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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« July 2007 |
Main
| September 2007 »
August 2007 Archives
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.89 and then at this week's high of 80.96. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 80.53 and then at 80.40. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.91. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3639 and then more stops just below support at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3700 and then at 1.3750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3623. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher and hit a fresh two-week high in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $677.50 and then at $675.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $680.30 and then just above resistance at $682.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $684.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then just above resistance at $74.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.40, and then more sell stops just below support at $73.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $74.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, with wheat leading the way with sharp gains. Wheat could be in a "blow off top" phase in which very strong gains do put in a market top. In corn and beans, focus will now turn more to demand instead of supply. Beans bulls are gaining more technical momentum by the day.
Friday, August 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
There are a couple of important speeches today on the U.S. economy. President Bush speaks this morning and that will be followed by a speech my Fed Chairman Bernanke. I look for the financial markets to be calmed, to a degree, by these two speeches. Read that bullish for the stock market.
Still, this week's action in the U.S. stock market could be a precursor of what will play out in the stock indexes in the coming months: choppy and less trending price action, but with bouts of higher volatility.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning electronic trading. Stronger closes today will give the bulls fresh near-term technical momentum heading into the key trading month of September.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,470.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1,461.40. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,483.90 and then at 1,492.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,461.90
1st Support:------ 1,452.25
2nd Support:------ 1,442.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,471.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,480.85
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 790.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 779.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 800.00 and then at the August high of 809.10. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 800.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 785.90
1st Support:------ 778.25
2nd Support:------ 771.90
1st Resistance:--- 792.25
2nd Resistance:--- 800.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,250 and then more stops just below support at Thursday's low of 13,205. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 13,340 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 13,420. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,332
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,275
1st Support:------ 13,209
2nd Support:------ 13,140
1st Resistance:--- 13,344
2nd Resistance:--- 13,410
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today, amid the solid early gains in the stock indexes. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 2/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 112 4/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 11/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 26/32
1st Support:----- 111 16/32
2nd Support:----- 111 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 9/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 19/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 109.16.0 and then just above resistance at Thursday's contract high of 109.27.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 109.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 109.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.20.0
1st Support:------ 109.12.0
2nd Support:------ 109.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.31.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.07.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.00 and then at 81.20. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.89 and then at the overnight low of 80.59. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.16. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3600 and then more stops just below support at 1.3550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3650 and then at 1.3700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3683. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $672.60 and then at this week's low of $670.20. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $676.50 and then at last week's high of $679.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $684.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then just above resistance at $74.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $74.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, with wheat leading the way with sharp gains. In corn and beans, focus will now turn more to demand instead of supply. Corn and bean bulls need some fresh bullish fundamental inputs. Wheat bulls continue strong amid strong worldwide demand and still no solid technical clues that a near-term top is close at hand. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's USDA weekly export sales data, which should favor the bulls.
Thursday, August 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
This week's action in the U.S. stock market could be a precursor of what will play out in the stock indexes in the coming months: choppy and less trending price action, but with bouts of higher volatility. However, the short-term credit and mortgage woes likely not finished. There is now more and more talk of a U.S. recession. Those notions do give the stock market bears confidence.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading, following big gains Wednesday.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,440.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,467.70 and then at 1,470.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,448.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,455.90
1st Support:------ 1,444.55
2nd Support:------ 1,423.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,476.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,488.10
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 768.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 760.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 789.75 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 765.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 782.90
1st Support:------ 776.05
2nd Support:------ 762.65
1st Resistance:--- 796.30
2nd Resistance:--- 803.15
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,250 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,125. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 13,320 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 13,420. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,100
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,252
1st Support:------ 13,184
2nd Support:------ 13,057
1st Resistance:--- 13,379
2nd Resistance:--- 13,447
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. Bulls still have solid near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 112 1/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 19/32
1st Support:----- 111 5/32
2nd Support:----- 110 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 10/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.19.5 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 109.26.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 109.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 109.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.14.0
1st Support:------ 109.02.0
2nd Support:------ 108.26.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.22.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.02.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.95 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.68 and then at this week's low of 80.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.92. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3600 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.3572. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3650 and then at 1.3700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3683. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $670.20 and then at $667.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $675.00 and then at last week's high of $679.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $684.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly higher in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.50 and then just above resistance at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.41, and then more sell stops just below support at $71.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. In corn and beans, focus will now turn more to demand instead of supply. Corn and bean bulls need some fresh bullish fundamental inputs. Wheat bulls continue strong amid strong worldwide demand and still no solid technical clues that a near-term top is close at hand.
Wednesday, August 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a modest rebound in the U.S. stock indexes after Tuesday's shellacking.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Tuesday's action in the U.S. stock market reinforces the notion that investors and traders are still not confident that the short-term credit and mortgage woes are over. There is now more and more talk of a U.S. recession. My bias is that the Federal Reserve will again cut U.S. interest rates in the coming weeks. That would be bullish for U.S. Treasuries, as is also the present stock market turmoil.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, following big losses Tuesday. The bulls faded Tuesday. Bears have regained some fresh near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,435.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,430.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,450.00 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,430.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,447.90
1st Support:------ 1,425.40
2nd Support:------ 1,412.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,460.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,483.30
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 768.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 760.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 780.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 788.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 765.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 775.75
1st Support:------ 762.80
2nd Support:------ 755.55
1st Resistance:--- 783.00
2nd Resistance:--- 795.95
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,070 and then more stops just below support at 13,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,200 and then just above resistance at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,985
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,158
1st Support:------ 13,007
2nd Support:------ 12,920
1st Resistance:--- 13,245
2nd Resistance:--- 13,396
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to firmer early today, and set fresh for-the-move highs overnight. Bulls still have solid near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the May high of 112 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Tuesday's low of 111 9/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 19/32
1st Support:----- 111 12/32
2nd Support:----- 111 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 5/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.26.5 and then just above resistance at 110.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 109.09.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 109.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.11.0
1st Support:------ 109.05.0
2nd Support:------ 108.24.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.30.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. Bears still have near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.82 and then at 80.89. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.53 and then at 80.35. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.92. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bulls have near-term technical momentum. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3650 and then more stops just below support at 1.3631. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3700 and then at 1.3730. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3683. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $674.80 and then at $672.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at last week's high of $679.00 and then at $682.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $684.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.50 and then just above resistance at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.50, and then more sell stops just below support at $71.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, with wheat leading gains. Corn and bean bulls have pretty much played out the bullish impact of flooding in the Corn Belt. Focus will now turn to demand instead of supply. Wheat bulls continue strong amid strong worldwide demand and still no solid technical clues that a near-term top is close at hand.
Tuesday, August 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is stronger U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The last holiday of the summer is coming up this weekend: Labor Day. Like that which occurred Monday, look for quieter, lighter-volume trading in many markets the rest of this week, especially the stock and financial markets, which also means less price volatility.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. The bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,460.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,450.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,470.40 and then at last week's high of 1,483.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,473.75
1st Support:------ 1,464.10
2nd Support:------ 1,458.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,479.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,489.15
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 775.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 790.00 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 774.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 794.10
1st Support:------ 785.70
2nd Support:------ 781.15
1st Resistance:--- 798.70
2nd Resistance:--- 807.05
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,250 and then more stops just below support at 13,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 13,420 and then just above resistance at 13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,328
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,367
1st Support:------ 13,320
2nd Support:------ 13,287
1st Resistance:--- 13,400
2nd Resistance:--- 13,447
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today. Bulls have solid near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 6/32
1st Support:----- 110 29/32
2nd Support:----- 110 10/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 109.09.5 and then just above resistance at 109.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.30.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.27.0
1st Support:------ 108.21.0
2nd Support:------ 108.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.09.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.15.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady after last Friday's strong losses. Bears still have near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.89 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday's low of 80.54 and then at 80.35. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.92. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3650 and then more stops just below support at 1.3631. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3695 and then at 1.3730. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3683. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $675.60 and then at $672.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at Friday's high of $679.00 and then at $682.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $684.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $71.50 and then just above resistance at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.76, and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed and mostly lower in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were solidly lower and wheat was slightly higher. Corn and bean bulls have pretty much played out the bullish impact of flooding in the Corn Belt and there is a lack of fresh fundamental bullish inputs. Wheat bulls continue strong amid no solid technical clues that a near-term top is close at hand.
Monday, August 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The last holiday of the summer is coming up this weekend: Labor Day. Look for quieter, lighter-volume trading in many markets this week, especially the stock and financial markets, which would also mean less price volatility.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading, on mild corrective pullbacks after solid gains on Friday that did produce bullish weekly high closes. The bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,470.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's lowo of 1,460.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,483.90 and then at 1,490.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,475.85
1st Support:------ 1,467.80
2nd Support:------ 1,451.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,491.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,499.75
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 788.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 802.45 and then at last week's high of 809.10. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 785.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 797.30
1st Support:------ 792.90
2nd Support:------ 784.10
1st Resistance:--- 806.10
2nd Resistance:--- 810.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,350 and then more stops just below support at 13,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,420 and then just above resistance at 13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,328
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,357
1st Support:------ 13,295
2nd Support:------ 13,182
1st Resistance:--- 13,470
2nd Resistance:--- 13,532
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to slightly lower early today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Friday's high of 111 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Friday's low of 110 14/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 24/32
1st Support:----- 110 17/32
2nd Support:----- 110 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 3/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 10/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.22.5 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 108.29.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.14.0 and then more sell stops just below support at last week's low of 108.06.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.23.0
1st Support:------ 108.16.0
2nd Support:------ 108.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 108.28.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.03.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $666.70 and then at $664.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $672.50 and then at this week's high of $674.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $676.20. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower again in early morning trading today. Bears have fresh momentum. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.00 and then at the overnight high of 81.11. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.80 and then at 80.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.66. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3600 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.3563. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3639 and then at 1.3650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3683. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.50 and then just above resistance at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.52, and then more sell stops just below support at $69.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $70.07. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed overnight in quieter trading, which suggests a quieter trading day in the grains on Friday. Still more heavy rains and flooding continue in the northern and eastern Corn Belt, which are being deemed bullish for corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls continue to savor strong export demand for U.S. wheat. The corn and bean bulls are also hoping traders start to focus on strong worldwide demand.
Friday, August 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. The dollar bulls are fading this week.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
There's an old market adage that "markets will do anything and everything possible to frustrate the largest number of traders." I've seen this happen often in many markets. In the grain futures, for example, just a week ago the corn and soybean markets were in some technical trouble and poised to likely produce more downside price action heading into harvest. The summertime "weather markets" were supposed to be over with, as by mid-August the corn and soybean crops are virtually made. Then came a deluge of rainfall day after day over the northern and eastern Corn Belt that caused severe flooding and some significant crop damage. I live in the Corn Belt and have never in my life seen such a seeming conveyor belt of storm systems pummel the region during the month of August. Corn and bean bulls now have fresh upside technical momentum. Oh, and by the way for you traders who don't closely follow the grain markets, Chicago wheat futures on Thursday set a fresh all-time record high of $7.54 a bushel.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. The bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,457.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,450.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,470.00 and then at 1,475.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,472.50
1st Support:------ 1,461.15
2nd Support:------ 1,455.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,477.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,489.10
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 788.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 781.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 800.00 and then at Thursday's high of 809.10. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 785.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 796.05
1st Support:------ 783.00
2nd Support:------ 774.95
1st Resistance:--- 804.10
2nd Resistance:--- 801.15
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,205 and then more stops just below support at 13,090. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 13,332 and then just above resistance at 13,400. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,328
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,266
1st Support:------ 13,200
2nd Support:------ 13,139
1st Resistance:--- 13,327
2nd Resistance:--- 13,393
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly lower early today. Look for stocks and Treasuries to continue to trade in a pronounced inverse fashion for the near term. I'm still more bullish the Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this month's high of 110 30/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 11/32
1st Support:----- 109 39/32
2nd Support:----- 109 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 11/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.29.0 and then just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.18.5 and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of 108.06.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.19.0
1st Support:------ 108.10.0
2nd Support:------ 107.28.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.01.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.10.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is again weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.22 and then at this week's high of 81.51. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.00 and then at 80.89. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.92. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3546 and then more stops just below support at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3599 and then at 1.3631. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3623. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today, and is at the weekly high. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $669.40 and then at $667.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $674.30 and then at $677.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $676.20. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings, on a short-covering bounce. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.09, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of $68.63. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $70.07. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher overnight. Still more heavy rains and flooding continue in the northern and eastern Corn Belt, which are being deemed bullish for corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls continue to savor strong export demand for U.S. wheat. The corn and bean bulls are also hoping traders start to focus on strong worldwide demand.
Thursday, August 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading again today is higher U.S. stock index futures prices. The stock index bulls are gaining confidence the worst is behind them, and that August may turn out to be the worst month of the year for the bulls.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I am a conservative trader. Whenever I enter a trade, my thought process is not how much profit can I make on the trade, but is always, "If this trade does not turn out to be a winner, how much can I be burned and how do I get out of the losing trade. Remember that to be successful at trading markets a trader must first survive at trading markets. That said, my market experience and my "gut" tell me that all is not over with, regarding the recent stock market turmoil and the mortgage woes and credit crunch that precipitated the turmoil.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher again in early morning electronic trading. The bulls have fresh near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,467.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,460.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,483.80 and then at 1,492.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,494.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,462.15
1st Support:------ 1,455.30
2nd Support:------ 1,441.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,475.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,482.45
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 794.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 815.00 and then at 825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 816.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 799.00
1st Support:------ 795.95
2nd Support:------ 790.85
1st Resistance:--- 804.20
2nd Resistance:--- 807.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,180 and then more stops just below support at 13,090. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,300 and then just above resistance at 13,350. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,328
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,245
1st Support:------ 13,210
2nd Support:------ 13,145
1st Resistance:--- 13,310
2nd Resistance:--- 13,345
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today, amid higher stock index futures prices. Look for stocks and Treasuries to continue to trade in a pronounced inverse fashion for the near term. I'm still more bullish the Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 10/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 15/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 8/32
1st Support:----- 109 29/32
2nd Support:----- 109 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 110 30/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.18.5 and then just above resistance at 108.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.06.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.24.0
1st Support:------ 108.12.0
2nd Support:------ 108.04.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.00.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.12.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 81.51 and then at 81.78. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 81.22 and then at 81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.17. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3462 and then more stops just below support at 1.3400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3517 and then at this week's high of 1.3533. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading firmer in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $664.20 and then at this week's low of $662.30. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $670.00 and then at $672.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $671.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $70.00 and then just above resistance at $70.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.57, and then more sell stops just below support at $69.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.34. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher overnight. Heavy rains and even flooding continue in the northeastern Corn Belt, which are not being deemed beneficial to finishing the corn and bean crops. Wheat bulls continue to savor strong export demand for U.S. wheat. The corn and bean bulls are also hoping traders start to focus on strong worldwide demand.
Wednesday, August 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures prices. A stronger up day today would give the stock index bulls some more confidence the worst is behind them.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I gave a webinar yesterday on effective stop placement in trading markets. The first step in effective stop placement is knowing well the types of market orders for entry and exit that a trader can employ. I wrote a feature a while back on the different types of market orders. If you'd like to read it, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and send it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. The bulls are regaining some fresh near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,448.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,440.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,465.00 and then at 1,470.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,450.10
1st Support:------ 1,440.20
2nd Support:------ 1,430.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,460.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,470.10
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 790.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 785.20. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the August high of 806.50 and then at 815.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 816.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 791.00
1st Support:------ 786.30
2nd Support:------ 780.50
1st Resistance:--- 796.85
2nd Resistance:--- 801.60
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,090 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,020. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 13,220 and then just above resistance at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,328
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,140
1st Support:------ 13,067
2nd Support:------ 13,016
1st Resistance:--- 13,191
2nd Resistance:--- 13,264
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today, amid higher stock index futures prices. Look for stocks and Treasuries to continue to trade in a pronounced inverse fashion for the near term. I'm still more bullish the Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 110 25/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 17/32
1st Support:----- 110 8/32
2nd Support:----- 109 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.02.5 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.19.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.11.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.01.0
1st Support:------ 108.24.0
2nd Support:------ 108.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.10.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.19.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls are fading a bit. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.51 and then at 81.78. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.22 and then at 81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.17. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3500 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.3469. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3533 and then at 1.3559. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading firmer in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $664.90 and then at Monday's low of $662.30. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $669.80 and then at $672.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $671.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $71.06 and then just above resistance at $71.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.51, and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.08. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to higher overnight. Corn was steady and beans and wheat were modestly higher. Beneficial rains continue in the Corn Belt as traders are now looking ahead to harvest pressure in corn and soybeans. Summertime weather markets are now virtually over in the corn and bean futures. The bulls are hoping traders start to focus on strong worldwide demand for grains. If there is a lack of fresh bullish fundamental inputs for the grains, then prices will likely slip.
Tuesday, August 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock index and Treasury futures prices. A strong up day today would give the stock index bulls some confidence the worst is behind them.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Stock index traders need to remember they are heading into what are historically the worst two trading months of the year for the bulls: September and October. However, it would not surprise me to see August as the worst-performing month of this year for the U.S. stock indexes.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. An up day today would give the bulls some fresh near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,440.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday's low of 1,435.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,454.30 and then at Monday's high of 1,457.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,447.05
1st Support:------ 1,437.10
2nd Support:------ 1,425.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,459.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,469.05
September Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 785.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Monday's low of 781.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 794.50 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 801.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:------------ 788.40
1st Support:------ 782.30
2nd Support:------ 774.90
1st Resistance:--- 795.80
2nd Resistance:--- 801.90
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,100 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 13,020. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 13,220 and then just above resistance at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are turning bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,328
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,130
1st Support:------ 13,039
2nd Support:------ 12,930
1st Resistance:--- 13,239
2nd Resistance:--- 13,330
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today. Look for more “flight to quality” into U.S. Treasuries if the stock market weakens today.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this month's high of 110 30/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 4/32
1st Support:----- 109 22/32
2nd Support:----- 109 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 4/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh nine-month high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.09.5 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 109.18.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.26.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 107.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.23.0
1st Support:------ 108.14.0
2nd Support:------ 108.04.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.01.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.10.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings. Latest tracking shows Hurricane Dean missing the U.S. mainland and striking southern Mexico. The stock market turmoil also has the crude bulls worried about lower demand for crude. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.79, and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.08. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early morning trading today. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.56 and then at 81.78. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.26 and then at 81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.17. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading, on short covering. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3485 and then more stops just below support at 1.3450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3522 and then at Friday's high of 1.3559. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $665.00 and then at the overnight low of $662.30. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $669.10 and then at $672.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $671.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower overnight. There were beneficial rains in the Corn Belt over the weekend as traders are looking ahead to harvest pressure in corn and soybeans. Summertime weather markets are now virtually over in the corn and bean futures. The bulls are hoping traders start to focus on strong worldwide demand for grains. If there is a lack of fresh bullish fundamental inputs for the grains, then prices will likely continue to slip.
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