Name: Jim Wyckoff 
U.S. Treasuries Bulls Regain Power
Thursday, December 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. Treasury prices and a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar continues to recover against the other major currencies, as the U.S. dollar index hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Crude oil and gold bulls are uneasy as the greenback continues its climb. If the dollar does continue to strengthen then it's very likely that market tops are in place in gold and crude oil.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. Look for quieter, trendless trading activity as the year winds down and as the holidays approach.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,461.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,456.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,477.90 and then at 1,485.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,477.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,465.50
1st Support:------ 1,455.50
2nd Support:------ 1,446.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,474.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,474.70
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,055.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 2,038.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,057.00 and then at this week's high of 2,095.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,071.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,052.40
1st Support:------ 2,042.85
2nd Support:------ 2,028.40
1st Resistance:--- 2,066.85
2nd Resistance:--- 2,076.40
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 13,230 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 13,180. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 13,384 and then just above resistance at 13,425. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,230
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,304
1st Support:------ 13,224
2nd Support:------ 13,150
1st Resistance:--- 13,378
2nd Resistance:--- 13,458
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher again in early trading. Bulls are making a solid rebound from last week's lows and do have fresh upside technical momentum on their side.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 116 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:116 16/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 3/32
1st Support:----- 114 14/32
2nd Support:----- 114 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 23/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.17.0 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 113.22.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.05.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.07.0
1st Support:------ 112.24.0
2nd Support:------ 112.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.13.0
