Name: Jim Wyckoff 
U.S. Dollar Starting Out Weak Again; Other Markets Watching Greenback
Monday, September 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The December U.S. dollar index futures hit another fresh contract low and 20-year low overnight. Longer-term technical support levels have been violated on the downside, which has produced serious technical damage. The weaker greenback versus the other major currencies is the focus of many traders in many markets. Indeed, the U.S. dollar is a major "outside market" for gold, Treasuries, crude oil, the grains, cotton and the stock market. If the U.S. currency continues to weaken significantly, there will probably be jawboning coming from U.S. government officials, trying to "talk" the dollar up. And if that does not work, then government and central bank intervention will likely follow. At that time the currency speculators would start to circle like sharks--likely betting against what the central banks are trying to accomplish.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,532.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's low of 1,528.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 1,543.70 and then at last week's high of 1,552.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,514.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,535.60
1st Support:------ 1,527.45
2nd Support:------ 1,520.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,542.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,550.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,066.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 2,055.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 2,081.00 and then at the contract high of 2,090.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,009.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,067.20
1st Support:------ 2,056.35
2nd Support:------ 2,044.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,079.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,090.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,897 and then more stops just below support at 13,835. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,970 and then just above resistance at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,650
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,923
1st Support:------ 13,875
2nd Support:------ 13,850
1st Resistance:--- 13,948
2nd Resistance:--- 13,996
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker early today. Bears have gained fresh downside technical momentum as serious near-term chart damage has occurred recently.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 110 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday's low of 109 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:110 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 110 17/32
1st Support:----- 110 4/32
2nd Support:----- 109 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 111 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 111 17/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.29.5 and then just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 108.12.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 108.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 108.24.0
1st Support:------ 108.18.0
2nd Support:------ 108.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 109.04.0
2nd Resistance:--- 109.10.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading, after hitting another fresh contract and 20-year low overnight. Slow stochastics are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 78.50 and then at the Friday's high of 78.73. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 78.24 and then at 78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.80 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 1.0
The December Euro is modestly higher in early electronic trading and hit a fresh high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4106 and then more stops just below support at 1.4061. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4152 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4037. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
