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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« September 2007 |
Main
| November 2007 »
October 2007 Archives
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, and hit a fresh contract low and all-time low overnight. Bears still have downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.00 and then at 77.21. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 76.59 and then at 76.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The December Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, and did hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4435 and then more stops just below support at 1.4400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4479 and then at 1.4500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4348. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $785.00 and then at the overnight low of $780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $790.00 and then just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $795.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $779.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer in early electronic dealings. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $91.00 and then just above resistance at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00, and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $98.92. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was lower and corn and beans were higher. Wheat bulls are tired and the market still looks toppy. Traders are still focusing on the important "outside markets." A lack of major fresh fundamental news in the grains will also favor the bears.
Wednesday, October 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock index prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I would not be surprised at some point in the coming weeks to see the crude oil futures market make a very sharp downside "correction" that could even include prices trading down the daily limit of $10.00 a barrel. It's also my bias that at present the risk in the crude oil market is for a bigger price move on the downside than for a bigger price move on the upside.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some slight near-term technical momentum on their side. Trading should be more active this afternoon, after the FOMC announcement on U.S. interest rates.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,534.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,530.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,550.70 and then at 1,555.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,551.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,539.60
1st Support:------ 1,531.40
2nd Support:------ 1,526.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,544.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,552.40
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,216.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,200.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 2,233.00 and then at 2,250.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,190.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,218.90
1st Support:------ 2,204.85
2nd Support:------ 2,191.90
1st Resistance:--- 2,231.85
2nd Resistance:--- 2,245.90
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,810 and then more stops just below support at 13,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 13,885 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 13,934. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,957
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,839
1st Support:------ 13,793
2nd Support:------ 13,764
1st Resistance:--- 13,868
2nd Resistance:--- 13,914
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today. Prices are still pausing at present, and that is not yet bearish. Look for more active trading this afternoon, following the FOMC announcement.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 113 26/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday's low of 113 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 18/32
1st Support:----- 113 9/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 5/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.22.0 and then just above resistance at 111.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 110.11.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 110.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.20.0
1st Support:------ 110.17.0
2nd Support:------ 110.12.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.28.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on a tepid short-covering bounce. Bears still have downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.00 and then at 77.21. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 76.79 and then at 76.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.30 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4363 and then more stops just below support at 1.4300. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the contract high of 1.4448 and then at 1.4500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4330. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today, on a profit-taking pullback from recent strong gains. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $785.00 and then at $780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $790.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $795.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $779.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings, on profit taking. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $93.70 and then just above resistance at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $91.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Traders are still focusing on the important "outside markets," and the overnight losses in grains were mainly due to overnight losses in crude oil and gold. Amid a lack of major fresh fundamental news in the grains, look for grain traders to continue to keep their main focus on the outside markets.
Tuesday, October 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower raw commodity futures prices, with crude oil and gold futures leading on the downside.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading in the stock, financial and currency markets may be more subdued today, ahead of Wednesday afternoon's Federal Reserve decision on U.S. interest rates, in which the FOMC is expected to cut rates by 0.25%. Another thought: At present, most traders expect crude oil futures prices to hit $100.00 a barrel soon. That makes me suspect crude prices will move closer to the century mark, but not hit it--at least not during this present uptrend. Remember that the majority of the futures trading public is wrong in their thought process most of the time.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,530.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,520.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,547.80 and then at 1,555.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,551.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,546.25
1st Support:------ 1,541.80
2nd Support:------ 1,546.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,551.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,555.95
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,188.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,175.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 2,215.50 and then at the contract high of 2,229.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,190.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,216.35
1st Support:------ 2,203.70
2nd Support:------ 2,191.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,228.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,240.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,860 and then more stops just below support at 13,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 13,934 and then just above resistance at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,858
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,900
1st Support:------ 13,867
2nd Support:------ 13,826
1st Resistance:--- 13,941
2nd Resistance:--- 13,974
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today. Prices are pausing at present, and that is not bearish.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 114 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday's low of 113 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 17/32
1st Support:----- 113 8/32
2nd Support:----- 112 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 7/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 110.25.0 and then just above resistance at 111.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 110.11.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 110.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.19.0
1st Support:------ 110.13.0
2nd Support:------ 110.05.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.01.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, and hit another fresh contract and all-time low overnight. Bears still have downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.00 and then at Friday's high of 77.21. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 76.79 and then at 76.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.30 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4400 and then more stops just below support at 1.4363. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4448 and then at 1.4500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4330. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh 18-month high overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $790.00 and then at the overnight low of $787.70. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $798.30 and then just above major psychological resistance at $800.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $779.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings, and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $93.20 and then just above resistance at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $91.52, and then more sell stops just below support at $91.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading. Traders are focusing on the important "outside markets," and the overnight gains in grains were mainly due to strong gains in crude oil and gold, which both pushed to fresh contract highs overnight.
Monday, October 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher raw commodity futures prices, including another fresh all-time high in the price of crude oil futures and multi-month highs in gold.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It appears that the commodity bulls want to run some more today, amid a weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. The U.S. dollar index hit another fresh contract and all-time low in overnight trading. For all commodity traders, the crude oil and gold futures markets will likely be the leader, and will remain the key "outside markets" to monitor.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are regaining near-term technical momentum after producing bullish weekly high closes on Friday.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,541.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,530.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,550.00 and then at 1,555.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,551.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,535.90
1st Support:------ 1,528.55
2nd Support:------ 1,514.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,549.95
2nd Resistance:--- 1,557.30
Nasdaq Index: Prices poked to another fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,206.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 2,188.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 2,229.00 and then at 2,250.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,190.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,205.10
1st Support:------ 2,190.20
2nd Support:------ 2,173.10
1st Resistance:--- 2,222.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,237.10
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,800 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 13,733. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,900 and then just above resistance at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,961
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,812
1st Support:------ 13,769
2nd Support:------ 13,690
1st Resistance:--- 13,891
2nd Resistance:--- 13,934
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower early today. Bulls are fading and need to show power soon.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 113 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 28/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 17/32
1st Support:----- 113 5/32
2nd Support:----- 112 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 8/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.19.5 and then just above resistance at 110.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 110.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 110.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.21.0
1st Support:------ 110.14.0
2nd Support:------ 110.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.04.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today, and hit a fresh contract and all-time low overnight. Bears still have downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.21 and then at 77.53. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 77.01 and then at 76.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.47 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4297 and then more stops just below support at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4355 and then at 1.4400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4278. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh 11-month high overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $775.00 and then at the overnight low of $771.80. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $782.20 and then just above resistance at $785.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $770.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher in early electronic dealings and set new highs again overnight. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $92.22 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.20, and then more sell stops just below support at $89.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $89.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, amid solid gains overnight in the key “outside markets” like gold and crude. The U.S. dollar is also weaker, which is bullish for grains at present. Wheat bears still have some downside technical momentum, and if wheat sees sharp losses today, then corn and soybeans will find gains limited.
Friday, October 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher crude oil prices that pushed above $92 a barrel overnight, and sharply higher gold prices that hit a fresh 11-month high.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With crude oil and gold prices soaring today, these two key “outside markets” will likely pull many other commodity futures markets higher today, inviting fresh speculative interest on the long side of the these markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,521.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,510.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,529.20 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,540.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,520.05
1st Support:------ 1,510.60
2nd Support:------ 1,496.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,534.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,544.05
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,180.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday’s low of 2,159.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 2,221.00 and then at 2,235.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,187.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,190.70
1st Support:------ 2,161.60
2nd Support:------ 2,129.95
1st Resistance:--- 2,222.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,251.40
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,700 and then more stops just below support at Thursday’s low of 13,585. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 13,775 and then just above resistance at 13,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,763
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,700
1st Support:------ 13,624
2nd Support:------ 13,510
1st Resistance:--- 13,814
2nd Resistance:--- 13,890
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower early today. However, bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side after early-week gains.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 114 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 5/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 21/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 16/32
2nd Support:----- 113 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 even
2nd Resistance:-- 114 9/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.25.0 and then just above resistance at 111.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 110.19.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 110.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.28.0
1st Support:------ 110.21.0
2nd Support:------ 110.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 111.01.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.08.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bears still have downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.53 and then at this week's high of 78.18. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.27 and then at contract low of 77.15. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.67 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4259 and then more stops just below support at 1.4200. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4327 and then at the contract high of 1.4363. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4240. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $765.50 and then at $760.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $771.80 and then just above resistance at last week's high of $776.90. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $767.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings and set new highs overnight. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $88.99 and then just above resistance at $90.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $87.54, and then more sell stops just below support at $87.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $86.85. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were higher and wheat was solidly lower. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales data, which has been bullish recently. Wheat bears have good downside technical momentum, and if wheat sees sharp losses today, then corn and soybeans will find gains limited. Traders are still keeping an eye on the important "outside markets" today, which are mostly bullish in early dealings. The U.S. dollar is weaker today and gold and crude oil prices are higher. My bias is still that corn and beans do not have a lot of upside price potential in the near term.
Thursday, October 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes, weaker Treasuries and a solid gains in crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading in the stock indexes has become more volatile in recent days. My bias is that this higher volatility is favoring the bearish camp and that there may still be some rough sailing for the stock index bulls in the near term.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,517.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,529.10 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,540.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,514.00
1st Support:------ 1,498.20
2nd Support:------ 1,503.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,532.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,542.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,200.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,185.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the contract high of 2,221.00 and then at 2,235.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,187.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,189.00
1st Support:------ 2,168.00
2nd Support:------ 2,133.00
1st Resistance:--- 2,224.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,245.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,600 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,505. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,800 and then just above resistance at 13,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,763
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,645
1st Support:------ 13,566
2nd Support:------ 13,425
1st Resistance:--- 13,786
2nd Resistance:--- 13,865
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower early today. However, bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side after recent gains.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 2/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 114 5/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 21/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 24/32
1st Support:----- 113 11/32
2nd Support:----- 112 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 11/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 24/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 111.02.5 and then just above resistance at Wednesday’s contract high of 111.06.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 110.24.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 110.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.29.0
1st Support:------ 110.20.0
2nd Support:------ 110.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 111.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.20.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is modestly higher in early trading today. Bears still have downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.77 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.47 and then at 77.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.80 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4201 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 1.4184. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4282 and then at 1.4300. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4197. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $755.00 and then at this week's low of $749.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $763.90 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of $765.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $766.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower in early electronic dealings. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $86.00 and then just above resistance at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.68, and then more sell stops just below support at $84.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $84.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, with wheat leading losses. The bulls are fading again. Traders are still focusing on the important "outside markets" today. My bias is still that the grains do not have a lot of upside price potential in the near term. The bulls do appear to be tired in the grains.
Wednesday, October 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock indexes and higher U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I'm traveling to Chicago when I get done writing this morning's report. I'm doing a webinar at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange this afternoon and then I'm speaking at an industry event Friday morning. I like the city of Chicago. I started my career working on the trading floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange around 25 years ago. I was very fortunate as a cub reporter to be able to work right on the trading floors and ask questions to traders and analysts. It was a great way to begin to learn about this fascinating business. The trading floors have changed in the past 25 years: much less warm bodies on the trading floor and many more computer screens. The most pronounced example of this phenomenon is the U.S. Treasury bond pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. When I worked on the trading floor, the bond pit was huge, with literally hundreds of traders yelling and jostling for a better position in the pit. When I walked into the bond trading room at the CBOT last summer, I was shocked to see a handful of traders in a quiet little pit. The computer screens outnumbered the traders! I do think electronic trading is a good thing for the industry and for individual traders. Fills on trades are executed faster and generally with less slippage. Broker commission prices have come down in recent years, too.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are trying to regain solid technical footing and need to show more power soon.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,510.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,523.40 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,527.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,530.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,521.15
1st Support:------ 1,514.80
2nd Support:------ 1,504.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,531.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,538.15
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,192.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 2,177.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,207.25 and then at the contract high of 2,221.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,173.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,203.30
1st Support:------ 2,185.70
2nd Support:------ 2,159.35
1st Resistance:--- 2,229.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,247.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,585 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 13,730 and then just above resistance at 13,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,760
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,674
1st Support:------ 13,618
2nd Support:------ 13,529
1st Resistance:--- 13,763
2nd Resistance:--- 13,819
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at this week's high of 113 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 114 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 12/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 5/32
1st Support:----- 112 29/32
2nd Support:----- 112 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 22/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 110.31.0 and then just above resistance at 111.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 110.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of 110.06.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.27.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.14.0
1st Support:------ 110.08.0
2nd Support:------ 110.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.22.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.28.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bears have quickly regained downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.99 and then at Monday's high of 78.18. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.33 and then at contract low of 77.15. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.90 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4184 and then more stops just below support at 1.4139. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4300 and then at the contract high of 1.4363. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4197. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $760.00 and then at the overnight low of $756.80. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $770.00 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of $772.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $766.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then just above resistance at $87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.55, and then more sell stops just below support at $85.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $87.10. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Traders are again focusing on the important "outside markets" today, which are mostly bullish in early dealings. The U.S. dollar is weaker today and gold and crude oil prices are higher. My bias is still that the grains do not have a lot of upside price potential in the near term.
Tuesday, October 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes, weaker Treasuries and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
While Monday gave the U.S. stock index bulls a respite after big losses Friday, the stock index bulls are not "out of the woods" yet. Where the stock indexes end up at the end of this week will likely be more important for price direction in the indexes the rest of this year. I am still bullish the U.S. Treasury market and feel that dips are buying opportunities in T-Bonds and T-Notes.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Positive corporate earnings report issued after the close on Monday have given the stock market a lift in early dealings.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,505.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday's low of 1,492.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,522.30 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,530.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,507.15
1st Support:------ 1,498.85
2nd Support:------ 1,484.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,521.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,530.10
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,177.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,160.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,200.00 and then at the contract high of 2,218.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,173.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,159.10
1st Support:------ 2,141.20
2nd Support:------ 2,110.60
1st Resistance:--- 2,189.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,207.60
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,550 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,700 and then just above resistance at 13,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,760
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,565
1st Support:------ 13,495
2nd Support:------ 13,380
1st Resistance:--- 13,680
2nd Resistance:--- 13,750
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower early today. Treasuries are now trading at a more pronounced inverse relationship with the U.S. stock indexes.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 17/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 12/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 10/32
1st Support:----- 112 26/32
2nd Support:----- 112 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 06/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.14.0 and then just above resistance at 110.24.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 110.06.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.27.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.16.0
1st Support:------ 110.03.0
2nd Support:------ 109.26.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.06.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today, after hitting a fresh contract low and all-time low overnight. A strong close on the upside today would give the bulls some fresh near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.03 and then at Thursday's high of 78.27. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.58 and then at the overnight contract low of 77.15. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.90 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading, after hitting a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4149 and then more stops just below support at 1.4100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4200 and then at 1.4250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4073. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $749.00 and then at $745.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $760.00 and then just above resistance at $765.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $745.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply lower in early electronic dealings, on profit-taking. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $86.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.73, and then more sell stops just below support at $84.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $84.36. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Traders will again focus on the "outside markets" today, which are sharply lower in early dealings. The U.S. dollar is stronger today and gold and crude oil prices are sharply lower. My bias is still that the grains do not have a lot of upside price potential in the near term.
Monday, October 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock indexes and generally lower commodity futures markets.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The start of the new trading week looks to be an ugly one for the bulls in most markets, except for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar bulls. Another big down day in the stock market today could really rattle investors, again. There is now more widespread talk of recession in the U.S. economy. Here's an important point for traders--especially commodity traders--to remember: Slowing economic growth means less demand for raw commodities, and that raises the specter of deflation. Deflation is the arch enemy of commodity market bulls.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning electronic trading. Bears have fresh downside technical momentum on their side, after big losses and bearish weekly low closes on Friday.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,490.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,480.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,506.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 2.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,486.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,520.15
1st Support:------ 1,490.80
2nd Support:------ 1,475.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,535.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,564.50
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,128.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,120.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 2,149.00 and then at 2,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,126.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,171.25
1st Support:------ 2,124.50
2nd Support:------ 2,099.25
1st Resistance:--- 2,196.50
2nd Resistance:--- 2,243.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,450 and then more stops just below support at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,500 and then just above resistance at Friday's low of 13,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,283
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,673
1st Support:------ 13,437
2nd Support:------ 13,313
1st Resistance:--- 13,797
2nd Resistance:--- 14,033
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum, amid "flight-to-quality" into safer investments like the Treasuries.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 114 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 20/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 31/32
1st Support:----- 112 14/32
2nd Support:----- 111 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 10/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.28.8 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 110.31.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 101.18.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.29.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.13.0
1st Support:------ 110.01.0
2nd Support:------ 109.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.10.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, and hit a fresh contract low and all-time low overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.53 and then at Thursday's high of 77.85. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 77.35 and then at 77.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.88 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4281 and then more stops just below support at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4340 and then at 1.4400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4224. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh 10.5-month high overnight. Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $769.50 and then at $765.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $776.90 and then just above resistance at $780.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $757.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings and hit a fresh contract and all-time high above $90.00 overnight. Bulls are still technically very strong, but the market is still short-term overbought and due for at least a bigger downside correction soon. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $90.07 and then just above resistance at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $88.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $87.56. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was solidly higher, corn firmer and soybeans slightly lower. Traders will again focus on the "outside markets" today, which are still fully bullish. The U.S. dollar is weaker today and gold and crude oil prices are higher. The outside markets are fueling keener speculative interest on the long side of the grain futures markets. My bias is that the grains do not have a lot of upside price potential in the near term.
Friday, October 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. Treasury futures prices, and crude oil prices poking above $90.00 a barrel overnight.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With the U.S. dollar index trading at an all-time low, keen focus continues to be on the value of the greenback. One has to wonder when U.S. or other government officials start to actively "jawbone" and try to talk the dollar back up. That tactic rarely works and can even have the opposite effect of further encouraging speculators to hammer the dollar down.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are mixed in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,534.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,525.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,549.50 and then at Thursday's high of 1,555.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,536.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,542.40
1st Support:------ 1,535.30
2nd Support:------ 1,528.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,549.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,556.10
Nasdaq Index: Prices poked to a fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 2,189.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 2,218.00 and then at 2,230.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,176.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,198.00
1st Support:------ 2,186.00
2nd Support:------ 2,166.00
1st Resistance:--- 2,218.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,230.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,879 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,830. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 13,970 and then just above resistance at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,840
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,930
1st Support:------ 13,889
2nd Support:------ 13,839
1st Resistance:--- 13,980
2nd Resistance:--- 14,021
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 20/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 111 30/32
1st Support:----- 111 20/32
2nd Support:----- 111 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 112 24/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.07.0 and then just above resistance at 110.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 109.28.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 109.20.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.29.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 109.24.0
1st Support:------ 109.17.0
2nd Support:------ 109.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.03.0
2nd Resistance:--- 110.10.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today, and hit a fresh contract low and 20-plus year low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.93 and then at Wednesday's high of 78.16. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.50 and then at 77.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.08 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4250 and then more stops just below support at 1.4200. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4350 and then at 1.4400. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4201. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.5
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