Name: Jim Wyckoff 
U.S. Treasuries Under Pressure Early
Thursday, June 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. Treasury futures prices and a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. Treasuries bulls have again faded. Weaker prices Wednesday, in the face of a couple of sub-prime hedge funds melting down, underscores how weak is the posture of the U.S. Treasury market at present. Many traders were scratching their heads Wednesday when U.S. Treasuries did not see a flight-to-quality bid when the hedge fund news surfaced and amid the steep stock market sell off Wednesday afternoon.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in early morning electronic trading, following steep losses Wednesday. Bulls are fading. For the bulls to gain additional technical power, they will have to produce solid upside breakouts from the recent trading range at higher price levels.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,525.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,532.40 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,535.60
1st Support:------ 1,516.95
2nd Support:------ 1,506.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,545.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,564.30
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 835.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 830.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 850.00 and then at 859.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 847.40
1st Support:------ 836.05
2nd Support:------ 830.40
1st Resistance:--- 853.05
2nd Resistance:--- 864.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,595 and then more stops just below support at 13,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,650 and then at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,673
1st Support:------ 13,530
2nd Support:------ 13,452
1st Resistance:--- 13,750
2nd Resistance:--- 13,893
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, and gained more power Wednesday.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 106 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 106 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 106 23/32
1st Support:----- 106 3/32
2nd Support:----- 105 22/32
1st Resistance:-- 107 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 107 24/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 105.00.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 105.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.23.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 105.02.0
1st Support:------ 104.23.0
2nd Support:------ 104.14.0
1st Resistance:--- 105.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 105.22.0
