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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« October 2007 |
Main
| December 2007 »
November 2007 Archives
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bulls have regained some fresh upside technical momentum this week. A weekly high close would give the bulls added strength. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.00 and then at 76.23. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.54 and then at Thursday's low of 75.32. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.97 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.4719 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4800 and then at 1.4850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4697. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading near steady in early dealings today. Bulls are fading. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $792.00 and then at $790.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $800.00 and then just above resistance at $805.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $798.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today, with prices hitting a fresh four-week low and falling below $90 a barrel. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $90.00 and then just above resistance at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00, and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $88.52. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $88.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Solid losses in crude oil overnight pressured the grains overnight. Grain bulls will be on shaky ground in the coming weeks if the crude oil market tumbles. The "outside markets" gold, crude oil and the dollar are still the main drivers in the grain markets. Bean bulls are still in technical command, but wheat bulls became technically exhausted on Thursday. For more on grains, make sure to read my afternoon "Daily Markets Update" report. If you don't have access to that report, email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll email it back to you.
Friday, November 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today is solid losses in crude oil futures prices, which have fallen below $90.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The crude oil market bulls' push for prices cracking $100.00 a barrel to a big hit this week--at least for now. Prices have dropped sharply from the recent all-time high above $99.00 a barrel scored last week. Importantly, a major U.S. oil pipeline fire late Wednesday could not push crude past the century mark. Granted, the damage from that fire was not as extensive as initially feared. However, that was a major fundamentally bullish shock, at least initially, to the crude oil market, and prices still could not reach the century mark.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have fresh near-term technical momentum on their side, and bullish weekly high closes on Friday would give the bulls added technical strength.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,468.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,461.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,490.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,496.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,469.80
1st Support:------ 1,462.60
2nd Support:------ 1,453.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,478.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,485.80
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day, but has turned up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,095.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 2,085.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,128.50 and then at 2,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,153.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,100.00
1st Support:------ 2,085.70
2nd Support:------ 2,070.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,114.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,128.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,300 and then more stops just below support at Thursday's low of 13,240. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,450 and then just above resistance at 13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,366
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,314
1st Support:------ 12,259
2nd Support:------ 13,184
1st Resistance:--- 13,389
2nd Resistance:--- 13,444
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 118 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 117 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 17/32
1st Support:----- 116 34/32
2nd Support:----- 115 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 15/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.00.0 and then just above resistance at Thursday's high of 114.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.23.5 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 113.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.05.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.27.0
1st Support:------ 113.12.0
2nd Support:------ 112.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.17.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.00.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading again today. Bulls are regaining some fresh upside technical momentum this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.00 and then at 76.23. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.18 and then at 75.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.97 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.4719 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4800 and then at the overnight high of 1.4851. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4697. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading firmer in early dealings today. Bulls are fading. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $799.80 and then at $795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $807.80 and then just above resistance at $810.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $798.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today on news of a major oil pipeline fire in northern Minnesota. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $94.00 and then just above resistance at today's high of $95.17. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00, and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $91.22. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $91.68. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Gains in gold and crude aided the grain bulls overnight. But gains were limited by the stronger U.S. dollar overnight. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. The "outside markets" gold, crude oil and the dollar are still the main drivers in the grain markets. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present. Corn bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. In wheat, the bulls have regained solid near-term technical momentum recently, but I still do not think wheat prices will surpass the highs seen a few months ago.
Thursday, November 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a big rebound in crude oil futures prices and another strong rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The big rebound in the U.S. stock indexes on Wednesday is a technical clue that trading action in the stock indexes will be choppy and non-trending at least into the end of the year.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,454.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,4500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,472.50 and then at 1,480.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,465.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,455.35
1st Support:------ 1,435.90
2nd Support:------ 1,401.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,490.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,509.55
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,072.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,050.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 2,107.00 and then at 2,128.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,119.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,075.50
1st Support:------ 2,044.00
2nd Support:------ 1,992.50
1st Resistance:--- 2,127.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,158.50
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,200 and then more stops just below support at 13,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 13,350 and then just above resistance at 13,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,224
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,231
1st Support:------ 13,111
2nd Support:------ 12,916
1st Resistance:--- 13,426
2nd Resistance:--- 13,546
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today. No serious near-term chart damage has occurred this week.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 117 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 116 13/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 4/32
1st Support:----- 116 17/32
2nd Support:----- 116 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 6/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 114.00.5 and then just above resistance at 114.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.10.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 113.04.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.05.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.18.0
1st Support:------ 113.03.0
2nd Support:------ 112.25.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.38.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.11.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today. Bulls are fading. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $791.00 and then at $785.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $805.00 and then just above resistance at $810.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $798.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls are stronger today than they've been in weeks. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.00 and then at 75.23. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.33 and then at the overnight low of 75.12. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.97 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4719 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4800 and then at the overnight high of 1.4847. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4697. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady in early electronic dealings. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then just above resistance at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $93.72, and then more sell stops just below support at $93.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Solid losses in gold and a stronger U.S. dollar pressured the grains. The "outside markets" gold, crude oil and the dollar are still the main drivers in the grain markets. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present. Corn bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. In wheat, the bulls have regained solid near-term technical momentum recently.
Wednesday, November 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower gold oil prices and a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
A strong performance by the U.S. dollar this week, as shown by the U.S. dollar index, would be an early clue that the greenback is finally bottoming out and ready to regain some strength versus the other major currencies. Today, the dollar index is showing the most strength its been able to muster in weeks. This week's trading action will be extra important for the dollar and for other markets like gold, which track the dollar closely.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,420.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,406.30. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,440.00 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,440.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,421.75
1st Support:------ 1,411.00
2nd Support:------ 1,395.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,437.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,447.95
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,024.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,000.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,072.00 and then at 2,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,060.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,022.70
1st Support:------ 2,005.35
2nd Support:------ 1,978.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,049.85
2nd Resistance:--- 2,067.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,900 and then more stops just below support at 12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 13,015 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 13,060. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,085
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,920
1st Support:------ 12,825
2nd Support:------ 12,695
1st Resistance:--- 13,050
2nd Resistance:--- 13,145
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower early today. Bulls are fading, technically, after a strong performance Monday. No serious near-term chart damage has occurred, however.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 118 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week's low of 116 17/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 19/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 24/32
1st Support:----- 116 21/32
2nd Support:----- 115 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 23/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.00.5 and then just above resistance at 114.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.15.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.05.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.01.0
1st Support:------ 113.11.0
2nd Support:------ 112.25.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.19.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.09.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the solid technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.10 and then at 75.32. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 74.82 and then at the contract low of 74.65. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.22 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4821 and then more stops just below support at 1.4760. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4900 and then at the contract high of 1.4977. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4812. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $810.00 and then at $805.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $820.00 and then just above resistance at $825.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $805.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower in early electronic dealings. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and then just above resistance at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $94.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were weaker and wheat was higher. The "outside markets" gold and crude oil are solidly lower today and that will prompt selling interest in the grains. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present. Corn bulls still have some upside technical momentum. In wheat, the bulls have regained solid near-term technical momentum recently.
Tuesday, November 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower gold and crude oil prices, and a rebound in the U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Sentiment among stock market investors has turned overall bearish amid worries about a U.S. economic recession. My bias is that rallies in the U.S. stock indexes will be selling opportunities. At the same time, weakness in U.S. Treasury prices will be buying opportunities.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses on Monday. The bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage as prices are still in a downtrend from the October highs.
December S&P 500: Prices dipped to a fresh 3.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,406.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,400.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,428.60 and then at 1,437.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,441.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,423.50
1st Support:------ 1,392.80
2nd Support:------ 1,376.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,440.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,470.70
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,993.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support a the November low of 1,983.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,021.00 and then at 2,037.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,060.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,015.35
1st Support:------ 1,977.70
2nd Support:------ 1,955.35
1st Resistance:--- 2,037.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,075.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,750 and then more stops just below support at the August low of 12,680. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,900 and then just above resistance at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,999
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,881
1st Support:------ 12,661
2nd Support:------ 12,551
1st Resistance:--- 12,971
2nd Resistance:--- 13,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today, on a corrective pullback from huge gains on Monday. But the bulls remain technically strong, amid no early clues of market tops being close at hand.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 119 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 2/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 117 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:117 10/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 9/32
1st Support:----- 117 6/32
2nd Support:----- 115 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 4/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.22.5 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 114.31.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.01.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.08.0
1st Support:------ 113.18.0
2nd Support:------ 112.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.15.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.05.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today, and did hit another fresh contract and all-time low on Friday. Bears still have the solid technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.20 and then at 75.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 74.65 and then at 74.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.22 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.5
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4810 and then more stops just below support at 1.4760. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4900 and then at the overnight contract high of 1.4977. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4812. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $822.90 and then at $815.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $837.20 and then just above resistance at $840.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early electronic dealings. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $99.11 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $99.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $97.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $96.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $95.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, amid higher "outside markets." Same story: The "outside markets" gold and crude oil, along with the U.S. dollar, will continue to dictate price movement in the grains. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present, but corn bulls also have fresh upside technical momentum. In wheat, the bulls have regained solid near-term technical momentum recently.
Monday, November 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold and crude oil prices. Crude oil is at record highs and nearing the $100 a barrel level, while gold is nearing its all-time high set 27 years ago.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I've said it before but it's worth repeating: Crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies are still a powerful axis that is impacting most other commodity and financial markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. The bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage as prices are still in a downtrend from the October highs.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,441.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,430.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,454.20 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,458.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,434.45
1st Support:------ 1,425.00
2nd Support:------ 1,408.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,451.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,460.85
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,033.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,014.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,049.00 and then at last week's high of 2,072.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,060.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,025.35
1st Support:------ 2,013.70
2nd Support:------ 1,994.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,044.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,055.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,890 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 12,810. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,085 and then just above resistance at 13,175. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,045
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,958
1st Support:------ 12,918
2nd Support:------ 12,851
1st Resistance:--- 13,025
2nd Resistance:--- 13,065
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today. But the bulls remain technically strong, amid no early clues of market tops being close at hand.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the contract high of 116 31/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 117 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday's low of 116 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 116 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 23/32
1st Support:----- 116 16/32
2nd Support:----- 116 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 11/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.12.0 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 113.23.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 112.27.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.25.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.14.0
1st Support:------ 113.07.0
2nd Support:------ 113.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.21.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.28.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today, and did hit another fresh contract and all-time low overnight. Bears still have the solid technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 75.32 and then at 75.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 74.65 and then at 74.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.22 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading, but did hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4786 and then more stops just below support at 1.4760. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4900 and then at the overnight contract high of 1.4977. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4826. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $805.00 and then at $8000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $816.00 and then just above resistance at $820.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $820.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower in early electronic dealings. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $97.64 and then just above resistance at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $96.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $95.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $95.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. The "outside markets" gold and crude oil, along with the U.S. dollar, will continue to dictate price movement in the grains. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present, while corn bulls still have some upside technical momentum. In wheat, the bulls have regained some near-term technical momentum.
Friday, November 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in U.S. stock index prices. Gold is higher and crude oil is lower early.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Some New York futures markets are closed today, and the grains and livestock futures markets close early today. Regarding the crude oil market, the fact that prices have sold off since Wednesday's bullish weekly DOE report does suggest that all the bullish fundamental news is factored into the crude oil market at present, and it may now take some other fresh bullish fundamental to drive prices above the much-anticipated $100 a barrel level.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. The bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are in a downtrend from the October highs.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,417.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,410.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,447.60 and then at this week's high of 1,456.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,448.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,427.55
1st Support:------ 1,407.50
2nd Support:------ 1,397.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,437.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,457.95
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 1,991.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this month's low of 1,983.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the Wednesday's high of 2,046.00 and then at this week's high of 2,072.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,057.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,014.20
1st Support:------ 1,982.35
2nd Support:------ 1,959.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,037.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,069.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week's low of 12,810 and then more stops just below support at 12,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 12,992 and then just above resistance at 13,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,034
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,873
1st Support:------ 12,753
2nd Support:------ 12,691
1st Resistance:--- 12,935
2nd Resistance:--- 13,055
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today. But the bulls remain technically very strong, amid no early clues of market tops being close at hand.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the contract high of 116 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 117 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 116 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 15/32
1st Support:----- 115 31/32
2nd Support:----- 115 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 15/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.20.0 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 113.23.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 112.27.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.25.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.11.0
1st Support:------ 112.30.0
2nd Support:------ 112.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.07.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today, and did hit a fresh contract and all-time low overnight. Bears still have the technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 75.50 and then at 75.80. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 74.98 and then at 74.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.46 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.5
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading, and did poke to a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4760 and then more stops just below support at 1.4700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4863 and then at 1.4900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4735. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $795.40 and then at $790.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $808.00 and then just above resistance at $810.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $810.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early electronic dealings. Prices did hit an all-time high of $99.29 overnight. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $99.29 and then just above resistance at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $97.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $96.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $95.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were lower and wheat was higher. Not much new. The "outside markets" gold and crude oil, along with the U.S. dollar, will dictate price movement in the grains. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present, while corn bulls still have some upside technical momentum, but are fading a bit. In wheat, the bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field.
Wednesday, November 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is crude oil prices that hit a record high overnight, at $99.29 a barrel. The major psychological resistance level of $100.00 could well be hit today. Traders will closely watch today's weekly U.S. energy stocks data from the DOE.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Pre-holiday trading usually makes for thin and less liquid market action. Look for that today in most markets. During times of "thin" markets, price moves can become exaggerated and more easily moved by traders.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning electronic trading. The bears have the near-term technical advantage as prices are in a downtrend from the October highs.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,422.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,410.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,447.60 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,456.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,451.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,441.40
1st Support:------ 1,426.75
2nd Support:------ 1,407.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,460.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,475.20
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,010.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,995.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,037.00 and then at this week's high of 2,072.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,057.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,034.20
1st Support:------ 1,996.35
2nd Support:------ 1,957.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,073.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,111.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,865 and then more stops just below support at 12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 13,133 and then just above resistance at 13,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,078
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,019
1st Support:------ 12,906
2nd Support:------ 12,751
1st Resistance:--- 13,174
2nd Resistance:--- 13,287
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly higher early today and hit fresh contract highs overnight. The bulls remain technically very strong, amid no early clues of market tops being close at hand.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 116 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 117 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 115 30/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 23/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 5/32
1st Support:----- 115 27/32
2nd Support:----- 115 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 25/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 113.19.0 and then just above resistance at 113.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.23.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.01.0
1st Support:------ 112.22.0
2nd Support:------ 112.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.13.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.24.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $785.00 and then at $780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $795.00 and then just above resistance at $800.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $796.80. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Bears still have the technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 75.80 and then at the overnight high of 75.92. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.28 and then at the contract low of 75.06. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.23 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.5
The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4700 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.4642. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.4805 and then at 1.4850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4704. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher in early electronic dealings. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and then just above resistance at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $94.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $93.42. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. However, higher "outside markets" gold and crude oil, along with a weaker dollar today, will limit selling interest in the grains, and probably at least take the markets above unchanged at some point. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present, while corn bulls still have some upside technical momentum. In wheat, the bears still have downside technical momentum but short covering amid higher corn and bean prices would not be unexpected.
Tuesday, November 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly lower U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. There are rumors in the financial market today that the Federal Reserve Board will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the U.S. credit crisis.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Have you taken a look at a daily chart for copper lately? Prices are in a steep downtrend and today hit a fresh multi-month low. There's an old trading adage that copper is a leading indicator of the stock market and the U.S. economy. If that is indeed the case this time, then stocks and the U.S. economy are headed for some stiff headwinds.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Trading has become choppy. Look for quieter activity the rest of this week, due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,437.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday's low of 1,433.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,454.70 and then at 1,466.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,442.00
1st Support:------ 1,429.30
2nd Support:------ 1,421.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,450.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,462.90
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,030.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,014.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 2,062.75 and then at 2,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,057.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,037.58
1st Support:------ 2,007.40
2nd Support:------ 1,986.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,058.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,088.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,965 and then more stops just below support at 12,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 13,145 and then just above resistance at 13,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,246
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,034
1st Support:------ 12,924
2nd Support:------ 12,854
1st Resistance:--- 13,104
2nd Resistance:--- 13,214
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker early today, on some mild profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the contract high of 116 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 116 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 15/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 4/32
1st Support:----- 115 13/32
2nd Support:----- 114 16/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 24/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.04.5 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 113.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.24.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 112.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.17.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 111.28.0
1st Support:------ 112.14.0
2nd Support:------ 111.24.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.18.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.00.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Bears still have the technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 76.23 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.69 and then at last week's low of 75.41. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.23 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The December Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4629 and then more stops just below support at 1.4589. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4696 and then at the contract high of 1.4760. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4521. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at last week's low of $783.00 and then at $780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $790.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $794.90. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $797.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $95.15 and then just above resistance at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $92.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $93.42. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. The "outside markets" gold and crude oil are steady to higher today, which will be bullish for the grains today. Soybeans are still the most bullish from a technical perspective at present, while corn bulls still have some upside technical momentum. In wheat, the bears still have downside technical momentum but short covering amid higher corn and bean prices would not be unexpected.
Monday, November 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index prices. Look for a quieter trading week this week, due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is still that the U.S. Treasuries are one of the most bullish markets and there is still more room on the upside despite prices recently hitting fresh contract highs. And it's also my bias that there is not a lot of room left on the upside in crude oil prices.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Trading has become choppy recently.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,447.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,437.30. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,465.50 and then at 1,480.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,470.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,459.10
1st Support:------ 1,449.60
2nd Support:------ 1,439.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,468.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,477.20
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,035.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,000.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,062.75 and then at 2,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,057.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,043.50
1st Support:------ 2,026.00
2nd Support:------ 1,996.75
1st Resistance:--- 2,073.75
2nd Resistance:--- 2,090.25
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 13,080 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 12,985. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,240 and then just above resistance at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,246
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,170
1st Support:------ 13,100
2nd Support:------ 13,010
1st Resistance:--- 13,260
2nd Resistance:--- 13,330
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the contract high of 115 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 116 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:114 14/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 15/32
1st Support:----- 115 7/32
2nd Support:----- 114 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 27/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 3/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 112.20.0 and then just above resistance at 112.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.06.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 112.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 111.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.14.0
1st Support:------ 112.07.0
2nd Support:------ 112.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 111.21.0
2nd Resistance:--- 112.28.0
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bears still have the solid technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.17 and then at this week's high of 76.23. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.65 and then at this week's low of 75.41. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.23 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4589 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 1.4528. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4655 and then at 1.4700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4521. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $786.20 and then at this week's low of $783.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $800.00 and then just above resistance at $805.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $808.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early electronic dealings. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then just above resistance at $96.00. Look for sell stops ju |
