ 1,502.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,524.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,533.80
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 840.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 835.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 850.00 and then at Thursday's high of 853.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 847.60
1st Support:------ 842.20
2nd Support:------ 839.10
1st Resistance:--- 850.70
2nd Resistance:--- 856.10
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,400 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,350. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,550 and then at Thursday's high of 13,590. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,534
1st Support:------ 13,478
2nd Support:------ 13,439
1st Resistance:--- 13,573
2nd Resistance:--- 13,629
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today. Bulls and bears are struggling for near-term technical control. Today's price action will be extra important, on a near-term technical basis.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 7/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 107 18/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 31/32
1st Support:----- 106 23/32
2nd Support:----- 106 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 15/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week's high of 105.25.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.05.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.09.0
1st Support:------ 105.04.0
2nd Support:------ 105.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.13.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.18.0
Thursday, June 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading today, as markets are quieter and awaiting this afternoon's FOMC announcement on U.S. interest rate policy.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
One of my favorite technical indicators is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. It's easy to understand and does provide good buy and sell signals in many situations. I wrote a feature on the MACD a while back and I'd be happy to email it to you, if you are interested in reading it. Just drop me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and send it back.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in quieter early morning electronic trading, after Wednesday's solid rebounds. Look for more choppy trading conditions in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,510.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,505.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,525.00 and then at 1,530.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,510.30
1st Support:------ 1,500.85
2nd Support:------ 1,482.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,528.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,537.80
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 840.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 835.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 850.00 and then at 855.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 838.95
1st Support:------ 831.65
2nd Support:------ 817.70
1st Resistance:--- 852.90
2nd Resistance:--- 860.20
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,500 and then more stops just below support at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,550 and then at 13,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,467
1st Support:------ 13,403
2nd Support:------ 13,285
1st Resistance:--- 13,585
2nd Resistance:--- 13,649
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today, as traders await the FOMC announcement. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls have gained some fresh technical momentum this week.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 107 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 107 18/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 27/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 107 4/32
1st Support:----- 106 22/32
2nd Support:----- 106 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 27/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 105.25.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.07.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.16.0
1st Support:------ 105.06.0
2nd Support:------ 105.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.22.0
2nd Resistance:--- 106.00.0
Wednesday, June 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock and U.S. Treasury index futures prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I had an enjoyable trip to Chicago Tuesday. The trading floors of the futures exchanges have changed a lot since I was a reporter on the trading floors over 20 years ago. For example, the Chicago Board of Trade's Treasury Bond and Note pits are now mostly just big computer screens with a few folks standing around in the pit. "Back in the day," I remember seeing around 500 traders jostling in the T-Bond pit. I knew when something big was hitting the marketplace by the volume of noise coming out of the trading pits. Being big and burly was an asset in the trading pits, because being taller allowed the trader to get better position to make quicker trades in fast markets. Being burly allowed the trader to better jostle for position. I also remember seeing a few traders wearing elevated shoes, to appear taller. And I also remember the distinctive voice of a pit trader: permanently hoarse. And I also remember a few fights breaking out on the trading floor. But they usually always broke up before the guards on the floor could catch the perpetrators. Okay, enough reminiscing and back to work!--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, after suffering sharp losses on Tuesday. Bulls are fading again. Look for more choppy trading conditions in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the June low of 1,494.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,490.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,505.00 and then at 1,510.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,504.85
1st Support:------ 1,490.50
2nd Support:------ 1,483.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,512.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,526.55
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the June low of 825.70. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 820.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 835.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 839.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 832.30
1st Support:------ 825.60
2nd Support:------ 822.05
1st Resistance:--- 835.82
2nd Resistance:--- 842.55
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at the June low of 13,370 and then more stops just below support at 13,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,450 and then at 13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,449
1st Support:------ 13,339
2nd Support:------ 13,281
1st Resistance:--- 13,507
2nd Resistance:--- 13,617
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls have gained some fresh technical momentum recently.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 107 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 107 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 31/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 28/32
1st Support:----- 106 18/32
2nd Support:----- 106 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 3/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 13/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.24.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.12.5, and then more sell stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 105.05.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.11.0
1st Support:------ 105.04.0
2nd Support:------ 105.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.15.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.22.0
Tuesday, June 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock index futures prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I am filing my morning blog report a bit early today. I'm heading out early for Chicago to speak to grain traders at the Chicago Board of Trade. It's a real honor to be asked to speak to grain traders. When I broke into this business nearly 25 years ago, I was a cub reporter working on the trading floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It was me seeking out the grain traders for insight back then. Now, it's nice to try to pay them back by presenting them with some of my observations of market action I've seen over the past nearly quarter-century. If you are interested in the Power Point presentation I'm giving to the grain traders Tuesday afternoon, send me an email and I'll email it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Look for more choppy trading conditions in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 1,505.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,520.00 and then at Monday's high of 1,527.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,516.00
1st Support:------ 1,503.15
2nd Support:------ 1,492.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,526.45
2nd Resistance:--- 1,539.30
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 830.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the June low of 825.70. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 840.00 and then at Monday's high of 845.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 837.00
1st Support:------ 829.00
2nd Support:------ 822.50
1st Resistance:--- 843.50
2nd Resistance:--- 851.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,401 and then more stops just below support at the June low of 13,370. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,500 and then at Monday's high of 13,595. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,492
1st Support:------ 13,388
2nd Support:------ 13,298
1st Resistance:--- 13,582
2nd Resistance:--- 13,686
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher early today, on a short-covering bounce. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls have gained some fresh technical momentum just recently.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 107 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 107 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 106 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 27/32
1st Support:----- 105 18/32
2nd Support:----- 106 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 18/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.24.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.10.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.10.0
1st Support:------ 105.04.0
2nd Support:------ 104.28.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.18.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.24.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early morning trading. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.23 and then at 82.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.00 and then at 81.80. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3475 and then more stops just below support at 1.3450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Friday's high of 1.3509 and then at 1.3550. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $653.20 and then at $650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $657.70 and then at $660.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings, on weekend news that striking Nigerian oil workers will come back to work. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $68.50 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week's low of $67.65, and then more sell stops just below support $67.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Beneficial rains have fallen over the previously dry eastern Corn Belt the past few days. That has pressured the markets lower and done some chart damage. Bulls this week need to step up. Another down week this week would produce serious chart damage to begin to suggest major market tops are in place. All eyes will be on updated weather forecasts at midday. Remember that weather markets in the grains can repair chart damage in a hurry.
Monday, June 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly lower crude oil and many other raw commodity prices, including the metals.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Friday's sell off in the U.S. stock indexes is a very early clue that price action in the indexes this summer could be more choppy and less trending. Now, the indexes have to push to new highs for the bulls to regain solid fresh upside technical momentum. Right now, the path of least resistance in the stock indexes appears to be sideways.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 1,513.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,510.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,524.20 and then at 1,530.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,523.35
1st Support:------ 1,510.70
2nd Support:------ 1,500.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,533.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,545.85
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 834.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 846.25 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 840.55
1st Support:------ 834.85
2nd Support:------ 829.00
1st Resistance:--- 846.30
2nd Resistance:--- 852.05
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,471 and then more stops just below support at 13,425. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,575 and then at Friday's high of 13,635. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,504
1st Support:------ 13,473
2nd Support:------ 13,440
1st Resistance:--- 13,537
2nd Resistance:--- 13,568
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 106 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 107 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 6/32
1st Support:----- 105 27/32
2nd Support:----- 105 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 1/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.08.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week's high of 105.13.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.27.0
1st Support:------ 104.20.0
2nd Support:------ 104.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.13.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early morning trading. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.53 and then at 82.75. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.00 and then at 81.80. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The September Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3450 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.3418. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3500 and then at 1.3550. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $655.00 and then at the overnight low of $653.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $660.00 and then at $662.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker in early electronic dealings. There is strong overhead resistance around the $70.00 level. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.72 and then just above resistance at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of $67.65. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower overnight trading. Beneficial rains have fallen over the dry eastern Corn Belt the past 48 hours. That has pressured the markets lower, as profit-taking from recent strong gains has been featured. Trading today in the grains will be extra important. All eyes will be on updated weather forecasts this morning and at midday. Here's the key for traders: Weather forecasts can and will flip-flop on near-term expectations for the Corn Belt. But key is to watch for a trend change in the weather patterns.
Friday, June 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index and Treasury futures prices.
***NOTE: I'm considering adding key short-term Fibonacci support and resistance levels to U.S. stock index and Treasury analysis in this morning blog, and eliminating the pivot point analyses. I need you to weigh in. I'm too busy to figure both. So what should I do, keep the pivot points or eliminate them and add Fibonacci levels? Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com to cast your vote. Also, if you have any other suggestions for this report, please email me.--Jim
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading has turned choppier at higher levels in the U.S. stock indexes. For the bulls to gain fresh technical power, they will have to produce solid upside breakouts from the recent trading ranges at higher price levels. It would not surprise me to see the stock indexes now enter the "summer doldrums" period, when volume wanes and trading ranges narrow.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have faded.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,527.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,518.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,536.80 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,530.20
1st Support:------ 1,523.60
2nd Support:------ 1,511.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,542.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,549.00
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are turning bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 835.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 847.50 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 843.25
1st Support:------ 839.00
2nd Support:------ 830.75
1st Resistance:--- 851.50
2nd Resistance:--- 855.75
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,510 and then more stops just below support at 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 13,675 and then at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,615
1st Support:------ 13,555
2nd Support:------ 13,450
1st Resistance:--- 13,720
2nd Resistance:--- 13,780
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker again early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, and gained more power Thursday. Would-be bottom pickers need to beware.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 106 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 106 20/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 105 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 105 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 6/32
1st Support:----- 105 23/32
2nd Support:----- 105 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 1/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 104.27.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.18.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.25.0
1st Support:------ 104.17.0
2nd Support:------ 104.09.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.01.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.09.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early morning trading. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.50 and then at 82.75. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday's low of 82.21 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3410 and then more stops just below support at 1.3400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3450 and then at this week's high of 1.3478. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading weaker in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $654.10 and then at $650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $659.30 and then at $662.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings. Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum on their side, but there is strong overhead resistance around the $70.00 level. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $68.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. All eyes will be on updated weather forecasts this morning and at midday. Here's the key for traders: Weather forecasts can and will flip-flop on near-term expectations for the Corn Belt. But key is to watch for a trend change in the weather patterns. Right now the overall weather trend in the Corn Belt remains in favor of the bulls. The fireworks this summer are not finished. Dips are still seen as buying opportunities in grains.
Thursday, June 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. Treasury futures prices and a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. Treasuries bulls have again faded. Weaker prices Wednesday, in the face of a couple of sub-prime hedge funds melting down, underscores how weak is the posture of the U.S. Treasury market at present. Many traders were scratching their heads Wednesday when U.S. Treasuries did not see a flight-to-quality bid when the hedge fund news surfaced and amid the steep stock market sell off Wednesday afternoon.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in early morning electronic trading, following steep losses Wednesday. Bulls are fading. For the bulls to gain additional technical power, they will have to produce solid upside breakouts from the recent trading range at higher price levels.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,525.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,532.40 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,535.60
1st Support:------ 1,516.95
2nd Support:------ 1,506.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,545.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,564.30
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 835.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 850.00 and then at 859.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 847.40
1st Support:------ 836.05
2nd Support:------ 830.40
1st Resistance:--- 853.05
2nd Resistance:--- 864.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,595 and then more stops just below support at 13,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,650 and then at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,673
1st Support:------ 13,530
2nd Support:------ 13,452
1st Resistance:--- 13,750
2nd Resistance:--- 13,893
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, and gained more power Wednesday.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 106 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 106 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 23/32
1st Support:----- 106 3/32
2nd Support:----- 105 22/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 24/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 105.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.23.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.02.0
1st Support:------ 104.23.0
2nd Support:------ 104.14.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.22.0
Wednesday, June 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock index futures. Trading has turned choppier and quieter, which is not a big surprise heading into what typically is called the summer doldrums in the stock market.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. Treasuries are showing signs of having put in market bottoms recently. Firmer closes today would bolster that notion.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. For the bulls to gain additional technical power, they will have to produce solid upside breakouts from the recent trading range at higher price levels.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,546.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,540.70. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,553.90 and then at the contract high of 1,557.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,546.70
1st Support:------ 1,542.90
2nd Support:------ 1,536.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,552.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,556.50
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 847.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 859.25 and then at the contract high of 864.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 853.50
1st Support:------ 849.80
2nd Support:------ 843.30
1st Resistance:--- 860.05
2nd Resistance:--- 863.80
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,693 and then more stops just below support at 13,650. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,800 and then at the contract high of 13,825. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,739
1st Support:------ 13,709
2nd Support:------ 13,662
1st Resistance:--- 13,786
2nd Resistance:--- 13,816
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are working prices up from last week's contract lows. Bulls still have work to do, but there are some early encouraging signs for them.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 107 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 106 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 27/32
1st Support:----- 106 15/32
2nd Support:----- 105 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 25/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 105.13.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.03.0
1st Support:------ 104.27.0
2nd Support:------ 104.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.14.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.22.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early morning trading. Bulls are fading just a bit after recent good gains. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.58 and then at 82.75. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.30 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3424 and then more stops just below support at 1.3400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3478 and then at 1.3500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $665.00 and then at $663.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $660.00 and then at the overnight high of $661.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower in early electronic dealings. Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum on their side, but there is strong overhead resistance around the $70.00 level. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday's high of $69.66 and then just above resistance at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.15, and then more sell stops just below support at $69.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading, on some profit-taking pressure from recent gains. This is not surprising. Dips are still seen as buying opportunities in grains. Overall weather patterns in the Corn Belt remain in the bulls' favor.
Tuesday, June 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock index futures. Traders are awaiting this morning's U.S. housing starts report for May, which is expected to show a drop. Any significantly bigger drop than the expected 3.5% decline in May starts would likely spook the stock market.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With crude oil prices knocking on the door of the $70-a-barrel level, grain futures at or near multi-year highs, and with the Continuous Commodity Index near a 30-plus year high, my bias is that the downside is limited in gold and silver. In fact, I would not be surprised if gold and silver saw sharp moves higher in the near term, if crude oil continues to hover near $70.00 a barrel, or above.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some near-term upside technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,540.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,535.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,550.00 and then at last week's high of 1,553.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,547.55
1st Support:------ 1,542.20
2nd Support:------ 1,538.45
1st Resistance:--- 1,551.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,556.65
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 846.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 859.00 and then at the contract high of 864.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 854.40
1st Support:------ 849.75
2nd Support:------ 845.40
1st Resistance:--- 858.75
2nd Resistance:--- 863.40
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,700 and then more stops just below support at 13,650. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,800 and then at the contract high of 13,825. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,750
1st Support:------ 13,706
2nd Support:------ 13,683
1st Resistance:--- 13,773
2nd Resistance:--- 13,817
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are near steady early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are working prices up from last week's contract lows, as short covering has been seen. Bulls still have heavy lifting to do, but there will be some early encouraging signs if the markets can produce higher closes today.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday's high of 106 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 106 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 105 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 105 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 10/32
1st Support:----- 106 2/32
2nd Support:----- 105 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 106 31/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 104.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.23.0
1st Support:------ 104.18.0
2nd Support:------ 104.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.31.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.04.0
Monday, June 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures and U.S. Treasuries, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock index bulls have regained upside technical momentum with last week's positive weekly high closes in the indexes. Now, prices are challenging contract highs scored just a while back. A push to new contract highs would be significantly bullish to suggest another leg up in prices in the near term. However, a pullback from present highs, or from highs just a bit higher, would raise the specter of bearish double-top reversal patterns forming on the daily bar charts.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have regained near-term upside technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,546.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's low of 1,538.30. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,553.90 and then at the contract high of 1,557.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,546.65
1st Support:------ 1,539.40
2nd Support:------ 1,531.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,555.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,562.25
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 846.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 859.25 and then at the contract high of 864.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 854.00
1st Support:------ 848.70
2nd Support:------ 841.25
1st Resistance:--- 861.50
2nd Resistance:--- 866.75
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,695 and then more stops just below support at 13,650. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 13,825 and then at 13,900. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,754
1st Support:------ 13,694
2nd Support:------ 13,634
1st Resistance:--- 13,814
2nd Resistance:--- 13,874
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are working prices up from last week's contract lows, as short covering has been seen. Bulls still have heavy lifting to do, but there will be some early encouraging signs if the markets can close higher the first couple days of the week.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 106 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 106 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 3/32
1st Support:----- 105 22/32
2nd Support:----- 105 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 105.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.17.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.16.0
1st Support:------ 104.07.0
2nd Support:------ 103.27.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.28.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.05.0
Thursday, June 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
***NOTE: I will be out of the office Friday and there will be no Morning Blog report.--Jim
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharp overnight gains in the grain futures. Corn, wheat and soybean futures are in major bull market runs that have produced multi-year highs, as a "weather market" is developing this summer. For those of you who have not read my feature story called "Fear and Greed in a Weather Market in the Grains," just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll email it back to you.--Jim
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading in the U.S. stock indexes has turned choppy recently. If market action today and Friday sees steady to lower prices, then look for more choppy trading in the near term, or longer. If the stock indexes show strong follow-through buying today, then it's likely that new highs will be notched, and higher, in the coming days, or longer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls and bears are struggling for near-term control of the indexes. Stronger closes today will provide the bulls with solid upside near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,525.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,535.00 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,521.90
1st Support:------ 1,512.05
2nd Support:------ 1,493.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,540.05
2nd Resistance:--- 1,549.90
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 835.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 842.00 and then at this week's high of 845.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 835.50
1st Support:------ 828.95
2nd Support:------ 819.20
1st Resistance:--- 845.25
2nd Resistance:--- 851.80
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,550 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,650 and then at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,545
1st Support:------ 13,476
2nd Support:------ 13,346
1st Resistance:--- 13,675
2nd Resistance:--- 13,744
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker again early today. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage, but the markets are still a bit short-term oversold, technically.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 106 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 106 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 105 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 105 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 105 17/32
1st Support:----- 104 30/32
2nd Support:----- 103 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 5/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 104.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 104.25.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.06.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.05.0
1st Support:------ 103.27.0
2nd Support:------ 103.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 104.30.0
Wednesday, June 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is more steep losses in U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The steep declines in U.S. Treasuries prices the past week or so have been surprising to most. Prices are now well oversold on a short-term technical basis, but would-be bottom-pickers in the Treasuries markets should exercise extreme caution. Better for the bulls is to make bonds and notes first show some solid technical clues of bottoming and even clues that a fledgling uptrend is under way.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls and bears are struggling for near-term control of the indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,503.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,515.00 and then at 1,520.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,513.60
1st Support:------ 1,500.50
2nd Support:------ 1,493.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,520.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,533.70
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are turning bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the May low of 822.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 815.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 830.00 and then the 835.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 831.90
1st Support:------ 823.05
2nd Support:------ 818.60
1st Resistance:--- 836.35
2nd Resistance:--- 845.20
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at last week's low of 13,370 and then more stops just below support at 13,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,500 and then at Tuesday's high of 13,570. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,467
1st Support:------ 13,364
2nd Support:------ 13,307
1st Resistance:--- 13,524
2nd Resistance:--- 13,627
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower again early today, and set fresh contract lows overnight. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage, but the markets are short-term oversold, technically.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 105 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 105 18/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 104 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 104 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 2.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 105 19/32
1st Support:----- 104 25/32
2nd Support:----- 104 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 3/32
2nd Resistance:-- 106 29/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 104.03.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 104.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight contract low of 103.20.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 103.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 104.10.0
1st Support:------ 103.27.0
2nd Support:------ 103.18.0
1st Resistance:--- 104.19.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.02.0
Tuesday, June 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
U.S. stock index bulls and bears are now struggling for the near-term advantage and momentum. Trading action this week will be extra important. Choppy price action the rest of this week would suggest a summer of more of the same for the stock indexes.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly lower in early morning electronic trading. Bulls and bears are struggling for near-term control of the indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,515.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,510.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,531.50 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,525.10
1st Support:------ 1,518.70
2nd Support:------ 1,512.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,531.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,538.00
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 836.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 845.75 and then the 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 841.40
1st Support:------ 837.10
2nd Support:------ 832.20
1st Resistance:--- 846.35
2nd Resistance:--- 850.70
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,500 and then more stops just below support at 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,600 and then at 13,650. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is even with the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,554
1st Support:------ 13,507
2nd Support:------ 13,458
1st Resistance:--- 13,603
2nd Resistance:--- 13,650
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage, as bulls have not been able to show any follow-through strength after Friday's recovery from the spike low.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 106 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday's high of 106 25/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 105 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 105 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 15/32
1st Support:----- 106 5/32
2nd Support:----- 105 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 106 24/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 104.25.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Mon |
