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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
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December 2007 Archives
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.70 and then at 77.85. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.48 and then at this week's low of 77.29. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading, on a short-covering bounce. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.4323 and then more stops just below support at 1.4300. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4422 and then at 1.4450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4491. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly higher in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $800.00 and then at $795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at this week's high of $811.40 and then just above resistance at $815.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.00 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of $89.15. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, with wheat lower and corn and beans modestly higher. The bulls appear to be losing a bit of steam at higher price levels. Heading into the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see some profits taken off the table by the bulls who have big winning positions. But, "the trend is your friend" in trading markets, and the trends in the grains are solidly up, at present.
Friday, December 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
U.S. Treasuries have made a solid recovery from their recent lows. It's my bias that T-Bonds and T-Notes still have more upside in the coming weeks, including notching fresh contract highs during that timeframe. It's also my bias that the U.S. dollar has more upside, and that crude oil has more downside price potential in the coming weeks.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy. Look for quieter, trendless trading activity as the year winds down and as the holidays approach.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,471.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,457.70. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,488.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,491.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,469.15
1st Support:------ 1,463.30
2nd Support:------ 1,451.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,480.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,486.45
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,099.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,080.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,125.00 and then at 2,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,097.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,084.60
1st Support:------ 2,069.20
2nd Support:------ 2,039.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,113.90
2nd Resistance:--- 2,129.35
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 13,235 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,180. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 13,384 and then just above resistance at 13,425. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,550
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,316
1st Support:------ 13,269
2nd Support:------ 13,188
1st Resistance:--- 13,397
2nd Resistance:--- 13,444
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 116 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 27/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 16/32
1st Support:----- 115 30/32
2nd Support:----- 115 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 15/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.12.0 and then just above resistance at 113.22.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.04.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.01.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.16.0
1st Support:------ 113.04.0
2nd Support:------ 112.27.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.05.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, and hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.88 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.65 and then at this week's low of 77.29. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh two-month low overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4300 and then more stops just below support at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4400 and then at 1.4450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4221. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $800.00 and then at $795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $807.60 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $811.40. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.50 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week's low of $91.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $90.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, with wheat lower and corn and beans slightly higher. Traders will closely scrutinize today's USDA weekly export sales report. The bulls appear to be getting tired at higher price levels. Remember that these markets are very mature bull markets and are ripe for at least a significant downside "correction" soon. Heading into the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see some profits taken off the table by the bulls who have big winning positions.
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, and hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.88 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.65 and then at this week's low of 77.29. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh two-month low overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4300 and then more stops just below support at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4400 and then at 1.4450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4221. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $800.00 and then at $795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $807.60 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $811.40. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.50 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week's low of $91.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $90.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, with wheat lower and corn and beans slightly higher. Traders will closely scrutinize today's USDA weekly export sales report. The bulls appear to be getting tired at higher price levels. Remember that these markets are very mature bull markets and are ripe for at least a significant downside "correction" soon. Heading into the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see some profits taken off the table by the bulls who have big winning positions.
Thursday, December 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. Treasury prices and a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar continues to recover against the other major currencies, as the U.S. dollar index hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Crude oil and gold bulls are uneasy as the greenback continues its climb. If the dollar does continue to strengthen then it's very likely that market tops are in place in gold and crude oil.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. Look for quieter, trendless trading activity as the year winds down and as the holidays approach.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,461.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,456.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,477.90 and then at 1,485.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,477.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,465.50
1st Support:------ 1,455.50
2nd Support:------ 1,446.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,474.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,474.70
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,055.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 2,038.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,057.00 and then at this week's high of 2,095.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,071.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,052.40
1st Support:------ 2,042.85
2nd Support:------ 2,028.40
1st Resistance:--- 2,066.85
2nd Resistance:--- 2,076.40
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,230 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,180. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 13,384 and then just above resistance at 13,425. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,230
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,304
1st Support:------ 13,224
2nd Support:------ 13,150
1st Resistance:--- 13,378
2nd Resistance:--- 13,458
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher again in early trading. Bulls are making a solid rebound from last week's lows and do have fresh upside technical momentum on their side.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 116 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 16/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 3/32
1st Support:----- 114 14/32
2nd Support:----- 114 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 23/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.17.0 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 113.22.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.05.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.07.0
1st Support:------ 112.24.0
2nd Support:------ 112.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.13.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 77.57 and then at 77.75. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 77.29 and then at 77.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4386 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 1.4342. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at this week's high of 1.4465 and then at 1.4500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4221. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $800.00 and then at $795.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $808.40 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $811.40. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $91.00 and then just above resistance at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week's low of $89.15, and then more sell stops just below support at $88.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $91.85. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, with wheat solidly higher. However, the bulls now appear to be getting tired at higher price levels. Remember that these markets are very mature bull markets and are ripe for at least a significant downside "correction" soon. Heading into the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see some profits taken off the table by the bulls who have big winning positions.
Wednesday, December 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures prices and a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Successful veteran and professional traders will tell you that the key to success in trading futures and FOREX markets is money management. Traders who have traded for any length of time know that more losses are absorbed than winners. That's why money management is so paramount. I made a "Top 10" list of money management rules a while back. If you'd like to see it, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and email it back to you. Also, when you email me, tell me where you live.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Look for quieter, trendless trading activity as the year winds down and the holidays approach.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,456.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,446.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,472.00 and then at this week's high of 1,477.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,462.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,461.50
1st Support:------ 1,451.00
2nd Support:------ 1,435.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,477.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,487.50
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 2,022.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the October low of 2,009.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,055.25 and then at Tuesday's high of 2,067.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,071.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,046.60
1st Support:------ 2,025.70
2nd Support:------ 2,001.10
1st Resistance:--- 2,071.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,092.10
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 13,180 and then more stops just below support at 13,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 13,370 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 13,398. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,361
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,293
1st Support:------ 13,215
2nd Support:------ 13,103
1st Resistance:--- 13,405
2nd Resistance:--- 13,483
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading. Bulls are making a solid rebound from last week's lows and do have fresh upside technical momentum on their side.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 116 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 15/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 5/32
1st Support:----- 114 22/32
2nd Support:----- 113 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 11/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.06.0 and then just above resistance at 113.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 112.23.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.23.0
1st Support:------ 112.13.0
2nd Support:------ 112.00.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.04.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.14.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum recently. Prices hit another fresh seven-week high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.57 and then at 77.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.29 and then at 77.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4379 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 1.4342. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Monday's high of 1.4465 and then at 1.4500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4221. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $800.00 and then at the overnight low of $794.70. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $810.00 and then just above resistance at $815.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.50 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $91.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $90.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.21. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. Corn, beans and wheat are all in bullish technical postures. However, the bulls now appear to be getting tired at higher price levels. Remember that these markets are very mature bull markets and are ripe for at least a significant downside "correction" soon. Heading into the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see some profits taken off the table by the bulls who have big winning positions.
Tuesday, December 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures prices and firmer crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Treasury market bulls and bears now have a technical "line drawn in the sand"--last week's lows. If last week's lows are taken out on the downside, then serious near-term chart damage would be inflicted to suggest a market top is in place and that prices will continue to trend lower.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading, on a short-covering bounce. Look for quieter trading activity as the year winds down and the holidays approach.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 1,455.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,447.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,477.90 and then at 1,488.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,477.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,463.30
1st Support:------ 1,448.65
2nd Support:------ 1,440.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,471.45
2nd Resistance:--- 1,486.10
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 2,043.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,025.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,075.00 and then at Monday's high of 2,095.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,071.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,062.50
1st Support:------ 2,030.00
2nd Support:------ 2,010.50
1st Resistance:--- 2,082.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,114.50
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 13,250 and then more stops just below support at 13,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 13,398 and then just above resistance at 13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,361
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,306
1st Support:------ 13,213
2nd Support:------ 13,158
1st Resistance:--- 13,361
2nd Resistance:--- 13,454
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading. Short covering is featured again today and the bulls are still in some trouble and need to strongly defend last week's lows.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 115 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 114 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 24/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 7/32
1st Support:----- 113 28/32
2nd Support:----- 113 10/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 4/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.24.0 and then just above resistance at 113.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 112.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 112.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.24.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.01.0
1st Support:------ 111.22.0
2nd Support:------ 111.14.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.09.0
2nd Resistance:--- 112.20.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum recently. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.78 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.31 and then at 77.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.18 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4324 and then more stops just below support at 1.4300. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4465 and then at 1.4500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4221. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $789.60 and then at $783.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $800.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $803.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $809.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.00 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $89.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.97. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Corn, beans and wheat are all in extremely bullish technical postures. Even weaker "outside markets" gold and crude oil early today, and a firmer U.S. dollar, did not have much of a bearish impact on the grains. But these markets are very mature bull markets and are ripe for at least a significant downside "correction" soon. Heading into the end of the year, it would not surprise me to see some profits taken off the table by the bulls who have big winning positions.
Monday, December 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index futures prices and a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index hit a fresh seven-week high overnight, following the posting of a bullish weekly high close on Friday. The U.S. dollar bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum on their side, amid very early clues that the greenback's downtrend may have ended.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are fading.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,460.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,450.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,477.90 and then at 1,488.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,477.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,487.10
1st Support:------ 1,469.30
2nd Support:------ 1,460.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,496.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,514.00
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,076.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,060.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,095.00 and then at 2,112.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,071.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,102.60
1st Support:------ 2,083.20
2nd Support:------ 2,072.60
1st Resistance:--- 2,113.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,132.60
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at last week's low of 13,410 and then more stops just below support at this month's low of 13,335. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,500 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 13,591. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,361
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,485
1st Support:------ 13,380
2nd Support:------ 13,319
1st Resistance:--- 13,546
2nd Resistance:--- 13,651
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading. Short covering is featured today and the bulls are still in trouble as fresh downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts for bonds and notes.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 114 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week's low of 113 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:115 24/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 30/32
1st Support:----- 113 14/32
2nd Support:----- 113 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 26/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.10.0 and then just above resistance at 112.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 111.23.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 111.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.24.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.01.0
1st Support:------ 111.22.0
2nd Support:------ 111.14.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.09.0
2nd Resistance:--- 112.20.0
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $794.20 and then at $790.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $800.00 and then just above resistance at $805.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $780.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum late this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.20 and then at last week’s high of 77.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.00 and then at 76.81. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.37 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The March Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight and bulls are fading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4492 and then more stops just below support at 1.4450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4550 and then at 1.4600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4474. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $94.85 and then just above resistance at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $91.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $91.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. The bull markets in grains roll on. Corn, beans and wheat are all still in a bullish technical posture, amid no early clues of a market top being close at hand. But the risk in the grain futures right now is more for a bigger corrective pullback than for bigger gains, in my opinion. Grain traders will continue to keep one eye on the “outside markets” heading into the end of the year.
Friday, December 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies and lower gold prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The gold and the crude oil markets—two of the three key “axis” markets that I’ve talked about recently (the other being the U.S. dollar) are showing very early technical signals of breaking down and losing uptrend strength. A real strong up day in the U.S. dollar on Friday would then also put the greenback in a very early stage of possibly putting in a near-term and possibly a longer-term low.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls this week have lost near-term technical momentum.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 1,479.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,472.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,504.90 and then at 1,520.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,463.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,493.25
1st Support:------ 1,485.30
2nd Support:------ 1,472.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,506.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,514.45
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 2,095.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,075.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 2,121.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 2,154.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,074.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,110.00
1st Support:------ 2,099.00
2nd Support:------ 2,084.00
1st Resistance:--- 2,125.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,136.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 13,445 and then more stops just below support at this week’s low of 13,410. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 13,615 and then just above resistance at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,363
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,553
1st Support:------ 13,490
2nd Support:------ 13,383
1st Resistance:--- 13,660
2nd Resistance:--- 13,723
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower again in early trading. Bulls have faded badly as near-term chart damage has been inflicted this week.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 114 29/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:113 21/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 26/32
1st Support:----- 113 24/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 21/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 112.16.0 and then just above resistance at 112.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 112.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 111.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 111.28.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.24.0
1st Support:------ 112.10.0
2nd Support:------ 111.21.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.13.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.27.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading
today. Bulls are still technically weak. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this
week’s high of 76.43 and then at last week’s high of
76.81. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of
75.92 and then at 75.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 75.75 Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at this week’s low
of 1.4651 and then more stops just below support at
1.4600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at this week’s high of 1.4763 and then at 1.4786.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4768.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is trading modestly lower in early dealings today.
For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen
at $809.00 and then at $805.00. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $819.0 and then
just above resistance at this week’s high of $822.80.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$814.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum. In
January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $95.00 and then just above resistance at
$96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $93.00, and then more sell stops just below support at
$92.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $92.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Traders will
scrutinize today’s USDA weekly export sales report, which
is likely to be bullish. Corn, beans and wheat are all
still in a bullish technical posture, amid no early clues
of a market top being close at hand. But the risk in the
grain futures right now is more for a bigger corrective
pullback than for bigger gains, in my opinion. Grain
traders will continue to keep one eye on the “outside
markets” heading into the end of the year.
Thursday, December 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in quieter overnight/early morning
trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The past two days’ price action in the U.S. stock indexes
has been a strong warning signal that the stock market
will not sustain an uptrend and trading will be choppy
for at least the near term—and possibly trend sideways to
lower. More strong downside pressure this week would be a
stronger signal for the possibility of a sustained
downtrend in the coming weeks. U.S. Treasuries will
continue to trade in an inverse relationship to the U.S.
stock indexes. My bias is more bearish toward the stock
indexes and more bullish toward U.S. Treasuries.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic
trading. Bulls have lost near-term technical momentum.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is
turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of
1,479.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level.
More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,472.50. Upside resistance for
active traders today is located at 1,510.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 1,525.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1,477.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,501.50
1st Support:------ 1,478.00
2nd Support:------ 1,455.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,524.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,547.50
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning
down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term technical support is located at
Wednesday's low of 2,099.50. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at 2,075.50.
On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,125.00
and then at Wednesday’s high of 2,154.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
2,074.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,127.50
1st Support:------ 2,101.00
2nd Support:------ 2,073.00
1st Resistance:--- 2,155.50
2nd Resistance:--- 2,182.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at
13,500 and then more stops just below support at
Wednesday’s low of 13,410. Buy stops likely reside just
above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,600 and
then just above resistance at 13,700. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is
turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-
day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
13,363
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,595
1st Support:------ 13,399
2nd Support:------ 13,215
1st Resistance:--- 13,779
2nd Resistance:--- 13,975
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in
early trading. Bulls have faded and need to show more
power soon. But any weakness in the stock market will
support the Treasury bulls.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 29/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 116
even. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 8/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell
stops are likely located below support at even. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:114 26/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 19/32
1st Support:----- 114 18/32
2nd Support:----- 113 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 23/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely
reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 113.05.5 and then just above
resistance at 113.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average, but is turning down. Sell stop orders are
likely located just below support at 112.12.0 and then
more sell stops just below support at 112.00.0. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
111.28.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.28.0
1st Support:------ 112.02.0
2nd Support:------ 111.04.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.20.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $809.00 and then at $805.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $819.30 and then just above resistance at $822.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $814.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $91.00 and then just above resistance at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $88.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $91.05. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were near steady to lower in overnight trading. Not much new. Corn, beans and wheat are all still in a bullish technical posture. But bulls need to remember that the grains are in very mature bull markets, and prices are at or near levels that have historically produced market tops. The risk in the grain futures right now is more for a bigger corrective pullback than for bigger gains, in my opinion. Grain traders will continue to keep one eye on the “outside markets” heading into the end of the year.
Wednesday, December 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a modest rebound in the U.S. stock indexes, following Tuesday’s strong losses, and crude oil prices that have pushed back above $90.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Tuesday’s price action in the U.S. stock indexes was a strong warning signal that the stock market will not sustain an uptrend and trading will be choppy for at least the near term. More strong downside pressure today would signal the possibility of a sustained downtrend in the coming weeks. Meantime, the Treasury market bulls on Tuesday got that much-needed solid boost of power that keeps them with the firm technical advantage--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are modestly higher in early morning electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from big losses on Tuesday. Bulls have suddenly lost near-term technical momentum.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 1,488.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,480.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,505.00 and then at 1,520.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,477.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,503.80
1st Support:------ 1,471.10
2nd Support:------ 1,453.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,521.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,553.80
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 2,107.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,090.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,125.00 and then at 2,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,092.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,130.60
1st Support:------ 2,088.20
2nd Support:------ 2,065.10
1st Resistance:--- 2,153.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,196.10
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 13,530 and then more stops just below support at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,600 and then just above resistance at 13,700. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,495
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,649
1st Support:------ 13,414
2nd Support:------ 13,294
1st Resistance:--- 13,769
2nd Resistance:--- 14,004
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading. Prices are giving back about half of Tuesday’s big gains. Bulls had faded badly and needed to show more power soon, and did just that on Tuesday.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 116 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 9/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 1/32
1st Support:----- 115 7/32
2nd Support:----- 113 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 6/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 113.08.0 and then just above resistance at 113.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.28.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 112.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.10.0
1st Support:------ 112.23.0
2nd Support:------ 111.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.30.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls are fading again and need to show fresh power to keep what little near-term technical momentum they gained last week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 76.34 and then at Friday’s high of 76.54. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.03 and then at 75.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.75 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Monday’s low of 1.4654 and then more stops just below support at 1.4600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4763 and then at 1.4786. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4768. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading slightly lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $809.00 and then at $805.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $816.30 and then just above resistance at Monday’s high of $818.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $814.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then just above resistance at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00, and then more sell stops just below support at last week’s low of $85.82. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.91. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were near steady to firmer in overnight trading. Corn, beans and wheat are all still in a bullish technical posture. But bulls need to remember that the grains are in very mature bull markets, and prices are at or near levels that have historically produced market tops. The risk in the grain futures right now is more for a bigger corrective pullback than for bigger gains, in my opinion. Grain traders will continue to keep one eye on the “outside markets” heading into the end of the year.
Tuesday, December 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real market feature in overnight/early morning trading today. Markets are awaiting this afternoon’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting results. Look for more active trading in the stock, financial and currency markets, in the wake of the 1:15 p.m. central time announcement.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
One neat thing about being in one industry my entire career is learning all the nuances and sayings regarding markets and trading. One of the more accurate sayings is, “Buy the rumor, sell the fact” in trading markets. It will be interesting today to see if the stock market sells off on perceived bullish wording coming out of today’s Fed meeting. Stock index traders have been expecting the Fed’s wording to be more bullish than bearish, as evidenced by the recent rally in prices.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 1,517.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,500.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,530.40 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,528.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,525.70
1st Support:------ 1,520.90
2nd Support:------ 1,512.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,533.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,538.70
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 2,155.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,130.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 2,165.00 and then at 2,180.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,174.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,160.00
1st Support:------ 2,155.00
2nd Support:------ 2,150.00
1st Resistance:--- 2,165.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,170.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 13,780 and then more stops just below support at 13,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 13,855 and then just above resistance at 13,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,768
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,823
1st Support:------ 13,790
2nd Support:------ 13,748
1st Resistance:--- 13,865
2nd Resistance:--- 13,898
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading. Bulls have faded badly and need to show more power soon. Bulls are hoping for a positive FOMC meeting outcome for the Treasuries.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 115 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Monday’s low of 114 12/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 11/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115
1st Support:----- 114 5/32
2nd Support:----- 113 16/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 1632
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 112.24.0 and then just above resistance at Monday’s high of 112.31.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.09.0 and then more sell stops just below support at Monday’s low of 112.05.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112 |
