Name: Jim Wyckoff 
Stock Indexes Weaker; FOMC Awaited
Wednesday, January 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today, as traders are keenly awaiting Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision, in which the Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Look for more tepid markets this morning, as traders await the FOCM decision due out around 1:15 p.m. CST today. Then look for very busy activity in many markets. My bias is still that the U.S. stock market will not benefit from today's Fed action. Solid rallies in the stock indexes still appear to be selling opportunities for the smart money.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. The stock index bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,350.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,335.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,366.70 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,369.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,359.80
1st Support:------ 1,352.90
2nd Support:------ 1,343.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,369.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,375.90
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,763.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,825.00 and then at 1,838.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,848.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,811.50
1st Support:------ 1,798.00
2nd Support:------ 1,784.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,825.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,839.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,350 and then more stops just below support at 12,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,633
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,440
1st Support:------ 12,381
2nd Support:------ 12,290
1st Resistance:--- 12,531
2nd Resistance:--- 12,590
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in the bonds and notes recently. My bias is that there is still more room on the upside in Treasuries. However, Treasuries will likely continue to trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 119 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 118 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:120 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 12/32
1st Support:----- 118 19/32
2nd Support:----- 118 even
1st Resistance:-- 119 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 24/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.26.0 and then just above resistance at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.08.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.30.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.20.0
1st Support:------ 116.02.0
2nd Support:------ 115.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.00.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.18.0
