Name: Jim Wyckoff 
U.S. Dollar Sharply Lower Early
Tuesday, March 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today is a sharply higher U.S. dollar
versus the other major currencies. Gold is trading
sharply higher early.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar has resumed serious weakness this
morning. If the greenback starts another leg down
then the recently beleaguered commodity market
bulls will at least get a reprieve. We are seeing
that in sharply higher gold and grain prices
overnight and early this morning. However, crude
oil is only trading steady to slightly higher this
morning. That makes me suspect the recent popular
trading play of selling the U.S. dollar in the
FOREX market and buying crude oil futures has run
its course.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning
electronic trading. Good follow-through strength
today after solid gains on Monday would provide the
stock index bulls with some fresh upside near-term
technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average but is
turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical support comes in at the
overnight low of 1,348.00. Sell stops likely reside
just under that level. More sell stops likely
reside under shorter-term technical support at
1,335.00. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at Monday’s high of 1,361.00 and
then at 1,375.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,388.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,346.15
1st Support:------ 1,331.30
2nd Support:------ 1,310.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,366.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,381.35
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical support is located at the
overnight low of 1,814.00. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level, and then more sell stops are
likely located just below technical support at
1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at the March high of 1,850.00 and then at
1,875.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,868.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,798.50
1st Support:------ 1,770.00
2nd Support:------ 1,720.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,847.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,876.25
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 12,456 and then more stops just below
support at Monday’s low of 12,336. Buy stops likely
reside just above shorter-term technical resistance
at Monday’s high of 12,615 and then just above
resistance at 12,775. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 12,637
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,497
1st Support:------ 12,379
2nd Support:------ 12,218
1st Resistance:--- 12,658
2nd Resistance:--- 12,776
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near
steady in early trading. The Treasuries are trading
in a keen inverse fashion with the U.S. stock
indexes. However, my bias is that the downside in
U.S. Treasuries is limited at present price levels
and that dips are still viewed by smart money as
buying opportunities.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but
has turned down. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at 119 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above that level. More buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 119
16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Monday’s low of 118 2/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below that level. More sell stops are likely
located below support at 117 24/32. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level:118 28/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 119 1/32
1st Support:----- 117 27/32
2nd Support:----- 116 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 120 even
2nd Resistance:-- 121 6/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 118.20.0 and then just
above resistance at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 118.00.0 and then
more sell stops just below support at Monday’s low
of 117.26.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.22.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 118.17.0
1st Support:------ 117.17.0
2nd Support:------ 116.26.0
1st Resistance:--- 119.08.0
2nd Resistance:--- 120.08.0
