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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« March 2008 |
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| May 2008 »
April 2008 Archives
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is steady to higher in early trading today. Bulls have some upside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 73.25 and then at 73.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.95 and then at this week's low of 72.65. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.48. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5497 and then more stops just below support at 1.5450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5582 and then at 1.5600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5356. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh 3.5-month low overnight. Bears have downside technical momentum on their side. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $877.40 and then at $880.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $864.10 and then just below support at $860.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $898.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $117.00 and then just above resistance at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $114.86, and then more sell stops just below support at $114.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $114.72. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from losses on Tuesday. Again today, the key "outside markets" will be key. Early trading today finds these markets in a neutral posture. Gold is lower, crude oil firmer are the U.S. dollar is near steady. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. The wet conditions in the Corn Belt are still bullish for corn and modestly bearish for soybeans.
Wednesday, April 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today, as traders await the outcome of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting this afternoon, in which the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today will be an extra important trading day in the markets. Today is not only the anticipated FOCM meeting announcement but also the last trading day of the month. Any market that produces a bullish monthly high close will gain technical strength, while any market that produces a bearish monthly low close will suffer chart damage.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to slightly lower in early morning trading. Trading is quieter heading into the outcome of the FOMC meeting and ahead of the key U.S. jobs report on Friday morning.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,385.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,380.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,394.70 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,388.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,392.50
1st Support:------ 1,386.05
2nd Support:------ 1,380.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,397.75
2nd Resistance:--- 1,404.20
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,928.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,918.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 1,950.00 and then at 1,975.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,927.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,935.35
1st Support:------ 1,921.70
2nd Support:------ 1,904.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,952.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,966.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,795 and then more stops just below support at 12,740. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,885 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 12,940. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,734
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,835
1st Support:------ 12,786
2nd Support:------ 12,745
1st Resistance:--- 12,876
2nd Resistance:--- 12,925
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Look for active trading right after this afternoon's FOMC announcement.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 116 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 2/32 and then at 115 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 12/32
1st Support:----- 115 28/32
2nd Support:----- 115 15/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 9/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.17.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.16.0
1st Support:------ 115.07.0
2nd Support:------ 114.30.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.02.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. Bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $890.00 and then at the overnight high of $895.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $884.20 and then just below support at last week's low of $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $910.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 73.25 and then at 73.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.71 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.48. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5509 and then more stops just below support at 1.5450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5600 and then at the overnight high of 1.5630. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5356. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $118.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $118.84. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $117.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $116.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $117.04. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. However, the key "outside markets" early today are in a bearish posture for the grains. Gold and crude oil are lower and the U.S. dollar is higher. That will limit the upside in the grains today. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. The wet conditions in the Corn Belt are very bullish for corn and modestly bearish for soybeans.
Tuesday, April 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil and gold prices. U.S. stock indexes are weaker early today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
While the evidence far from conclusive yet, the recent rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar, including today's price strength, is the strongest evidence yet that the greenback has bottomed out and will begin to appreciate against the other major currencies. A stronger U.S. dollar would likely put at least near-term market tops in commodity markets that have recently scored all-time or multi-year highs. A stronger greenback would be bearish for Treasuries and bullish for the U.S. stock market.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading may be quieter heading into this week's FOMC meeting and the U.S. jobs report to end the week.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,390.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,380.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,404.60 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,374.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,398.70
1st Support:------ 1,392.80
2nd Support:------ 1,388.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,403.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,409.40
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,898.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,882.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,927.50 and then at last week's high of 1,950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,929.10
1st Support:------ 1,916.20
2nd Support:------ 1,905.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,939.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,952.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,850 and then more stops just below support at 12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,900 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 12,940. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,886
1st Support:------ 12,843
2nd Support:------ 12,806
1st Resistance:--- 12,923
2nd Resistance:--- 12,966
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 116 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 30/32 and then at 115 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 26/32
1st Support:----- 115 15/32
2nd Support:----- 114 25/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 27/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.24.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.07.0
1st Support:------ 115.01.0
2nd Support:------ 114.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.20.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.26.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum, but do not want to see two solid down days in a row. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 73.00 and then at last week's high of 73.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.65 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5561 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 1.5522. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5663 and then at 1.5700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5356. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $896.80 and then at $900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $888.80 and then just below support at last week's low of $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $910.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today and set a fresh contract and all-time high of $119.93 overnight. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $119.93 and then just above resistance at $120.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $118.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $117.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $117.80. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are in a bullish posture for the grains early today. Gold and crude oil are higher and the U.S. dollar is lower. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states. The wet conditions in the Corn Belt are very bullish for corn, causing significant planting delays.
Monday, April 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer crude oil prices that hit another all-time record high in overnight trading and are now within a few cents of $120.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is back on the defensive to start the new week, after the greenback bulls had some success late last week. The weaker dollar today has again emboldened commodity market bulls. Most markets will continue to focus on the U.S. dollar early this week. A down day in the dollar today would not dent the bulls' recently gained technical momentum. However, two solid down days in a row in the U.S. dollar index would deflate the bulls.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading, as the bulls have near-term upside technical momentum after bullish weekly high closes on Friday.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,393.90. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's low of 1,380.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,404.60 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,374.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,392.90
1st Support:------ 1,384.75
2nd Support:------ 1,372.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,405.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,413.40
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,918.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,900.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 1,950.00 and then at 1,975.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,917.35
1st Support:------ 1,901.70
2nd Support:------ 1,882.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,936.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,952.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,800 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 12,740. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 12,900 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 12,940. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,838
1st Support:------ 12,777
2nd Support:------ 12,678
1st Resistance:--- 12,937
2nd Resistance:--- 12,998
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Bears have near-term downside technical momentum on their side as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 23/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 8/32 and then at 115 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 21/32
1st Support:----- 115 6/32
2nd Support:----- 114 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 16/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.07.0 and then at Friday's high of 115.14.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Friday's low of 114.20.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.01.0
1st Support:------ 114.21.0
2nd Support:------ 114.07.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.15.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.27.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are mixed to bearishly postured for the grains early today. Gold is steady, crude oil higher and the U.S. dollar is higher. The stronger dollar will limit the upside in grains in the early going today. Grain bears do have downside near-term technical momentum. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states, which is still deemed overall bullish for corn but slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat.
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.25 and then at 73.59. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.70 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.45. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5522 and then more stops just below support at 1.5500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5600 and then at the overnight high of 1.5675. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5356. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bears still have downside technical momentum on their side. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $893.80 and then at $900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $880.00 and then just below support at the April low of $876.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $907.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $118.00 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $118.98. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $116.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $115.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $116.41. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Friday, April 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and firmer U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is again stronger in the early going today, on follow-through strength from gains on Wednesday and Thursday. A bullish weekly high close in the U.S. dollar index would be a very early technical clue that the greenback may have finally bottomed out. A bottom in the dollar would be bullish for the U.S. stock indexes and bearish for the commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading, as the bulls are regaining some near-term upside technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,383.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,368.10. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,384.40
1st Support:------ 1,369.75
2nd Support:------ 1,353.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,400.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,415.30
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,914.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,900.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,930.00 and then at Thursday's high of 1,950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,883.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,920.60
1st Support:------ 1,891.20
2nd Support:------ 1,861.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,950.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,979.60
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,800 and then more stops just below support at 12,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,940 and then just above resistance at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,824
1st Support:------ 12,707
2nd Support:------ 12,584
1st Resistance:--- 12,947
2nd Resistance:--- 13,064
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today as the stock indexes are firmer and there ideas U.S. interest rates are near a bottom. Bears have fresh near-term downside technical momentum on their side as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 24/32 and then at the overnight high of 116 3/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 8/32 and then at 115 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 9/32
1st Support:----- 115 12/32
2nd Support:----- 114 22/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 28/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 115.15.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.20.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.17.0
1st Support:------ 114.27.0
2nd Support:------ 114.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.02.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.24.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $909.00 and then at $920.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $899.00 and then just below support at $890.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $907.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a stronger close in the index today would begin to give the bulls some fresh near-term upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.60 and then at 73.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.05 and then at Wednesday's low of 71.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.64. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The June Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5684 and then more stops just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5800 and then at the overnight high of 1.5858. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5636. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $118.30 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $118.98. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $117.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $116.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $116.41. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were firmer and wheat was lower. Traders will closely examine today's weekly USDA export sales data. The key "outside markets" are bearishly postured for the grains early today. Gold and crude oil are lower and the U.S. dollar is solidly higher. That should limit the upside in grains in the early going today. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states, which is still deemed overall bullish for corn but slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat.
Thursday, April 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is stronger in the early going today, on follow-through strength from gains on Wednesday. If today's gains in the greenback hold up by the end of the day, then the U.S. currency will have shown the rare ability to appreciate for two trading sessions in a row. That would give the dollar bulls some fresh upside momentum. And a weekly high close in the greenback on Friday would provide the dollar bulls even more upside technical momentum. We'll see.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading, as the bulls are fading after recent strong gains.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,368.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,358.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,382.70 and then at this month's high of 1,398.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,380.40
1st Support:------ 1,371.35
2nd Support:------ 1,364.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,387.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,396.60
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,882.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,872.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,922.00 and then at 1,950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,866.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,904.90
1st Support:------ 1,889.85
2nd Support:------ 1,874.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,920.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,935.70
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,700 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 12,655. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,800 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 12,845. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,654
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,760
1st Support:------ 12,688
2nd Support:------ 12,628
1st Resistance:--- 12,820
2nd Resistance:--- 12,892
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today as the stock indexes are weaker. Bears have some near-term technical momentum on their side as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 10/32 and then at this week's high of 117 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 20/32 and then at this week's low of 116 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 31/32
1st Support:----- 116 9/32
2nd Support:----- 115 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 9/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 116.17.5 and then at 116.25.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.27.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.04.0
1st Support:------ 115.24.0
2nd Support:------ 115.15.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.13.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.25.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 72.15 and then at this week's high of 72.27. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.53 and then at Tuesday's contract low of 71.05. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 71.86. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5850 and then more stops just below support at 1.5800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5964 and then at the contract high of 1.5985. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5864. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $915.00 and then at $920.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $907.30 and then just below support at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $907.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight contract high of $118.33 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $118.98. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $117.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $116.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $116.41. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Corn and wheat were weaker and soybeans slightly higher. The key "outside markets" are bearishly postured for the grains early today. Gold and crude oil are lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states, which is still deemed overall bullish for corn but slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat.
Wednesday, April 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes and firmer U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that with crude oil prices trading just below $120.00 a barrel, prices are due for a significant downside correction soon. I think it's unlikely crude will be able to hold prices at such lofty levels for very long, without some major new bullish fundamental development occurring.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading, as the bulls are fading after recent strong gains.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,370.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,358.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,386.50 and then at this month's high of 1,398.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,380.60
1st Support:------ 1,371.05
2nd Support:------ 1,361.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,390.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,399.90
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,882.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,872.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,902.50 and then at this week's high of 1,922.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,866.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,894.70
1st Support:------ 1,872.35
2nd Support:------ 1,849.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,917.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,939.70
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,655 and then more stops just below support at 12,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,790 and then just above resistance at this week's high of 12,845. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,654
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,727
1st Support:------ 12,664
2nd Support:------ 12,592
1st Resistance:--- 12,799
2nd Resistance:--- 12,862
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Bears have some near-term technical momentum on their side as downtrend lines are still in place on the daily bar charts.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 18/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 5/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 5/32
1st Support:----- 116 23/32
2nd Support:----- 116 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 7/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 116.17.5 and then at 116.25.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.03.5 and then more sell stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 115.30.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.09.0
1st Support:------ 116.00.0
2nd Support:------ 115.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.19.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.28.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, as bulls cannot put together two solid up-days in a row. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.15 and then at this week's high of 72.27. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.67 and then at last week's low of 71.51. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.13. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5800 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 1.5757. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the contract high of 1.5946 and then at 1.6000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5751. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $925.40 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $914.40 and then just below support at $909.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $926.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit another fresh all-time high overnight. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight contract high of $117.20 and then just above resistance at $118.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $116.25, and then more sell stops just below support at $115.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $114.15. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to higher in overnight trading. Corn and beans were higher and wheat slightly lower. Bulls are fading in the grains. However, the "Turnaround Tuesday" phenomenon could support the grain markets today. The key "outside markets" are bullishly postured for the grains early today. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states, which is still deemed overall bullish for corn but slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat.
Tuesday, April 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is again higher crude oil prices that hit another record high above $118.00 a barrel overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early dealings.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index is on the verge of setting a fresh contract and all-time low. If the index does move to a new low, that would be a fresh bearish technical clue to suggest another leg down in the greenback in the near term. However, if recent history repeats itself, the dollar index will post a solid rebound in the coming day or two, to continue the sideways trading range at lower price levels that has been in place for weeks.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning trading, as the bulls are fading a bit after recent strong gains.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 1,381.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,370.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 1,394.00 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,387.80
1st Support:------ 1,381.55
2nd Support:------ 1,374.80
1st Resistance:--- 1,394.55
2nd Resistance:--- 1,400.80
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,885.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1,922.00 and then at 1,940.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,866.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,910.10
1st Support:------ 1,898.20
2nd Support:------ 1,882.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,898.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,937.85
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,752 and then more stops just below support at 12,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 12,845 and then just above resistance at last week's high of 12,899. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,654
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,802
1st Support:------ 12,758
2nd Support:------ 12,709
1st Resistance:--- 12,851
2nd Resistance:--- 12,895
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum on their side as downtrend lines have formed on the daily bar chart.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 even and then at the overnight high of 117 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the 116 16/32 and then at this week's low of 116 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 24/32
1st Support:----- 116 11/32
2nd Support:----- 115 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 25/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.08.0 and then at the overnight high of 116.15.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 115.29.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.08.0
1st Support:------ 115.31.0
2nd Support:------ 115.24.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.18.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.27.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, as bulls cannot put together two solid up-days in a row. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.27 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.82 and then at last week's low of 71.51. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.13. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5800 and then more stops just below support at the overnight low of 1.5757. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5880 and then at 1.5900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5751. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $925.90 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $918.00 and then just below support at $909.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $939.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit another fresh all-time high overnight. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight contract high of $116.84 and then just above resistance at $117.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $115.86, and then more sell stops just below support at $115.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $113.88. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are bullishly postured early today, which means early dips may be seen by bulls as buying opportunities. Grain traders are still watching weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states, which is still deemed overall bullish for corn but slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat.
Monday, April 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices that hit another record high above $117.00 a barrel overnight. The U.S. dollar has also resumed its weaker ways.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
U.S. Treasury bulls have seen serious near-term technical damage inflicted in T-Bonds and T-Notes recently, and need to step up and show solid power early this week. If not, technical odds will quickly build that a more protracted downtrend in prices will take hold of the markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning trading, on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,375.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's low of 1,370.30. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,394.00 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,370.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,385.40
1st Support:------ 1,372.80
2nd Support:------ 1,357.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,400.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,413.10
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,882.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 1,871.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,909.00 and then at Friday's high of 1,916.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,864.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,896.70
1st Support:------ 1,877.35
2nd Support:------ 1,851.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,922.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,941.70
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,729 and then more stops just below support at 12,663. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 12,899 and then just above resistance at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,654
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,831
1st Support:------ 12,764
2nd Support:------ 12,717
1st Resistance:--- 12,878
2nd Resistance:--- 12,945
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today, on a short-covering bounce from recent losses. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 28/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the 116 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 116 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 10/32
1st Support:----- 115 18/32
2nd Support:----- 114 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 29/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.16.0 and then just above resistance at 116.26.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 115.29.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.00.0
1st Support:------ 115.13.0
2nd Support:------ 114.22.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.23.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.10.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but a bullish weekly high close in the index would provide the bulls with some fresh momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 72.66 and then at 73.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 72.00 and then at this week's low of 71.51. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5700 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 1.5620. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5800 and then at 1.5900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5751. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $930.00 and then at $935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $923.00 and then just below support at this week's low of $917.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $939.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $114.00 and then just above resistance at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $113.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $112.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $109.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Look for a down day today in the grains. The key "outside markets" are bearishly postured. The U.S. dollar is higher and gold and crude prices are lower. For corn, weather in the Corn Belt is turning more bullish, due to delayed spring field work. The weather in the Corn Belt is also bearish for beans, on ideas some intended corn acres may go to soybeans because of the weather.
Friday, April 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures and weaker U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is stronger early today, and will probably see more short covering heading into the weekend. That suggests the commodity market bulls will not have a good day today.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading. Bulls have gained solid upside near-term technical momentum late this week.
June S&P 500: Prices hit a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,380.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1,370.30. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,365.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,368.45
1st Support:------ 1,362.60
2nd Support:------ 1,352.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,378.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,383.95
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,871.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,850.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the April high of 1,894.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,810.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,857.70
1st Support:------ 1,843.35
2nd Support:------ 1,819.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,881.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,895.70
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,729 and then more stops just below support at 12,663. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,800 and then just above resistance at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,892
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,627
1st Support:------ 12,591
2nd Support:------ 12,524
1st Resistance:--- 12,694
2nd Resistance:--- 12,730
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Bears this week have gained fresh downside near-term technical momentum as the stock market has seen a significant late-week rally.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 1/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 30/32
1st Support:----- 116 12/32
2nd Support:----- 115 28/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 14/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 even
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.00.0 and then just above resistance at 116.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.24.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 116.14.0
1st Support:------ 116.01.0
2nd Support:------ 115.23.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 117.05.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 72.32 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the Wednesday's low of 71.51 and then at the contract low of 71.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.11. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading and did poke to a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5800 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 1.5715. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight contract high of 1.5946 and then at 1.6000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5751. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $956.20 and then at $960.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $940.00 and then just below support at the overnight low of $935.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $939.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today, and did set another fresh all-time high overnight. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight contract and all-time high of $115.54 and then just above resistance at $116.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $114.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $113.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $113.01. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" were bullishly postured overnight. However, the dollar is firmer and gold and crude are weakening as of this writing, which is likely to limit the upside in early trading today. Traders will scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. For corn, weather in the Corn Belt is bullish, due to delayed spring field work. The weather in the Corn Belt is also bearish for beans, on ideas some intended corn acres may go to soybeans because of the weather.
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