Name: Jim Wyckoff 
U.S. Dollar Continues to Slump
Wednesday, March 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features again in overnight/early
morning trading today is a sharply lower U.S.
dollar versus the other major currencies. Most
commodity markets are also trading with solid gains
in early dealnigs.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar this week has resumed serious
weakness against its major counterparts. That’s
good news for commodity market bulls as the
greenback is the key “outside market” for most
commodity futures markets at present. And the
weaker dollar is bearish for the U.S. stock
indexes, which are lower in early dealings. The
present atmosphere in the financial markets at
present is that traders are seemingly awaiting
another major “shoe to drop” like the Bear Stearns
shoe that dropped a couple weeks ago.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning
electronic trading. Bulls can’t seem to produce
that good follow-through strength after a day of
solid gains. That’s not a good technical sign for
the bulls.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 1,342.00. Sell
stops likely reside just under that level. More
sell stops likely reside under shorter-term
technical support at 1,335.00. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at the
overnight high of 1,351.90 and then at this week’s
high of 1,361.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,321.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,350.90
1st Support:------ 1,342.50
2nd Support:------ 1,333.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,359.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,368.20
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at
Tuesday’s low of 1,806.00. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at
1,783.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,840.00 and then at
1,875.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,778.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,824.00
1st Support:------ 1,808.00
2nd Support:------ 1,790.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,842.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,858.00
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Tuesday’s low of 12,449 and then more
stops just below support at this week’s low of
12,336. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just
above resistance at this week’s high of 12,615.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,251
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,523
1st Support:------ 12,441
2nd Support:------ 12,368
1st Resistance:--- 12,596
2nd Resistance:--- 12,678
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher
in early trading. The Treasuries are trading in an
inverse fashion with the U.S. stock indexes and
that will likely remain the case for at least the
near term. My bias is that the downside in U.S.
Treasuries is limited at present price levels and
that dips are still viewed by smart money as buying
opportunities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at 119 27/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above that level. More buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 120 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at
119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that
level. More sell stops are likely located below
support at the overnight low of 118 17/32.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 118 26/32
1st Support:----- 118 13/32
2nd Support:----- 117 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 119 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 28/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 119.00.0 and then just
above resistance at 119.08.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 118.16.0 and then
more sell stops just below support at the overnight
low of 118.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.12.0
1st Support:------ 118.03.0
2nd Support:------ 117.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 118.27.0
2nd Resistance:--- 119.04.0
