|
Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
Interested in advertising on TraderBlog.com?
Click here for more information.
|
|
The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« February 2008 |
Main
| April 2008 »
March 2008 Archives
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 72.25 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.95 and then last week's low of 71.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.44. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5705 and then more stops just below support at 1.5667. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5780 and then at the contract high of 1.5820. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5607. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is modestly higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $943.90 and then at $950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $931.60 and then just below support at Friday's low of $928.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $958.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly weaker early today. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $106.00 and then just above resistance at $107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $104.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $103.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $103.12. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Soybeans and corn were higher and wheat was lower. Today's key USDA planting intentions report will garner much trader scrutiny. However, after today it's likely traders again will look to the key "outside markets" gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar for direction. The wheat and soybean bulls are still in some trouble. Corn is the strongest market, technically, but if wheat and beans can't make upside headway, the upside will also be limited for corn.
Monday, March 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in overnight/early morning trading today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter. So look for a more active trading day today as some traders and funds do some book-squaring. My bias is still that the raw commodity market bulls are in some near-term trouble as near-term technical damage has been inflicted in several commodity markets. Bear flags or bearish pennant chart formations are showing up on the daily bar charts for several commodities.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage heading into some important U.S. economic data this week.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,309.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,300.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,323.00 and then at 1,330.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,307.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,324.50
1st Support:------ 1,308.45
2nd Support:------ 1,298.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,334.95
2nd Resistance:--- 1,351.00
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,768.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,750.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,810.00 and then at last week's high of 1,840.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,756.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,786.35
1st Support:------ 1,762.70
2nd Support:------ 1,645.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,803.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,827.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 12,195 and then more stops just below support at 12,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,300 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 12,375. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,149
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,269
1st Support:------ 12,162
2nd Support:------ 12,089
1st Resistance:--- 12,342
2nd Resistance:--- 12,449
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Neither the bulls nor the bears have much of an edge at present, in choppier trading conditions.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average but is turning down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 31/32 and then at 119 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 13/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 13/32
1st Support:----- 117 25/32
2nd Support:----- 117 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 25/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 119.00.0 and then just above resistance at 119.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.21.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 118.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.23.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.18.0
1st Support:------ 118.07.0
2nd Support:------ 117.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 119.03.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.14.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in
early trading today. Bears still have downside
technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 72.22 and then at 72.50. Shorter-
term support is seen at this week’s low of 71.75
and then at 71.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 72.45 Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is modestly higher in early
electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders
are likely located just below technical support at
the overnight low of 1.5685 and then more stops
just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the
this week’s high of 1.5797 and then at the contract
high of 1.5820. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are
bullish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5612.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is steady to modestly lower in early dealings
today, amid a steady U.S. dollar. For June gold,
shorter-term technical support is seen at the
overnight low of $945.80 and then at $939.60. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy
stops likely reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $956.30 and then just above
resistance at this week’s high of $960.30. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$958.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly lower early today. In
May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $107.63 and
then just above resistance at this week’s high of
$108.22. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $106.00, and then more sell stops just
below support at $105.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $103.16.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Bulls are
fading. The steady greenback again today is not
giving the grain bulls any confidence. Traders are
keenly awaiting Monday morning’s USDA planting
intentions report. However, it would not surprise
me to see that report quickly put in the background
as grain traders continue to keenly focus on the
“outside markets”—especially the greenback.
Friday, March 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market features in
overnight/early morning trading today amid quieter
markets.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Traders, today and Monday are likely to be extra
important trading days in many markets. Today is
the last trading day of the week and Monday is the
last trading day of the month and of the quarter.
Look for the speculative “funds” to be more active
in the markets the next two trading sessions, as
they do some book-squaring.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning
electronic trading. Bulls do not want to see a
bearish weekly low close today. Looking at the
daily chart, the indexes have been trading mostly
sideways at lower price levels for the past two
months. Bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at this week’s low of
1,325.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that
level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-
term technical support at 1,310.00. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
Thursday’s high of 1,347.90 and then at this week’s
high of 1,361.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,321.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,334.90
1st Support:------ 1,321.90
2nd Support:------ 1,314.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,342.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,355.80
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support is
located at Thursday’s low of 1,783.00. Sell stops
likely reside just below that level, and then more
sell stops are likely located just below technical
support at 1,750.00. On the upside, short-term
resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,822.75
and then at this week’s high of 1,840.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,778.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,799.25
1st Support:------ 1,775.75
2nd Support:------ 1,759.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,815.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,839.00
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Thursday’s low of 12,290 and then more
stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops
likely reside just above shorter-term technical
resistance at Thursday’s high of 12,481 and then
just above resistance at this week’s high of
12,615. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,251
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,364
1st Support:------ 12,247
2nd Support:------ 12,173
1st Resistance:--- 12,438
2nd Resistance:--- 12,555
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading. Bulls are fading and do not want
to see a bearish weekly low close today.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies
at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
that level. More buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 119 even. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 117
21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that
level. More sell stops are likely located below
support at 117 8/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:117 15/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 12/32
1st Support:----- 117 17/32
2nd Support:----- 116 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 even
2nd Resistance:-- 119 27/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.14.5 and then just above resistance at
118.31.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at 118.00.0 and then more sell stops
just below support at this week’s low of 117.26.5.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 116.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.15.0
1st Support:------ 118.00.0
2nd Support:------ 117.19.0
1st Resistance:--- 118.28.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.11.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are modestly higher early today.
In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $107.70
and then just above resistance at $108.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $105.66, and then more sell stops
just below support at $105.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $103.16.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in
early trading today. Bears still have downside
technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 72.23 and then at 72.50. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.75
and then at 71.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 72.45 Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is slightly lower in early electronic
trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.5667 and then more stops just
below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at the this week’s
high of 1.5797 and then at the contract high of
1.5820. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.5612. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is steady to slightly lower in early dealings
today, amid a steady U.S. dollar. For June gold,
shorter-term technical support is seen at the
overnight low of $946.10 and then at $939.60. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy
stops likely reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $960.30 and then just above
resistance at $965.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $958.70.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading, with the
soy complex lower and corn and wheat higher. The
steady greenback today is giving the grain traders
pause today. Traders are keenly awaiting next
Monday morning’s USDA planting intentions report.
However, it would not surprise me to see that
report quickly put in the background as grain
traders continue to keenly focus on the “outside
markets.”
Thursday, March 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today are a steady U.S. dollar versus the
other major currencies. U.S. stock index futures
are firmer today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Here are my biases at present: I don’t think there
is much downside left in the U.S. dollar at present
price levels. And that would extrapolate to mean
that there is not much upside left in most of the
commodity futures markets that have rallied
strongly recently. I think the U.S. stock indexes
will chop in a trading range in the near term, but
with a weak bias. I think U.S. Treasuries are still
the safest game in town and that will limit their
downside. Another thing I’ve noticed: The livestock
futures seem to trade against the general price
trend of other commodity markets. So if gold, crude
and the grains begin to back down, then cattle and
hogs could see an uptrend develop.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are mixed in early morning
electronic trading. Looking at the daily chart, the
indexes have been trading mostly sideways at lower
price levels for the past two months. Bears still
have the slight near-term technical advantage.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,332.30.
Sell stops likely reside just under that level.
More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at this week’s low of 1,325.80.
Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at Wednesday’s high of 1,351.90 and then at
this week’s high of 1,361.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,321.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,340.45
1st Support:------ 1,329.00
2nd Support:------ 1,332.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,346.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,358.35
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at
1,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that
level, and then more sell stops are likely located
just below technical support at 1,783.00. On the
upside, short-term resistance is seen at
Wednesday’s high of 1,830.00 and then at this
week’s high of 1,840.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,778.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,815.40
1st Support:------ 1,800.85
2nd Support:------ 1,791.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,824.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,839.40
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at this week’s low of 12,336 and then more
stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops
likely reside just above shorter-term technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 12,505 and then
just above resistance at this week’s high of
12,615. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,251
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,421
1st Support:------ 12,337
2nd Support:------ 12,291
1st Resistance:--- 12,467
2nd Resistance:--- 12,551
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker
in early trading. My bias is that the downside in
U.S. Treasuries is limited at present price levels
and that dips are still buying opportunities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at 118 24/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above that level. More buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 119 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at
this week’s low of 118 2/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below that level. More sell stops are
likely located below support at 117 24/32.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 2/32
1st Support:----- 118 17/32
2nd Support:----- 117 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 5/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.00.0 and then just
above resistance at 119.08.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
118.13.5 and then more sell stops just below
support at 118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.21.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.23.0
1st Support:------ 118.15.0
2nd Support:------ 118.02.0
1st Resistance:--- 119.04.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.12.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher again in overnight
trading, amid another serious weakening in the
value of the U.S. dollar that has sparked fresh
speculative and fund buying interest in most
commodity futures markets. Bulls are working on
repairing recent near-term chart damage. Traders
are keenly awaiting next Monday morning’s USDA
planting intentions report.
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again
in early trading today. Bears have quickly regained
downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 72.50 and then at the overnight high
of 72.70. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 72.03 and then at 72.75. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
72.45 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is sharply higher in early electronic
trading and is back near the contract and all-time
high. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.5600 and
then more stops just below support at the overnight
low of 1.5521. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.5694 and then at 1.5750. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the
Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5271.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today,
amid a sharply lower U.S. dollar. For June gold,
shorter-term technical support is seen at the
overnight low of $939.60 and then at $930.00. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy
stops likely reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $954.20 and then just above
resistance at $960.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $958.70.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In May
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $103.00 and then just above
resistance at $104.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at the overnight low of
$101.43, and then more sell stops just below
support at $100.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $103.16. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 7.0
Wednesday, March 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features again in overnight/early
morning trading today is a sharply lower U.S.
dollar versus the other major currencies. Most
commodity markets are also trading with solid gains
in early dealnigs.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar this week has resumed serious
weakness against its major counterparts. That’s
good news for commodity market bulls as the
greenback is the key “outside market” for most
commodity futures markets at present. And the
weaker dollar is bearish for the U.S. stock
indexes, which are lower in early dealings. The
present atmosphere in the financial markets at
present is that traders are seemingly awaiting
another major “shoe to drop” like the Bear Stearns
shoe that dropped a couple weeks ago.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning
electronic trading. Bulls can’t seem to produce
that good follow-through strength after a day of
solid gains. That’s not a good technical sign for
the bulls.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 1,342.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under that level. More
sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,335.00. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at the
overnight high of 1,351.90 and then at this week’s
high of 1,361.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,321.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,350.90
1st Support:------ 1,342.50
2nd Support:------ 1,333.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,359.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,368.20
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at
Tuesday’s low of 1,806.00. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at
1,783.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,840.00 and then at
1,875.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,778.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,824.00
1st Support:------ 1,808.00
2nd Support:------ 1,790.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,842.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,858.00
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Tuesday’s low of 12,449 and then more
stops just below support at this week’s low of
12,336. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just
above resistance at this week’s high of 12,615.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,251
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,523
1st Support:------ 12,441
2nd Support:------ 12,368
1st Resistance:--- 12,596
2nd Resistance:--- 12,678
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading. The Treasuries are trading in an
inverse fashion with the U.S. stock indexes and
that will likely remain the case for at least the
near term. My bias is that the downside in U.S.
Treasuries is limited at present price levels and
that dips are still viewed by smart money as buying
opportunities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at 119 27/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above that level. More buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 120 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at
119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that
level. More sell stops are likely located below
support at the overnight low of 118 17/32.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 26/32
1st Support:----- 118 13/32
2nd Support:----- 117 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 28/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.00.0 and then just
above resistance at 119.08.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 118.16.0 and then
more sell stops just below support at the overnight
low of 118.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.12.0
1st Support:------ 118.03.0
2nd Support:------ 117.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 118.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.04.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today,
amid a sharply lower U.S. dollar. For June gold,
shorter-term technical support is seen at $925.00
and then at the overnight low of $916.40. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy
stops likely reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $941.00 and then just above
resistance at $950.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $958.70.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in
early trading today. Bears have quickly regained
downside technical momentum today. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 73.00 and then at the overnight high
of 73.38. Shorter-term support is seen at 72.50 and
then at 72.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 73.56 Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is sharply higher in early electronic
trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.5450 and
then more stops just below support at 1.5400.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.5550 and then at 1.5600. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.5271. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In May
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $102.00 and then just above
resistance at $102.50. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $100.00, and then more
sell stops just below support at $99.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$103.16. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher again in overnight
trading, on follow-through strength from strong
gains seen on Monday. Sharply higher closes near
the session highs today would likely give the grain
bulls some fresh upside near-term technical
momentum.
Tuesday, March 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today is a sharply higher U.S. dollar
versus the other major currencies. Gold is trading
sharply higher early.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar has resumed serious weakness this
morning. If the greenback starts another leg down
then the recently beleaguered commodity market
bulls will at least get a reprieve. We are seeing
that in sharply higher gold and grain prices
overnight and early this morning. However, crude
oil is only trading steady to slightly higher this
morning. That makes me suspect the recent popular
trading play of selling the U.S. dollar in the
FOREX market and buying crude oil futures has run
its course.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning
electronic trading. Good follow-through strength
today after solid gains on Monday would provide the
stock index bulls with some fresh upside near-term
technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average but is
turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical support comes in at the
overnight low of 1,348.00. Sell stops likely reside
just under that level. More sell stops likely
reside under shorter-term technical support at
1,335.00. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at Monday’s high of 1,361.00 and
then at 1,375.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,388.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,346.15
1st Support:------ 1,331.30
2nd Support:------ 1,310.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,366.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,381.35
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at the
overnight low of 1,814.00. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at
1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at the March high of 1,850.00 and then at
1,875.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,868.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,798.50
1st Support:------ 1,770.00
2nd Support:------ 1,720.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,847.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,876.25
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 12,456 and then more stops just below
support at Monday’s low of 12,336. Buy stops likely
reside just above shorter-term technical resistance
at Monday’s high of 12,615 and then just above
resistance at 12,775. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,637
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,497
1st Support:------ 12,379
2nd Support:------ 12,218
1st Resistance:--- 12,658
2nd Resistance:--- 12,776
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near
steady in early trading. The Treasuries are trading
in a keen inverse fashion with the U.S. stock
indexes. However, my bias is that the downside in
U.S. Treasuries is limited at present price levels
and that dips are still viewed by smart money as
buying opportunities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but
has turned down. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at 119 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above that level. More buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 119
16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Monday’s low of 118 2/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level. More sell stops are likely
located below support at 117 24/32. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 1/32
1st Support:----- 117 27/32
2nd Support:----- 116 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 even
2nd Resistance:-- 121 6/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 118.20.0 and then just
above resistance at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 118.00.0 and then
more sell stops just below support at Monday’s low
of 117.26.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.17.0
1st Support:------ 117.17.0
2nd Support:------ 116.26.0
1st Resistance:--- 119.08.0
2nd Resistance:--- 120.08.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum, but have much more work to
do to gain the solid technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.67
and then at 74.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 73.92 and then at 73.75.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 73.56 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is steady to firmer in early
electronic trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders
are likely located just below technical support at
the overnight low of 1.5273 and then more stops
just below support at 1.5250. Shorter-term
technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5400
and then at 1.5500. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro
are bearish early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5271.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For
June gold, shorter-term technical support is seen
at last week’s low of $909.00 and then at $900.00.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at
$930.00 and then just above resistance at $940.00.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $958.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In May
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $102.00 and then just above
resistance at $102.50. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $100.00, and then more
sell stops just below support at $99.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$103.16. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on
a corrective bounce from sharp losses late last
week. The grain market bulls are presently still in
technical and psychological trouble. Key to
stopping the downdraft will be when traders feel
the markets have overdone it on the downside and
will step in to do some bargain-hunting buying. One
up-day today will not be enough to wrest near-term
power from the bears.
Monday, March 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today is firmer U.S. stock index futures
and lower U.S. Treasury futures. Most of Europe is
closed today for the Easter holiday.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I really don’t have many thoughts on the markets
today. My mind is still numb. My brother-in-law and
very close friend died suddenly over the weekend
from a massive heart attack while skiing in Winter
Park, Colorado. He was only 55 and on the cusp of
enjoying what is really the best part of life. I
guess my thought of the day for you would be to
never take life or your loved ones for granted and
to live each day to its very fullest.—Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning
electronic trading. Trading has turned choppier at
lower price levels and the bears still have the
near-term technical and psychological advantage.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,325.80. Sell
stops likely reside just under that level. More
sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,310.00. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at last week’s
high of 1,343.50 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,340.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,314.95
1st Support:------ 1,297.90
2nd Support:------ 1,271.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,341.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,358.85
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical support is
located at the overnight low of 1,749.25. Sell
stops likely reside just below that level, and then
more sell stops are likely located just below
technical support at Friday’s low of 1,710.75. On
the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the
March high of 1,783.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,732.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,756.20
1st Support:------ 1,753.35
2nd Support:------ 1,746.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,763.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,765.90
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 12,250 and then more stops just below
support at Friday’s low of 12,046. Buy stops likely
reside just above shorter-term technical resistance
at Thursday’s high of 12,378 and then just above
resistance at last week’s high of 12,456. Shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,350
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,251
1st Support:------ 12,123
2nd Support:------ 11,919
1st Resistance:--- 12,455
2nd Resistance:--- 12,583
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower
in early trading. The Treasuries appear to be
starting the week wanting to trade in a keen
inverse fashion with the U.S. stock indexes.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are beaerish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies
at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
that level. More buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at the overnight high of 120
27/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119
24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that
level. More sell stops are likely located below
support at 119 16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 120 20/32
1st Support:----- 120 7/32
2nd Support:----- 119 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 121 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 25/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.00.0 and then just
above resistance at the overnight high of 119.18.0.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at 118.16.0 and then more sell stops
just below support at 118.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 119.24.0
1st Support:------ 119.17.0
2nd Support:------ 119.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 120.02.0
2nd Resistance:--- 120.09.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in
early trading today. Bulls have gained some fresh
upside technical momentum recently, but have much
more work to do to gain the solid technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 73.50 and then
at 74.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 73.00 and
then at the overnight low of 72.46. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.56
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The June Euro is solidly lower in early electronic
trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.5300 and
then more stops just below support at 1.5200.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.5500 and then at the overnight high of
1.5578. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.5271. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today and
hit a fresh five-week low overnight. For April
gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the
overnight low of $904.70 and then at $900.00. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Buy
stops likely reside just above resistance at
$930.00 and then just above resistance at the
overnight high of $943.80. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $912.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today and
hit a fresh two-week low overnight. In May crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at $101.00 and then just above resistance at
$102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $99.00, and then more sell stops just
below support at $97.50. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $97.89.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were sharply lower to limit down in
overnight trading. The grain market bulls are
presently in more technical and psychological
trouble than they have been in for many months. Key
to stopping the downdraft will be when traders feel
the markets have overdone it on the downside and
will step in to do some bargain-hunting buying.
Thursday, March 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today are sharply lower commodity futures
prices, led by gold, and a stronger U.S. dollar
versus the other currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading action today—the last trading day of the
week--will be extra important for many markets.
U.S. markets are closed on Friday for the Good
Friday holiday. The upcoming long three-day weekend
could make traders and investors even more nervous.
With most commodity futures markets under strong
selling pressure the past two days, the key
question is when will bargain-hunting buyers step
up in strong fashion. It could be as early as
today. Key for commodity traders will be to
continue to watch the U.S. dollar in its trading
versus the other major currencies.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning
electronic trading. Bears still have the near-term
technical advantage.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,288.10.
Sell stops likely reside just under that level.
More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,274.50. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at the
overnight high of 1,307.70 and then at 1,325.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,307.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,313.30
1st Support:------ 1,283.10
2nd Support:------ 1,266.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,329.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,359.80
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at the
overnight low of 1,710.75. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at
1,698.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 1,734.00 and then at
1,800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,732.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,741.20
1st Support:------ 1,704.35
2nd Support:------ 1,684.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,761.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,798.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Wednesday’s low of 12,080 and then more
stops just below support at 12,000. Buy stops
likely reside just above shorter-term technical
resistance at 12,200 and then just above resistance
at 12,305. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,134
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,218
1st Support:------ 11,981
2nd Support:------ 11,842
1st Resistance:--- 12,357
2nd Resistance:--- 12,594
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are mixed
in early trading. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 18/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More
buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 121 even. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 120 2/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below that level. More
sell stops are likely located below support at 119
16/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 28/32
1st Support:----- 119 7/32
2nd Support:----- 118 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 121 19/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
119.28.0 and then just above resistance at the
contract high of 120.01.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 119.13.5 and then more sell stops
just below support at 119.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.24.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 119.13.0
1st Support:------ 118.31.0
2nd Support:------ 118.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 120.05.0
2nd Resistance:--- 120.19.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today. For
April gold, shorter-term technical support is seen
at the overnight low of $981.60 and then at this
week’s low of $976.80. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Buy stops likely reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of
$997.80 and then just above resistance at
$1,000.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $998.00. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Bears still have the near-term
technical advantage but may be exhausted after the
recent push lower. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 72.43 and then at Tuesday’s high
of 72.59. Shorter-term support is seen at 72.00 and
then at Tuesday’s low of 71.57. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.50
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.5600 and
then more stops just below support at the overnight
low of 1.5541. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.5716 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.5757. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.5593. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In May
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $108.00 and then just above
resistance at $109.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $106.00, and then more
sell stops just below support at $105.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Look
for more nervous long liquidation in the grain
futures today. If stocks sell off sharply today,
grains will likely suffer, too. Soybeans have
suffered serious technical damage recently to
suggest a market top is in place. That does also
not bode well for wheat and corn bulls.
Wednesday, March 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today are weaker U.S. stock indexes, higher
U.S. Treasury prices and lower gold and crude oil
prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Trading action today and on Thursday will be extra
important for many markets. Remember that markets
are closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
The upcoming long three-day weekend could make
traders and investors even more nervous. It still
would not surprise me to see price volatility heat
up again at some point this week. And I still think
the raw commodity market bulls are in at least some
near-term trouble amid deflationary fears.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning
electronic trading. Bears do still have the near-
term technical advantage.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,320.70. Sell
stops likely reside just under that level. More
sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,310.00. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at the
overnight high of 1,337.00 and then at 1,346.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,307.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,315.85
1st Support:------ 1,297.20
2nd Support:------ 1,260.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,352.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,371.35
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at the
overnight low of 1,755.50. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at
1,725.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 1,775.75 and then at
1,800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,732.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,747.50
1st Support:------ 1,722.00
2nd Support:------ 1,673.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,796.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,822.00
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 12,300 and then more stops just below
support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just
above shorter-term technical resistance at
Tuesday’s high of 12,405 and then just above
resistance at 12,500. Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,134
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,266
1st Support:------ 12,128
2nd Support:------ 11,850
1st Resistance:--- 12,544
2nd Resistance:--- 12,682
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer
in early trading and continue to trade at a
pronounced inverse fashion with the U.S. stock
indexes.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies
at the overnight high of 120 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above that level. More buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 120 8/32.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below that level.
More sell stops are likely located below support at
the overnight low of 118 24/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 18/32
1st Support:----- 118 26/32
2nd Support:----- 118 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 120 23/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
119.19.0 and then just above resistance at the
contract high of 120.01.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 118.21.0 and then more sell stops
just below support at 118.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.24.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 119.06.0
1st Support:------ 118.17.0
2nd Support:------ 118.04.0
1st Resistance:--- 119.19.0
2nd Resistance:--- 120.08.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in
early trading today. Bears still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 72.07 and then at
72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 71.57 and then at the contract low
of 71.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 72.24 Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is solidly higher in early electronic
trading. The Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at 1.5700 and
then more stops just below support at the overnight
low of 1.5638. Shorter-term technical resistance
for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.5757 and then at the contract high of 1.5820. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.5593. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
7.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For April
gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at
$1,000.00 and then at the overnight low of $994.80.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at
$1,020.00 and then just above resistance at the
contract high of $1,033.90. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $991.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today, on
a corrective bounce from very steep losses on
Monday. The slumping U.S. dollar is supportive to
the crude oil bulls. In April crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $108.00
and then just above resistance at $109.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $105.68, and then more sell stops
just below support at $105.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $105.39.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was
higher and corn and soybeans were lower. Look for
more nervous long liquidation in the grain futures
today. If stocks sell off today, grain bulls will
likely again run for cover. Soybeans have suffered
serious technical damage recently to suggest a
market top is in place. That does also not bode
well for wheat and corn bulls.
Tuesday, March 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning
trading today is a solid rebound in U.S. stock
indexes, lower U.S. Treasury prices and a continued
slump in the value of the U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Traders: The calmer market conditions in
overnight/early morning trading today should not
lull you. It would not surprise me to see price
volatility heat up again at some point this week.
And for commodity market traders: There is still
the risk of deflation in world economies. Deflation
is the arch enemy of commodity market bulls.
Remember that the Federal Reserve meets today and
is likely to again cut interest rates. The Fed
meeting and what it will do regarding interest
rates and its statement after the FOMC meeting will
keep traders anxious.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly higher in early
morning electronic trading, on a corrective bounce
and some bargain hunting in a bear market.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,279.00.
Sell stops likely reside just under that level.
More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,265.00. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at 1,300.00 and
then at Monday’s high of 1,313.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,307.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,281.90
1st Support:------ 1,250.75
2nd Support:------ 1,222.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,310.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,341.80
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at the
overnight low of 1,698.50. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at the
contract low of 1,674.00. On the upside, short-term
resistance is seen at 1,730.00 and then at Monday’s
high of 1,754.50. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,732.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,707.95
1st Support:------ 1,661.35
2nd Support:------ 1,627.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,641.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,788.40
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 12,000 and then more stops just below
support at 11,900. Buy stops likely reside just
above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,200
and then just above resistance at last week’s high
of 12,305. Shorter-term mov |
