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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
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February 2008 Archives
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early trading today. Prices poked to a fresh contract and all-time low overnight. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 74.50 and then at 74.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 74.02 and then at 73.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.12. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading, after hitting a new contract and all-time high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5000 and then more stops just below support at 1.4950. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.5180 and then at 1.5200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5004. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today, and did hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of $978.50 and then at the $985.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $960.00 and then just below support at $950.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $948.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight contract high of $103.05 and then just above resistance at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $101.545, and then more sell stops just below support at $101.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $100.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was weaker, beans higher and wheat lower. The recent higher volatility is symptomatic of very mature bull markets. The volatility in wheat, especially, does suggest a market top is close at hand, or in place.
Friday, February 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is the last trading day of the week and the last trading day of the month. It's an extra important day from a technical standpoint. Also, the last day of the month tends to find fund managers doing some book-squaring. That could add some profit-taking pressure to the markets that have seen big upside moves this week.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are trading lower in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have faded to end the week, and the bears continue to enjoy the overall near-term technical advantage.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,351.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,340.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,378.50 and then at this week's high of 1,391.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,350.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,371.15
1st Support:------ 1,363.80
2nd Support:------ 1,359.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,375.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,383.15
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,780.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the February low of 1,757.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at 1,830.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,785.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,794.20
1st Support:------ 1,793.35
2nd Support:------ 1,792.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,794.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,795.40
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 12,430. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,620 and then just above resistance at 12,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,302
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,599
1st Support:------ 12,577
2nd Support:------ 12,567
1st Resistance:--- 12,609
2nd Resistance:--- 12,631
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum just recently.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 118 8/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 117 3/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 13/32
1st Support:----- 115 23/32
2nd Support:----- 114 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 13/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.00.0 and then just above resistance at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 116.07.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.15.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.19.0
1st Support:------ 115.01.0
2nd Support:------ 114.02.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.18.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.04.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Prices Wednesday hit a fresh contract and all-time low. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 74.85 and then at 75.00. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday's contract low of 74.48 and then at 74.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The June Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5000 and then more stops just below support at 1.4950. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Wednesday's contract high of 1.5086 and then at 1.5100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4946 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of $967.70 and then at the $975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $955.50 and then just below support at $950.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $941.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $101.00 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $102.08. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $99.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $98.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $99.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was steady, beans firmer and wheat lower. Traders will scrutinize today's USDA weekly export sales report. The recent higher volatility is symptomatic of very mature bull markets. The volatility in wheat, especially, does suggest a market top is close at hand, or in place.
Thursday, February 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Most commodity markets have seen very strong rallies the past few weeks, including new all-time highs in the grains, gold and crude oil. It would not surprise me to see a strong corrective price pullback in most of the raw commodity markets in the near term. Markets don't go straight up or straight down, and several commodity markets are short-term overbought, technically.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are trading weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have made some progress recently, but need to show more power soon.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,376.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,367.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,391.00 and then at the February high of 1,401.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,367.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,383.55
1st Support:------ 1,376.40
2nd Support:------ 1,369.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,390.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,397.55
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,789.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of 1,809.75 and then at last week's high of 1,823.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,826.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,808.33
1st Support:------ 1,806.90
2nd Support:------ 1,804.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,811.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,812.60
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,660 and then more stops just below support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 12,740 and then just above resistance at the February high of 12,775. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,620
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,701
1st Support:------ 12,663
2nd Support:------ 12,621
1st Resistance:--- 12,743
2nd Resistance:--- 12,781
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Trading has become choppy.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at this week's high of 115 28/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 115 4/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 4/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 1/32
1st Support:----- 114 18/32
2nd Support:----- 114 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 17/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 even
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.08.0 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.24.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 114.18.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.13.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.25.0
1st Support:------ 114.10.0
2nd Support:------ 114.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.02.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.17.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. Prices hit a new all-time high overnight. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight all-time high of $967.70 and then at the $975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $951.80 and then just below support at $945.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $941.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh contract and all-time low overnight. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.03 and then at 75.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 74.58 and then at 74.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.65. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
The June Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4924 and then more stops just below support at 1.4878. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.5028 and then at 1.5100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4782 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today, and did hit a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight contract high of $102.08 and then just above resistance at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $99.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $99.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
GRAINS
Prices were sharply lower in overnight trading. May Chicago wheat was down $1.35 a bushel. Bulls look like they might struggle today. Key will be if lower price action is viewed by traders as a buying opportunity. If not, the bulls are going to be in trouble. This recent higher volatility is symptomatic of very mature bull markets, but there are still, as of yet, no real strong clues of market tops being in place.
Wednesday, February 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly lower U.S. dollar versus the value of the other major world currencies, and gold futures prices that hit a new all-time high overnight.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar has suffered fresh, serious technical damage this week to suggest another leg down in the greenback in the near term. Remember that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than trends in other markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are trading weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum recently.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,375.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,367.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,391.00 and then at the February high of 1,401.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,394.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,381.40
1st Support:------ 1,371.80
2nd Support:------ 1,357.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,395.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,404.90
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,792.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,772.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,806.25 and then at last week's high of 1,823.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,826.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,801.50
1st Support:------ 1,796.75
2nd Support:------ 1,787.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,811.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,815.75
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,600 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,525. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,715 and then just above resistance at the February high of 12,775. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,620
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,650
1st Support:------ 12,585
2nd Support:------ 12,460
1st Resistance:--- 12,775
2nd Resistance:--- 12,840
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Trading has become choppy.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 18/32 and then at this week's high of 115 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 114 26/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 4/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 27/32
1st Support:----- 114 24/32
2nd Support:----- 114 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 5/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.08.0 and then just above resistance at 115.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.24.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 114.19.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.13.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.15.0
1st Support:------ 114.09.0
2nd Support:------ 113.29.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.01.0
GOLD
Gold is modestly lower in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $942.50 and then at the $945.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $928.90 and then just below support at $925.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $932.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 75.75 and then at Monday's high of 75.85. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.50 and then at the February low of 75.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.06. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4800 and then more stops just below support at 1.4750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.47832 and then at the February high of 1.4865. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4711 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $99.45 and then just above resistance at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $98.59, and then more sell stops just below support at $98.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $96.91. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were sharply lower and wheat was sharply higher. New all-time highs were hit in wheat overnight. This recent higher volatility is symptomatic of very mature bull markets, but there are still, as of yet, no real strong clues of market tops being in place.
Tuesday, February 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a lower U.S. dollar versus the value of the other major world currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is technically teetering at present. Further weakness this week is likely to produce fresh, serious technical damage to suggest another leg down in prices in the near term, including new lows carved out against some currencies. If the greenback rebounds the rest of this week, then a sideways to higher trend is more likely to develop in the greenback.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are trading near steady levels in early morning electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy and the indexes have basically been in a sideways trading range for four weeks.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,365.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday's low of 1,351.70. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,380.00 and then at 1,390.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,356.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,367.75
1st Support:------ 1,358.50
2nd Support:------ 1,342.45
1st Resistance:--- 1,383.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,393.00
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,789.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,772.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at last week's high of 1,823.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,826.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,793.00
1st Support:------ 1,791.00
2nd Support:------ 1,787.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,797.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,787.00
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at Monday's low of 12,430. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,600 and then just above resistance at 12,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,620
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,530
1st Support:------ 12,476
2nd Support:------ 12,375
1st Resistance:--- 12,631
2nd Resistance:--- 12,685
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 even and then at 115 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Monday's low of 114 14/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 10/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 3/32
1st Support:----- 114 11/32
2nd Support:----- 113 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 8/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.16.0 and then just above resistance at 114.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday's low of 114.05.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.17.0
1st Support:------ 113.31.0
2nd Support:------ 113.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.28.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.14.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.20 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday's low of 75.83 and then at 75.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.06. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4738 and then more stops just below support at 1.4700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.47790 and then at Friday's high of 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4685 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of $958.40 and then at the $965.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $947.70 and then just below support at $940.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $932.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $99.70 and then just above resistance at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $98.45, and then more sell stops just below support at $98.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $96.91. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were sharply higher in overnight trading. New all-time highs were hit in wheat, soybeans and corn. Grain traders will continue to look to the key "outside markets"--gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar--for direction.
Monday, February 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today is grain futures markets that were strongly higher overnight, with wheat, corn and soybean futures soaring to new contract and all-time highs.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
"Speculative excess." That's what takes hold of strong bull-market moves in the late stages of price advances. That's also one precursor to market tops being put in place and markets then many times selling off sharply to form V-Top reversals--especially in commodity futures markets. Part of the speculative excess comes from weak-handed longs who enter the market very late in the game, expecting big profits quickly, and then bail out when big price gains don't quickly occur, as has been the case just recently. I see very early clues of speculative excess in the grain futures markets--especially soybean oil.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy and the indexes have basically been in a sideways trading range for four weeks.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,340.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,371.00 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,350.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,349.25
1st Support:------ 1,339.00
2nd Support:------ 1,319.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,368.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,378.75
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 1,758.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,750.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at last week's high of 1,823.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,826.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,779.85
1st Support:------ 1,769.20
2nd Support:------ 1,747.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,801.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,811.85
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,300 and then more stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,550. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,310
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,327
1st Support:------ 12,248
2nd Support:------ 12,092
1st Resistance:--- 12,483
2nd Resistance:--- 12,562
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 28/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 3/32
1st Support:----- 115 16/32
2nd Support:----- 115 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 1/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.00.0 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 115.04.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.08.0
1st Support:------ 114.26.0
2nd Support:------ 114.18.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.16.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.30.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading today. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 75.73 and then at 76.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.25 and then at 75.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.82. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4781 and then more stops just below support at 1.4750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4900 and then at the February high of 1.4946. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4731 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $953.00 and then at the contract high of $958.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $943.70 and then just below support at $940.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $932.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $99.37 and then just above resistance at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $97.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $96.91. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were narrowly mixed in quieter overnight trading. Weekly USDA export sales data is out today, delayed a day due to the federal holiday on Monday. The grain bulls have made a big run and now may need to at least pause for a bit. Grain traders will continue to look to the key "outside markets"--gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar--for direction. My bias is also that wheat will continue to be a leader in the grain futures complex.
Friday, February 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index prices. Otherwise, markets were fairly quiet overnight.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Those of you who've followed my work for some time know that I'm a keen advocate of using protective buy and sell stops in trading markets. There is also another protective stop method: time stops. For more on time stops, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll email you back a feature story I wrote on the subject a while back.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Trading has turned choppy and the indexes have basically been in a sideways trading range for four weeks.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,333.90. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,325.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,348.90 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,346.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,351.75
1st Support:------ 1,334.50
2nd Support:------ 1,321.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,364.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,381.55
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday's low of 1,764.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,754.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at this week's high of 1,821.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,790.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,783.70
1st Support:------ 1,756.35
2nd Support:------ 1,736.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,803.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,830.70
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,260 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 12,230. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,400 and then just above resistance at 12,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,400
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,362
1st Support:------ 12,219
2nd Support:------ 12,117
1st Resistance:--- 12,464
2nd Resistance:--- 12,607
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. The bulls have quickly regained upside technical momentum and are shooting for a bullish weekly high close today.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 2/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at the overnight low of 117 6/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 5/32
1st Support:----- 116 22/32
2nd Support:----- 115 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 17/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.31.0 and then just above resistance at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.14.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 116.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.09.0
1st Support:------ 115.28.0
2nd Support:------ 115.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 117.04.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.17.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.17 and then at 76.38. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 75.91 and then at 75.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4694 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4753 and then at 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4685 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh all-time high overnight. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $952.40 and then at $955.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $941.00 and then just below support at $935.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $928.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $100.00 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's contract high of $108.86. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $97.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $96.91. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Weekly USDA export sales data is delayed until Friday, due to the federal holiday on Monday. The grain bulls have made a big run and now may need to at least pause for a bit. Grain traders will continue to look to the key "outside markets"--gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar--for direction. My bias is also that wheat will continue to be a leader in the grain futures complex.
Thursday, February 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold and silver prices. Gold futures hit a fresh all-time high above $950.00 overnight, while silver futures hit $18.00 an ounce and are at a 28-year high.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity traders should keep an eye on the value of the Euro currency against the U.S. dollar. The Euro is presently in a sideways trading range at higher levels. The direction in which the Euro "breaks out" of the trading range will likely be key for commodity traders. An upside breakout by the Euro, to fresh highs, would be commodity-market bullish and suggest another fresh leg up in commodity prices forthcoming. But a downside breakout in the Euro from the sideways trading range would be commodity-market bearish and suggest at least significant corrective pullbacks in many commodity markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. The indexes has basically been in a sideways trading range for four weeks.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,356.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,350.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,371.10 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,355.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,352.50
1st Support:------ 1,340.40
2nd Support:------ 1,321.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,371.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,383.20
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,788.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,770.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,821.00 and then at 1,831.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,790.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,780.00
1st Support:------ 1,764.00
2nd Support:------ 1,738.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,805.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,821.25
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,400 and then more stops just below support at 12,277. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,580. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,400
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,375
1st Support:------ 12,284
2nd Support:------ 12,140
1st Resistance:--- 12,519
2nd Resistance:--- 12,610
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today, on short covering.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 30/32
1st Support:----- 115 17/32
2nd Support:----- 114 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 3/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.19.0 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 115.29.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.07.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.05.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.16.0
1st Support:------ 115.04.0
2nd Support:------ 114.23.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.09.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today, on a short-covering bounce in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.50 and then at 76.70. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.18 and then at 76.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4623 and then more stops just below support at 1.4600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4700 and then at the overnight high of 1.4722. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4685 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly slightly lower in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $934.40 and then at the contract high of $942.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $924.40 and then just below support at $920.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $922.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls have gained solid upside technical momentum recently, but the $100.00 mark is strong psychological resistance that has turned prices back in recent months. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $100.00 and then just above resistance at $101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $97.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $96.91. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading. The bulls have made a big run and now may need to at least pause for a bit. Grain traders will continue to look to the key "outside markets"--gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar--for direction. My bias is also that wheat will continue to be a leader in the grain futures complex.
Wednesday, February 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index prices and a solid rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil futures did poke above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel Tuesday. But my bias is that the upside is limited at present high price levels in the crude oil market. Three times in recent months crude oil has challenged or poked just above $100.00, and then backed off significantly.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading. The bears are still successfully using rallies as selling opportunities in the stock indexes.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,336.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,325.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,355.40 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,369.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,355.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,356.90
1st Support:------ 1,344.05
2nd Support:------ 1,332.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,368.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,381.10
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,761.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,750.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,782.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,790.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,787.85
1st Support:------ 1,754.70
2nd Support:------ 1,727.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,814.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,847.85
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,308 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 12,277. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,400 and then just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,510. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,400
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,402
1st Support:------ 12,294
2nd Support:------ 12,200
1st Resistance:--- 12,496
2nd Resistance:--- 12,604
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Bears have gained fresh downside near-term technical momentum recently.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at 116 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 6/32
1st Support:----- 115 8/32
2nd Support:----- 114 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 21/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.27.5 and then just above resistance at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.11.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.25.0
1st Support:------ 115.03.0
2nd Support:------ 114.23.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.05.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.27.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower again in early trading today. Bears still have solid downside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.40 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 75.88 and then at 75.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4700 and then more stops just below support at 1.4650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4750 and then at 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4685 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $931.00 and then at the contract high of $942.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $920.00 and then just below support at $910.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $922.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply higher early today, on reports OPEC is considering reducing the cartel's production quota. Bulls have gained solid upside technical momentum as prices hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $98.00 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $99.15. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $97.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $96.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $93.32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on follow-through strength from big gains last week. The bulls have solid near-term technical momentum, amid stronger "outside markets" and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, wheat bulls still have some work to do to repair recent near-term technical damage.
Tuesday, February 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is stronger U.S. stock index prices and also higher raw commodity futures prices, let by surging crude oil prices amid ideas OPEC will reduce its output.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The raw commodity futures markets are starting out the week with an upside bang again, as the bulls have regained upside momentum, led by crude oil's resurgence. If history again proves that it does repeat itself, the commodity markets are in for a tumble at some point. Most commodity markets experience boom-and-bust cycles that many times produce V-Top reversals on the charts. However, the problem some commodity traders are experiencing recently is trying to "top pick" skyrocketing commodity markets. Would-be top pickers are standing in front of a freight train by attempting to short markets in a strong uptrend. Any ideas on shorting (selling) major bull commodity markets should be done with put option purchases. At least then the traders' financial risk is known.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,350.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,336.60. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the last week's high of 1,370.00 and then at 1,380.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,383.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,348.40
1st Support:------ 1,339.55
2nd Support:------ 1,327.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,360.15
2nd Resistance:--- 1,369.00
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,778.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 1,770.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,821.00 and then at last week's high of 1,831.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,842.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,785.40
1st Support:------ 1,771.10
2nd Support:------ 1,755.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,800.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,815.20
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at low of 12,400 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 12,277. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 12,580 and then just above resistance at 12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,400
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,332
1st Support:------ 12,295
2nd Support:------ 12,241
1st Resistance:--- 12,386
2nd Resistance:--- 12,423
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Bears have gained fresh downside near-term technical momentum recently.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week's low of 115 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 115 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 26/32
1st Support:----- 116 11/32
2nd Support:----- 115 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 29/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.00.0 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of 116.13.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.08.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.14.0
1st Support:------ 116.03.0
2nd Support:------ 115.25.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.03.0
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower again in early trading today. Bears have fresh downside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.27 and then at 76.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.04 and then at 75.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4620 and then more stops just below support at 1.4600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4686 and then at 1.4700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4685 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $917.30 and then at $922.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $910.00 and then just below support at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $899.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have upside technical momentum as prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $96.05 and then just above resistance at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $94.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $92.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on follow-through strength from big gains Thursday that did give the bulls a boost of fresh technical momentum. Still, this week's action in K.C. and Chicago wheat futures is a bearish omen for all grain traders. A very big upside day today in the wheat futures markets would repair some of the early-week technical damage. Bottom line: Trading the grains from either side of the market, during these parabolic price moves, is not for the weak-hearted trader.
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