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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« August 2007 |
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| October 2007 »
September 2007 Archives
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading, and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.21 and then at this week's high of 78.56. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.00 and then at 77.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.65 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 1.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4166 and then more stops just below support at 1.4133. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4218 and then at 1.4250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4078. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $740.00 and then at $737.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at last week's high of $747.10 and then just above resistance at $750.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $733.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady in early electronic dealings. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Thursday's contract high of $83.09 and then just above resistance at $83.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.40, and then more sell stops just below support at $82.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $81.34. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to lower in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting this morning's USDA quarterly grain stocks report, which is expected to be friendly for the markets--showing strong worldwide demand amid tight supplies. Corn, soybeans and wheat remain fully bullish with no early technical clues that market tops are close at hand.
Friday, September 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes and still more weakness in the U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is an extra important trading day. It's the last trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter. Fund managers may be more active today, doing some "window dressing" to their books. Technically, fresh high or low prices scored on the last day of the week, the last day of the month or last day of the quarter are extra important.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,536.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,528.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,544.70 and then at the September high of 1,552.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,525.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,541.80
1st Support:------ 1,538.85
2nd Support:------ 1,533.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,547.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,550.50
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 2,098.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,080.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's contract high of 2,122.50 and then at 2,135.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,095.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,118.35
1st Support:------ 2,114.20
2nd Support:------ 2,106.60
1st Resistance:--- 2,125.95
2nd Resistance:--- 2,130.10
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,951 and then more stops just below support at 13,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 14,010 and then just above resistance at 14,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,900
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,989
1st Support:------ 13,967
2nd Support:------ 13,930
1st Resistance:--- 14,026
2nd Resistance:--- 14,048
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 2/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 2/32
1st Support:----- 110 21/32
2nd Support:----- 110 even
1st Resistance:-- 111 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 4/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 109.24.0 and then just above resistance at 110.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 109.10.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 109.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.21.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.07.0
1st Support:------ 109.00.0
2nd Support:------ 108.19.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.27.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading, and trading near the contract low. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.45 and then at this week's high of 78.56. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 78.10 and then at 78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.71 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 1.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4146 and then more stops just below support at 1.4100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4199 and then at 1.4250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4068. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $737.50 and then at the overnight low of $733.90. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at this week's high of $744.20 and then just above resistance at last week's high of $747.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $733.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher in early electronic dealings, amid another storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $81.36 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $81.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.50, and then more sell stops just below support at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading. Bulls have gained more fresh upside technical momentum this week, led by wheat. The higher "outside markets" today--namely gold and crude oil--appear ready to give the grains an added boost, with increased fund participation on the long side likely. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales data, which has been bullish the past few weeks.
Thursday, September 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher commodity prices virtually across the board, led by crude oil.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity traders should still keep a close eye on the crude oil and gold futures markets. Bigger moves in those markets will provide a spillover impact on other commodity futures markets. The Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is still in a fully near-term bullish technical posture, suggesting the major bull run in commodity markets can continue.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,536.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,528.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,544.40 and then at the September high of 1,552.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,525.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,535.45
1st Support:------ 1,529.30
2nd Support:------ 1,522.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,542.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,548.55
Nasdaq Index: Prices hit another fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 2,098.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,080.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 2,120.75 and then at 2,130.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,076.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,108.50
1st Support:------ 2,099.00
2nd Support:------ 2,088.50
1st Resistance:--- 2,119.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,128.50
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,900 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,785. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 13,999 and then just above resistance at 14,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,672
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,952
1st Support:------ 13,906
2nd Support:------ 13,853
1st Resistance:--- 14,005
2nd Resistance:--- 14,051
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 110 6/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:111 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 18/32
1st Support:----- 110 7/32
2nd Support:----- 109 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 110 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 9/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.04.0 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 109.13.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.25.5 and then more sell stops just below support at the this week's low of 108.19.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.30.0
1st Support:------ 108.24.0
2nd Support:------ 108.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.12.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is modestly higher in early trading. Slow stochastics are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 78.56 and then at 78.73. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 78.10 and then at 78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.71 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading, after hitting a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4133 and then more stops just below support at 1.4100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4183 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4059. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $736.10 and then at $732.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $740.50 and then just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $741.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $733.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are moderately higher in early electronic dealings. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $80.62 and then just above resistance at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.30, and then more sell stops just below support at $79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was weaker, beans firmer and wheat solidly higher. Corn and beans are seeing buying interest limited by good harvest progress in the U.S. Corn Belt. Wheat continues to see end-users worldwide scrambling to secure needs, which could even be termed hoarding, which continues to drive futures prices higher.
Wednesday, September 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are modestly higher U.S. stock indexes and a modest rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I am still intermediate to longer-term bullish on the U.S. Treasuries. However, if T-Bonds and T-Notes drop and close below last week's lows, then that would produce more serious near-term technical damage to suggest more downside price pressure in the near term. Any significant rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar is also likely to support the bond market bulls.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,528.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,519.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the this week's high of 1,542.50 and then at the September high of 1,552.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,525.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,526.50
1st Support:------ 1,521.40
2nd Support:------ 1,513.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,534.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,539.10
Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,098.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,080.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,120.00 and then at 2,130.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,070.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,089.85
1st Support:------ 2,078.70
2nd Support:------ 2,059.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,108.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,119.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,785 and then more stops just below support at 13,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,900 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 13,965. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,704
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,845
1st Support:------ 13,808
2nd Support:------ 13,747
1st Resistance:--- 13,906
2nd Resistance:--- 13,943
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bulls are again fading after failing to hold Tuesday's early gains.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 110 10/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:111 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 28/32
1st Support:----- 110 12/32
2nd Support:----- 110 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 21/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.03.5 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 109.13.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.30.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the this week's low of 108.19.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.02.0
1st Support:------ 108.24.0
2nd Support:------ 108.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.10.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.20.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower in early electronic dealings, on a profit-taking pullback. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $80.62 and then just above resistance at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.50, and then more sell stops just below support at $79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.57 and then at 78.73. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 78.24 and then at 78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.82 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 1.0
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4081 and then more stops just below support at 1.4061. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the contract high of 1.4152 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4079. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $729.20 and then at $725.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $735.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $738.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $725.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. Corn and beans saw selling pressure on reports of good harvest progress in the U.S. Corn Belt. Wheat saw a profit-taking pullback from recent gains. All three markets are technically fully bullish. However, seasonality factors are solidly against the corn and bean bulls, amid harvest pressure. Wheat futures are in a very mature bull market that does appear "toppy."
Tuesday, September 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower stock indexes and lower raw commodity prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Many of the commodity futures markets have seen strong gains recently, and are due for at least a decent corrective pullback. That may be occurring starting today. Gold and crude oil will be leaders on bigger price moves in the raw commodities futures markets. Will the commodity market bulls view any bigger dips as a buying opportunity?--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading. Trading has turned choppier again. Bulls are fading a bit.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,520.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,512.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,531.60 and then at Monday's high of 1,542.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,514.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,534.15
1st Support:------ 1,525.80
2nd Support:------ 1,519.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,540.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,548.45
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 2,066.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,055.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,079.75 and then at 2,090.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,049.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,080.70
1st Support:------ 2,065.35
2nd Support:------ 2,050.90
1st Resistance:--- 2,095.10
2nd Resistance:--- 2,110.40
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,840 and then more stops just below support at 13,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,900 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of 13,965. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,655
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,889
1st Support:------ 13,813
2nd Support:------ 13,764
1st Resistance:--- 13,938
2nd Resistance:--- 14,014
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are higher early today. A good up day today would give the bulls some fresh upside technical momentum and suggest that a near-term market low is in place.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 110 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:111 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 22/32
1st Support:----- 110 14/32
2nd Support:----- 110 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 3/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 11/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 109.17.5 and then just above resistance at 109.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 109.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 108.26.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.21.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.27.0
1st Support:------ 108.23.0
2nd Support:------ 108.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.03.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.07.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $736.50 and then at $734.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $743.90 and then just above resistance at last week's high of $747.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $733.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker in early electronic dealings. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $81.60 and then just above resistance at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.66, and then more sell stops just below support at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.45. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, with wheat leading gains. Estimates of the Australian wheat crop continue to drop, and worldwide demand continues strong as end-users are stockpiling on fears of supply shortages. Corn bulls have solid fresh upside technical momentum, amid a fresh focus by traders on demand prospects going forward. Beans are still fully technically bullish with no clues of a market top being close at hand.
Monday, September 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The December U.S. dollar index futures hit another fresh contract low and 20-year low overnight. Longer-term technical support levels have been violated on the downside, which has produced serious technical damage. The weaker greenback versus the other major currencies is the focus of many traders in many markets. Indeed, the U.S. dollar is a major "outside market" for gold, Treasuries, crude oil, the grains, cotton and the stock market. If the U.S. currency continues to weaken significantly, there will probably be jawboning coming from U.S. government officials, trying to "talk" the dollar up. And if that does not work, then government and central bank intervention will likely follow. At that time the currency speculators would start to circle like sharks--likely betting against what the central banks are trying to accomplish.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,532.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's low of 1,528.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,543.70 and then at last week's high of 1,552.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,514.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,535.60
1st Support:------ 1,527.45
2nd Support:------ 1,520.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,542.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,550.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,066.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 2,055.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 2,081.00 and then at the contract high of 2,090.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,009.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,067.20
1st Support:------ 2,056.35
2nd Support:------ 2,044.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,079.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,090.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,897 and then more stops just below support at 13,835. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,970 and then just above resistance at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,650
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,923
1st Support:------ 13,875
2nd Support:------ 13,850
1st Resistance:--- 13,948
2nd Resistance:--- 13,996
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bears have gained fresh downside technical momentum as serious near-term chart damage has occurred recently.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday's low of 109 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 17/32
1st Support:----- 110 4/32
2nd Support:----- 109 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 17/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.29.5 and then just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 108.12.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 108.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.24.0
1st Support:------ 108.18.0
2nd Support:------ 108.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.04.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.10.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading, after hitting another fresh contract and 20-year low overnight. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 78.50 and then at the Friday's high of 78.73. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 78.24 and then at 78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.80 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 1.0
The December Euro is modestly higher in early electronic trading and hit a fresh high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4106 and then more stops just below support at 1.4061. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4152 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4037. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on tepid short covering after hitting another fresh contract low overnight. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.00 and then at the Thursday's high of 79.14. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 78.34 and then at 78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.64 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The December Euro is modestly lower in early electronic trading, after hitting a fresh high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4050 and then more stops just below support at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4140 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3935. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today, and hit another fresh 16-month high overnight. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $740.00 and then at $735.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $747.10 and then just above resistance at $750.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $734.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker in early electronic dealings. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Thursday's contract high of $81.92 and then just above resistance at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.58. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, with wheat and corn higher and soybeans slightly lower. Corn bulls have fresh upside technical momentum, amid a fresh focus by traders on demand prospects going forward. Beans are still fully technically bullish with no clues of a market top being close at hand. Wheat is still overall bullish but the market has been trading sideways for several sessions, which means the uptrend has weakened just a bit. Corn and beans will still be impacted by bigger moves in the wheat market.
Friday, September 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity futures traders need to continue to keep a very close watch on the crude oil market. As goes the crude oil market, so will go the raw commodity markets, generally. The major bull run in crude oil to record highs recently has fueled fresh fund buying across the raw commodity futures spectrum.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes and would gain more momentum with weekly high closes today.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,528.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,522.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,552.00 and then at 1,560.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,506.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,534.20
1st Support:------ 1,526.40
2nd Support:------ 1,521.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,539.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,547.40
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 2,052.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,043.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 2,081.00 and then at the contract high of 2,090.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,009.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,059.40
1st Support:------ 2,050.85
2nd Support:------ 2,043.90
1st Resistance:--- 2,066.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,074.90
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,835 and then more stops just below support at 13,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 13,918 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 13,965. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,620
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,918
1st Support:------ 13,821
2nd Support:------ 13,786
1st Resistance:--- 13,904
2nd Resistance:--- 13,952
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer again early today. However, bears have gained fresh downside technical momentum as serious chart damage has occurred this week.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 110 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:109 13/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 18/32
1st Support:----- 109 12/32
2nd Support:----- 108 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 6/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 12/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 109.00.0 and then just above resistance at 109.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday's low of 108.12.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 108.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.27.0
1st Support:------ 108.03.0
2nd Support:------ 107.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.08.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.00.0
The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4013 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.3983. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4086 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3900. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 9.0
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.00 and then at the overnight high of 79.11. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 78.69 and then at 78.43. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.87 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 1.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today, and hit another fresh 16-month high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $735.50 and then at the overnight low of $728.90. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $739.30 and then just above resistance at $745.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $706.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer in early electronic dealings. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday's contract high of $82.51 and then just above resistance at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.61, and then more sell stops just below support at $81.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $77.22. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, with wheat leading gains. For wheat, a major bull market needs to be fed fresh bullish inputs often. Wheat bulls may be running out of those fresh bullish inputs, which would mean a market top is in place. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. Corn and beans will be impacted by bigger moves in the wheat market. Corn and beans are also seeing the bearish seasonal specter of U.S. harvest getting under way.
Thursday, September 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a sharply weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies, and solidly higher gold prices that hit a fresh 16-month high overnight.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index is on the verge of pushing below a major longer-term support zone on the monthly chart, dating back more than 20 years. The bottom of that support zone in nearby U.S. dollar index futures is located at 78.43. A solid push below that price level would produce longer-term technical damage to suggest a fresh leg down in the greenback in the coming days and weeks or months.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,531.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,522.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,541.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,552.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,506.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,541.55
1st Support:------ 1,531.15
2nd Support:------ 1,520.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,551.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,562.25
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,043.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,033.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,062.25 and then at Wednesday's high of 2,081.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,009.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,066.70
1st Support:------ 2,052.35
2nd Support:------ 2,040.70
1st Resistance:--- 2,078.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,092.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,800 and then more stops just below support at 13,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,900 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 13,965. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,611
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,911
1st Support:------ 13,857
2nd Support:------ 13,816
1st Resistance:--- 13,952
2nd Resistance:--- 14,006
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower again early today. Bulls are fading, but no serious chart damage has yet occurred.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 18/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 28/32
1st Support:----- 111 7/32
2nd Support:----- 110 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 1/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.17.5 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 109.29.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 109.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 108.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.19.0
1st Support:------ 109.08.0
2nd Support:------ 108.30.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.08.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on a short covering bounce from a fresh contract low scored overnight. Slow stochastics are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.30 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 79.01 and then at 78.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.07 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3965 and then more stops just below support at 1.3925. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday's contract high of 1.4013 and then at 1.4050. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3857. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh 16-month high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $727.50 and then at $725.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the Tuesday's high of $735.50 and then just above resistance at $737.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $703.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings, and hit a fresh all-time high of $82.38 Tuesday. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $82.38 and then just above resistance at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $80.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $77.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, with wheat leading losses. For wheat, a major bull market needs to be fed fresh bullish inputs often. Wheat bulls may be running out of those fresh bullish inputs, which would mean a market top is in place. Corn and beans will be impacted by bigger moves in the wheat market. Corn and beans are also seeing the bearish seasonal specter of U.S. harvest getting under way.
Tuesday, September 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures prices, on follow-through strength from big gains Tuesday. Also, crude oil futures hit a fresh all-time high above $82.00 a barrel overnight.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock index bulls gained fresh upside technical momentum with Tuesday's big gains. However, it will be very important for the indexes to show follow-through strength yet this week, and not give back a good portion of Tuesday's gains. Also, given the big gains in stock indexes on Tuesday, the U.S. Treasuries did not see real strong downside pressure, and that should be encouraging to the U.S. Treasury market bulls. There are two key U.S. economic reports out this morning: housing starts and CPI.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are moderately higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,531.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,522.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,541.20 and then at 1,550.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,506.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,517.45
1st Support:------ 1,500.90
2nd Support:------ 1,468.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,549.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,566.25
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,043.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,033.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,067.00 and then at the contract high of 2,090.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,009.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,040.40
1st Support:------ 2,019.85
2nd Support:------ 1,980.40
1st Resistance:--- 2,079.85
2nd Resistance:--- 2,100.40
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,800 and then more stops just below support at 13,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,900 and then just above psychological resistance at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,611
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,740
1st Support:------ 13,630
2nd Support:------ 13,424
1st Resistance:--- 13,945
2nd Resistance:--- 14,055
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today. Bulls are fading a bit, amid Tuesday's big gains in the stock market, but no serious chart damage has occurred and overall uptrends on the daily chart are still in place. Remember that lower U.S. interest rates are historically bullish for debt markets.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 112 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:111 21/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 16/32
1st Support:----- 111 29/32
2nd Support:----- 111 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 24/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 109.29.0 and then just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 110.03.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 109.14.5 and then more sell stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 109.11.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.25.0
1st Support:------ 109.15.0
2nd Support:------ 109.02.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.16.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Slow stochastics are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.70 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday's low of 79.41 and then at 79.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.12 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3859 and then more stops just below support at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3909 and then at 1.3930. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh 16-month high overnight. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $725.00 and then at the overnight low of $722.30. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $730.50 and then just above resistance at $735.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $700.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings, and hit a fresh all-time high of $81.24 overnight. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $81.24 and then just above resistance at $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.50, and then more sell stops just below support at $80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $76.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to higher in overnight trading. Corn was steady-weak, beans moderately higher and wheat solidly higher. A hard frost over the northern Corn Belt during the past weekend is bullish beans. Corn is seeing buying interest limited as a big U.S. harvest gets under way. Wheat was stronger again on recent strong demand amid wheat crop problems in several regions of the world.
Tuesday, September 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is quiet and tentative financial, currency and stock markets ahead of this afternoon's critical FOMC announcement.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading in the markets should be quieter and anticipatory today, leading into this afternoon's much-anticipated FOMC announcement on U.S. interest rates. It's widely expected the Fed will lower U.S. interest rates. But what's unclear is by how much and what will be the all-important wording in the Fed's statement. It's been years since an FOMC meeting was so anxiously awaited. What's key about this meeting is that traders have no real consensus on what the Fed will do and say. That's why the markets are so uneasy. Markets generally do not like surprises. Look for higher volatility in many markets after the early-afternoon announcement from the Federal Reserve. My bias is that the U.S. stock market won't benefit much from today's Fed announcement.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid trading that has turned choppy.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,485.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,480.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,497.80 and then at last week's high of 1,504.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,483.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,490.95
1st Support:------ 1,484.10
2nd Support:------ 1,478.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,496.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,503.55
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,999.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,990.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 2,022.00 and then at last week's high of 2,033.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,993.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,009.20
1st Support:------ 1,996.35
2nd Support:------ 1,986.70
1st Resistance:--- 2,018.85
2nd Resistance:--- 2,031.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,467 and then more stops just below support at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 13,580 and then just above resistance at the September high of 13,608. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,437
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,509
1st Support:------ 13,461
2nd Support:------ 13,418
1st Resistance:--- 13,552
2nd Resistance:--- 13,600
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to weaker early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday's high of 113 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week's low of 112 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:111 21/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 28/32
1st Support:----- 112 17/32
2nd Support:----- 112 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 19/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 110.00.0 and then just above resistance at 110.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 109.17.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 109.12.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.25.0
1st Support:------ 109.18.0
2nd Support:------ 109.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.00.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.07.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading. Slow stochastics are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 79.64 and then at 79.76. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday's low of 79.30 and then at the contract low of 79.14. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.12 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3884 and then more stops just below support at 1.3850. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3919 and then at the contract high of 1.3964. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $717.50 and then at the overnight low of $714.80. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $721.50 and then just above resistance at $723.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $698.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker in early electro |
