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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
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January 2008 Archives
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.40 and then at 75.70. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 75.14 and then at 75.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.93 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The March Euro is weaker in early electronic trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have near-term technical power. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4700 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4896 and then at 1.4950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4700. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is near higher in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $925.00 and then at $920.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the contract and all-time high of $942.20 and then just above resistance at $950.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $909.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $91.79 and then just above resistance at $92.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.80, and then more sell stops just below support at $90.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.90. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was firmer and corn and soybeans were weaker. Today's weekly USDA export sales report will be closely scrutinized by traders. A key for all grain futures traders for the near term is to keep a close eye on the Minneapolis spring wheat futures market. This smaller market has led the wheat futures higher recently, and wheat has led the grains recently. Any significant weakening in the Minneapolis wheat futures market could well have a domino effect in the grains. Grain traders will also continue to look to the key "outside markets" gold and crude oil for direction.
Thursday, January 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index futures prices and solidly higher U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is an extra important trading day for the markets. It's the last trading day of the month. Monthly high or low closes are key technical developments. Traders also do position squaring at the end of the month, which can add to trading volume and volatility.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. The stock index bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,333.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,320.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday's high of 1,354.80 and then at 1,370.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,337.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,362.05
1st Support:------ 1,336.60
2nd Support:------ 1,322.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,376.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,401.55
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,784.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,763.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,807.50 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,784.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,819.60
1st Support:------ 1,789.20
2nd Support:------ 1,766.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,841.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,873.30
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,400 and then just above resistance at 12,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,257
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,477
1st Support:------ 12,277
2nd Support:------ 12,161
1st Resistance:--- 12,593
2nd Resistance:--- 12,793
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls are making a good rebound from losses Wednesday. The next two trading days will be extra important for the Treasuries markets. The price trend to end this week could well be the price trend that will be in place in the coming weeks.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 119 25/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 119 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 24/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 27/32
1st Support:----- 117 29/32
2nd Support:----- 116 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 27/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 25/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.08.0 and then just above resistance at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.16.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.12.0
1st Support:------ 115.31.0
2nd Support:------ 115.11.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.00.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.13.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. A U.S. interest rate cut today is going to be dollar-bearish. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.70 and then at 76.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.44 and then at this month's low of 75.27. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.93 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4738 and then more stops just below support at 1.4700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4802 and then at 1.4850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4700. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $925.00 and then at $920.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the contract and all-time high of $939.00 and then just above resistance at $945.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $907.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $93.00 and then just above resistance at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $91.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.90. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. A key for all grain futures traders for the near term is to keep a close eye on the Minneapolis spring wheat futures market. This smaller market has led the wheat futures higher recently, and wheat has led the grains recently. Any significant weakening in the Minneapolis wheat futures market could well have a domino effect in the grains. Grain traders will also continue to look to the key "outside markets" gold and crude oil for direction.
Wednesday, January 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today, as traders are keenly awaiting Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision, in which the Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Look for more tepid markets this morning, as traders await the FOCM decision due out around 1:15 p.m. CST today. Then look for very busy activity in many markets. My bias is still that the U.S. stock market will not benefit from today's Fed action. Solid rallies in the stock indexes still appear to be selling opportunities for the smart money.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. The stock index bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,350.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,335.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,366.70 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,369.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,359.80
1st Support:------ 1,352.90
2nd Support:------ 1,343.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,369.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,375.90
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,763.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,825.00 and then at 1,838.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,848.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,811.50
1st Support:------ 1,798.00
2nd Support:------ 1,784.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,825.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,839.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,350 and then more stops just below support at 12,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,633
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,440
1st Support:------ 12,381
2nd Support:------ 12,290
1st Resistance:--- 12,531
2nd Resistance:--- 12,590
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in the bonds and notes recently. My bias is that there is still more room on the upside in Treasuries. However, Treasuries will likely continue to trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 119 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 118 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:120 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 12/32
1st Support:----- 118 19/32
2nd Support:----- 118 even
1st Resistance:-- 119 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 24/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.26.0 and then just above resistance at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.08.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.30.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.20.0
1st Support:------ 116.02.0
2nd Support:------ 115.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.00.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.18.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading. Limit gains across the board in wheat futures Monday are fueling all the grain markets early this week. Here's a key factor for all grain traders for the near term: Keep a close eye on the Minneapolis spring wheat futures market. This smaller market has led the wheat futures higher recently, and wheat has led the grains recently. Any significant weakening in the Minneapolis wheat futures market could well have a domino effect in the grains. Grain traders will also continue to look to the key "outside markets" gold and crude oil for direction.
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is steady-weak in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.00 and then at 76.20. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.50 and then at this month's low of 75.27. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.93 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The March Euro is steady-firm in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4700 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 1.4643. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at this week's high of 1.4781 and then at 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4700. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today and set an all-time high of $939.00 overnight. For April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $926.80 and then at $920.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight contract and all-time high of $939.00 and then just above resistance at $945.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $907.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.00 and then just above resistance at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $89.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.90. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Tuesday, January 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock indexes and weaker U.S. Treasury prices. Commodity futures prices are also firmer today. Traders are keenly awaiting Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision, in which the Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock indexes on Monday saw a short-covering bounce in a bear market. That may be the case again today. However, the stock index bulls are still in serious technical trouble. It would not surprise me to see the stock indexes sell off immediately following Wednesday afternoon's interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on short covering. The stock index bulls are still on shaky technical ground.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,350.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,335.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,370.50 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,347.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,341.40
1st Support:------ 1,324.75
2nd Support:------ 1,294.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,371.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,387.90
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,800.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,775.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,825.00 and then at 1,838.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,848.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,796.50
1st Support:------ 1,777.00
2nd Support:------ 1,743.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,829.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,849.25
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,400
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,297
1st Support:------ 12,200
2nd Support:------ 12,022
1st Resistance:--- 12,475
2nd Resistance:--- 12,572
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Treasuries will likely continue to trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 4/32 and then at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 119 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:120 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 30/32
1st Support:----- 119 22/32
2nd Support:----- 119 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 6/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 14/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.00.0 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 117.04.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.30.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.31.0
1st Support:------ 116.26.0
2nd Support:------ 116.19.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.11.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.21 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.50 and then at this month's low of 75.27. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.93 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4700 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.4643. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at last week's high of 1.4763 and then at 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4700. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, and near the all-time high scored last week. For April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $917.00 and then at $910.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the all-time high of $929.70 and then just above resistance at $935.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $902.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $90.00 and then just above resistance at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $88.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.88. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were lower and wheat was higher. Grain traders will continue to look to the key "outside markets" gold and crude oil for direction. However, my bias is that crude oil is the more important market for grain traders to monitor, and crude prices have been trending lower this month.
Monday, January 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock indexes and higher U.S. Treasury prices. Traders are keenly awaiting this week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, in which the Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil prices are lower early today and have dropped below $90.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices have been trending lower to start the new year, and this should be a warning to all raw commodity market bulls. Sustained weakness in crude oil prices will find most raw commodity futures markets struggling to keep recent price uptrends.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Friday's weaker closes suggest the stock index bulls are still on shaky ground.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,311.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,300.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,336.80 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,347.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,344.40
1st Support:------ 1,318.25
2nd Support:------ 1,302.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,360.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,386.40
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,763.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,745.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at 1,838.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,812.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,819.20
1st Support:------ 1,765.35
2nd Support:------ 1,737.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,847.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,901.20
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,100 and then more stops just below support at 12,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,300 and then just above resistance at 12,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,288
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,307
1st Support:------ 12,124
2nd Support:------ 12,012
1st Resistance:--- 12,419
2nd Resistance:--- 12,602
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Treasury bulls have regained some fresh near-term technical momentum, and Treasuries will likely continue to trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 16/32 and then at 121 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 119 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:120 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 13/32
1st Support:----- 118 21/32
2nd Support:----- 117 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 12/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.16.0 and then just above resistance at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.30.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.14.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.22.0
1st Support:------ 116.04.0
2nd Support:------ 115.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 118.06.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh all-time high overnight, at $929.70, basis April futures. For April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $913.80 and then at $900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight all-time high of $929.70 and then just above resistance at $935.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $902.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 76.26 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday's low of 75.87 and then at 75.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.58 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4681 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the Thursday's high of 1.4763 and then at 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4704. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $91.00 and then just above resistance at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $88.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.88. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher again in overnight trading, following higher "outside markets" including a record high in gold overnight. Bullish weekly high closes today would repair the recent near-term chart damage that was inflicted in the grains. Traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales report.
Friday, January 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes and sharply higher gold futures prices, which hit a fresh all-time high above $925.00 an ounce overnight.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The big rebound in commodity futures markets the past few days has been impressive. A look at the daily chart for the Continuous Commodity Index, which is a basket of major raw commodity prices rolled into one composite index price, shows no serious technical damage occurred to the CCI during the recent sell off. Strongly higher closes in the commodities today would be another bullish technical clue to suggest this most recent downturn was just a correction in an ongoing bull market run in commodities.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher again in early morning electronic trading, on more of a corrective bounce from recent strong losses. Weekly high closes today in the stock indexes would be technically bullish and would give the bulls some confidence that near-term lows are in place.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,354.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,333.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,366.80 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,369.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,347.60
1st Support:------ 1,338.20
2nd Support:------ 1,324.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,361.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,371.10
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,844.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 1,799.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,875.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,875.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,824.50
1st Support:------ 1,811.50
2nd Support:------ 1,786.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,850.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,863.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,350 and then more stops just below support at Thursday's low of 12,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,462
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,338
1st Support:------ 12,277
2nd Support:------ 12,188
1st Resistance:--- 12,427
2nd Resistance:--- 12,488
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today, on a strong corrective pullback from recent gains and amid a rebound in the stock market. Treasury bulls are fading and bearish weekly low closes today would be a hint of a near-term market top being in place.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 27/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday's low of 118 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 118 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:118 2/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 12/32
1st Support:----- 117 30/32
2nd Support:----- 117 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 18/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.13.5 and then just above resistance at 116.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.30.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.28.0
1st Support:------ 116.00.0
2nd Support:------ 115.17.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 118.07.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.50 and then at the overnight high of 76.68. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.15 and then at 76.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.90 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4600 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.4571. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4670 and then at 1.4700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4704. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today, amid the weaker U.S. dollar. For April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $900.00 and then at the overnight low of $894.80. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $909.00 and then just above resistance at the contract and all-time high of $922.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today, on short covering. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then just above resistance at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $87.48, and then more sell stops just below support at $87.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $88.75. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on corrective bounces from strong to limit-down losses on Wednesday. Higher "outside markets" are also supportive for the grains today. However, near-term chart damage was inflicted in the grains on Wednesday. The U.S. recession fears are still bearish for the grains, due to perceived less demand. Also, the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon appears to be occurring now.
Thursday, January 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly lower U.S. Treasury prices, amid a rebound in the stock indexes, and solid rebounds in many raw commodity futures prices, after recent strong selling pressure.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The recent higher volatility in many futures markets makes purchasing options on those markets more appealing. Reason: Purchasing options allows a trader to participate in highly volatile markets, yet the trader's risk is limited to the price paid for the option. In highly volatile markets, I like to seek out the options with not much time value left, figuring that with high price volatility, a bigger price move in the market can occur in a short period of time--like we've seen in many futures markets recently. I wrote a feature story on options a while back. I'd by happy to email it to you if you email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com .--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from recent strong losses. However, the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,333.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,316.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,354.00 and then at 1,368.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,345.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,315.35
1st Support:------ 1,286.70
2nd Support:------ 1,231.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,370.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,398.85
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,800.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,775.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,827.50 and then at 1,858.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,839.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,772.85
1st Support:------ 1,732.70
2nd Support:------ 1,657.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,847.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,887.85
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,250 and then more stops just below support at 12,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 12,300 and then just above resistance at 12,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,297
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,076
1st Support:------ 11,853
2nd Support:------ 11,433
1st Resistance:--- 12,496
2nd Resistance:--- 12,719
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are sharply lower in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains and amid a rebound in the stock market. Treasury bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. My bias is that dips in prices are still buying opportunities for the bulls.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 120 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 120 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Wednesday's low of 119 10/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:120 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 120 28/32
1st Support:----- 118 28/32
2nd Support:----- 117 27/32
1st Resistance:-- 121 29/32
2nd Resistance:-- 123 29/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.16.0 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.26.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.16.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 117.24.0
1st Support:------ 116.10.0
2nd Support:------ 115.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 118.14.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.28.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.00 and then at 77.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.45 and then at 76.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.90 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4521 and then more stops just below support at 1.4450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4600 and then at the overnight high of 1.4654. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4632. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $880.00 and then at $875.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $890.00 and then just above resistance at $895.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $891.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then just above resistance at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $88.75. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, but I suspect the grains will open up under selling pressure today. Grain market bears have gained downside technical momentum. The U.S. recession fears are bearish for the grains, due to perceived less demand. Also, the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon appears to be occurring now.
Wednesday, January 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is more sharp losses in U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
With the world stock markets on very shaky ground, the raw commodity futures market bulls need to beware. Slowing world economic growth, led by a U.S. recession, means less demand for raw commodities. Price action the rest of this week in gold and crude oil will be extra important.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are sharply lower early morning electronic trading. The bears are still in firm technical command.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,283.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,270.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,300.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,318.40. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 1.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,325.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,298.75
1st Support:------ 1,265.90
2nd Support:------ 1,222.45
1st Resistance:--- 1,342.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,375.05
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,744.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,725.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,775.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,830.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,801.10
1st Support:------ 1,744.40
2nd Support:------ 1,687.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,857.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,914.35
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,750 and then more stops just below support at 11,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,900 and then just above resistance at 12,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,050
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,849
1st Support:------ 11,558
2nd Support:------ 11,165
1st Resistance:--- 12,242
2nd Resistance:--- 12,533
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are sharply higher and have hit fresh contract highs overnight on still more "flight-to-quality" buying of U.S. debt amid the global stock market turmoil. Treasury bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Dips in prices are still viewed as buying opportunities by the bulls.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 122 6/32 and then at 122 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 121 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 121 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:120 10/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 120 22/32
1st Support:----- 119 27/32
2nd Support:----- 118 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 121 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 122 23/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 118.25.5 and then just above resistance at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 118.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 9.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.19.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 117.28.0
1st Support:------ 117.06.0
2nd Support:------ 116.13.0
1st Resistance:--- 118.21.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.11.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today, after hitting a fresh four-week high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.50 and then at the December high of 77.88. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.87 and then at 76.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.67 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4400 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.4355. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4601 and then at 1.4650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4571. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is sharply lower in early dealings today, and hit a fresh three-week low overnight. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $849.50 and then at $840.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $870.00 and then just above resistance at $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $853.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then just above resistance at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00, and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $85.42. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $90.93. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
Prices were sharply lower in overnight trading. Look for strong selling pressure today and I would be surprised if the bulls came in strongly to buy dips. Grain market bears have quickly gained downside technical momentum. The U.S. recession fears are bearish for the grains, due to perceived less demand. Also, the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon appears to be occurring now.
Tuesday, January 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a steep sell off in world stock markets that will spill over into very sharp losses today, including what many are calling panic selling. The Dow stock index looks to open trading 400 to 500 points lower.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock market is reacting to the specter of U.S. economic recession. Today's and upcoming price action will likely produce the "blood on the Street" price action that does put in market bottoms and that produces good bargain-hunting buying opportunities in selected individual stocks. The U.S. Treasury markets appear to still be the best investment in town.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are sharply lower early morning electronic trading amid the meltdown in world stock markets on Monday and again overnight. The bears are still in firm technical command.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,240.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,270.00 and then at 1,280.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 1.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,353.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500: (Based on overnight trading range.)
Pivot:------------ 1,281.30
1st Support:------ 1,231.00
2nd Support:------ 1,205.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,307.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,357.60
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight contract low of 1,744.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,725.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,842.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ: (Based on overnight trading range.)
Pivot:------------ 1,790.40
1st Support:------ 1,723.10
2nd Support:------ 1,677.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,836.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,903.70
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,750 and then just above resistance at 12,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,417
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,175
1st Support:------ 11,982
2nd Support:------ 11,858
1st Resistance:--- 12,299
2nd Resistance:--- 12,492
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are sharply higher and have hit fresh contract highs overnight on "flight-to-quality" buying of U.S. debt amid a global stock market meltdown. Treasury bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Dips in prices are still viewed as buying opportunities by the bulls.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 121 18/32 and then at 122 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 120 7/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 9.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:118 26/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 23/32
1st Support:----- 119 9/32
2nd Support:----- 118 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 15/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 118.16.5 and then just above resistance at 118.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 117.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 9.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.02.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.19.0
1st Support:------ 116.11.0
2nd Support:------ 116.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.05.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 76.61 and then at 77.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.00 and then at 75.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.57 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4600 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 1.4581. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4700 and then at 1.4750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4547. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading firmer in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at $880.00 and then at $875.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $890.00 and then just above resistance at $895.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $893.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.00 and then just above resistance at $92.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00, and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of $89.26. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $92.89. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Bulls are fading and do not want to see bearish weekly low closes. The grain market bulls do still have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key "outside markets" crude oil and gold, and the value of the U.S. dollar. Higher price volatility--both on the upside and downside--at higher price levels is an early warning signal of a topping process.
Friday, January 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in the U.S. stock index futures. However, the stock market bulls are still in technical and fundamental trouble. Rallies will be seen as selling opportunities in the stock indexes for at least the near term.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Weekly low closes in markets are technically bearish. Weekly low closes in any of the grains, energies or metals futures markets today would be extra bearish, given this week's more volatile price action.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading, on short covering in bear markets. The bears are still in firm technical command.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,340.90. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,334.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,370.00 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,375.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,354.45
1st Support:------ 1,319.80
2nd Support:------ 1,300.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,374.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,409.05
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,860.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's contract low of 1,848.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,880.00 and then at Thursday's high of 1,904.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,903.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,869.50
1st Support:------ 1,834.50
2nd Support:------ 1,813.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,891.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,926.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's contract low of 12,160 and then more stops just below support at 12,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,300 and then just above resistance at 12,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,475
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,309
1st Support:------ 12,067
2nd Support:------ 11,919
1st Resistance:--- 12,457
2nd Resistance:--- 12,699
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Dips in prices are still viewed as buying opportunities by the bulls.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 120 even and then at the overnight high of 120 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 119 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:118 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 23/32
1st Support:----- 119 6/32
2nd Support:----- 118 10/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 4/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.16.0 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 116.26.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.10.0
1st Support:------ 116.00.0
2nd Support:------ 115.13.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.07.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.61 and then at 77.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.00 and then at 75.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.26 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4640 and then more stops just below support at 1.4600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4706 and then at 1.4750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4547. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For February gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $875.20 and then at $870.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at $890.00 and then just above resistance at $895.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $868.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.00 and then just above resistance at $92.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.65, and then more sell stops just below support at $90.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $92.89. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses Wednesday. Traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. That report was bearish last week. The bulls may be getting exhausted at higher price levels. The grain market bulls do still have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to closely monitor the key "outside markets" crude oil and gold, and the value of the U.S. dollar. Higher price volatility--bo |
