|
Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
Interested in advertising on TraderBlog.com?
Click here for more information.
|
|
The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« April 2008 |
Main
| June 2008 »
May 2008 Archives
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $129.00 and then just above resistance at $130.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $127.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $126.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $129.60. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bulls have regained some near-term technical momentum this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.29 and then at 73.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.95 and then at 72.52. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.21. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5450 and then just below support at 1.5400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5550 and then at 1.5600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5532. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from recent losses. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $890.00 and then at $900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $880.00 and then at $875.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $902.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to lower in overnight trading. Chart damage was inflicted in corn Thursday, but I would not be surprised to see buyers step into that market today. Wheat continues fully bearish and soybeans are choppy but with a weak technical undertone now. Weekly USDA export sales data are out this morning due to the U.S. holiday Monday.
Friday, May 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is the last trading day of the week and the last trading day of the month. Today is a very important day for markets, from a technical perspective. Any markets that close at a monthly and/or weekly high close will gain technical strength. Any markets that close at a monthly and/or weekly low close will suffer at last a bit of technical damage. Funds may be more active today as they do some book-squaring to end the month.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. The bulls this week have regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,395.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Thursday's low of 1,386.70. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,407.00 and then at 1,415.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,407.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,397.20
1st Support:------ 1,387.35
2nd Support:------ 1,376.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,407.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,417.50
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,023.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 2,000.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the May high of 2,055.00 and then at 2,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,015.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,018.70
1st Support:------ 2,004.35
2nd Support:------ 1,985.70
1st Resistance:--- 2,037.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,051.70
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,550 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,490. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,700 and then just above resistance at Thursday's high of 12,722. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,714
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,632
1st Support:------ 12,542
2nd Support:------ 12,460
1st Resistance:--- 12,714
2nd Resistance:--- 12,804
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today, on a tepid short-covering bounce from recent losses. Price action this week has seen bearish downside breakouts from trading ranges in both bonds and notes. Bears still have downside technical momentum.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 11/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 30/32 and then at 113 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 3/32
1st Support:----- 113 8/32
2nd Support:----- 112 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 20/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 114.05.5 and then above resistance at 114.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.21.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.22.0
1st Support:------ 113.05.0
2nd Support:------ 112.20.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.07.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.24.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is higher again in early trading today. Bulls are regaining some near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.05 and then at 73.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.52 and then at 72.18. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls are fading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5534 and then just below support at 1.5500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5600 and then at the overnight high of 1.5653. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5532. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. Bears have fresh downside technical momentum. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at the overnight high of $903.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week's low of $888.30 and then at $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $880.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $131.00 and then just above resistance at $132.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $129.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $128.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $126.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower again in overnight trading, amid bearish "outside markets" again today. Same story in grains: Traders will continue to focus on the key outside markets--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar. Weekly USDA export sales data, usually out this morning, is out Friday morning because of the U.S. holiday Monday.
Thursday, May 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading again today are lower gold and crude oil prices, and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The crude oil market made a strong comeback by the close Wednesday, after trading solidly lower earlier in the session. For crude, it's still a "buy the dip" mentality among traders. Two strong down days in a row in the crude oil market will be the first significant sign of a market top--and that has not occurred yet.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning trading. Trading has turned choppy, with bulls and bears back on a level near-term technical playing field.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,388.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,377.80. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,395.70 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,398.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,387.55
1st Support:------ 1,381.80
2nd Support:------ 1,372.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,397.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,403.05
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,001.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday's low of 1,983.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,015.25 and then at 2,030.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,001.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,998.75
1st Support:------ 1,989.25
2nd Support:------ 1,973.50
1st Resistance:--- 2,014.50
2nd Resistance:--- 2,024.00
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,550 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,490. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,672 and then just above resistance at 12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,714
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,565
1st Support:------ 12,524
2nd Support:------ 12,450
1st Resistance:--- 12,639
2nd Resistance:--- 12,680
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Price action Wednesday saw bearish downside breakouts from trading ranges in both bonds and notes. Bears have fresh downside technical momentum.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 114 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 114 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 3/32 and then at 113 31/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 even
1st Support:----- 114 3/32
2nd Support:----- 113 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 12/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 113.24.0 and then above resistance at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.14.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 113.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.10.0
1st Support:------ 113.20.0
2nd Support:------ 113.08.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.22.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.12.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.70 and then at 73.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 72.50 and then at the overnight low of 72.18. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.73. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5625 and then just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5700 and then at 1.5750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5708. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at the overnight high of $909.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $888.30 and then at $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $880.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $127.00 and then just above resistance at $128.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $125.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $124.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $126.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid bearish "outside markets." Grain traders will continue to focus on the key outside markets--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar. As we head into summer, grain traders will keep a closer watch on the weather forecasts during the growing season for U.S. corn and soybean crops. Right now, the weather in the Corn Belt is benign for corn and beans, but that is likely to change at some point soon.
Wednesday, May 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are sharply lower gold and crude oil prices, and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As of early this morning, crude oil futures were under strong selling pressure after a big down day on Tuesday. A sharply lower close in crude oil futures today would spook the bulls--especially the weak-handed longs, which would likely then exacerbate selling pressure on Thursday. Trading the rest of this week will be extra important for the crude oil market, which in turn will be important for other commodity markets, given that crude has been a key "outside market" for many commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Trading has turned choppy, with bulls and bears back on a level near-term technical playing field.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,380.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at last week's low of 1,372.40. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,398.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,381.75
1st Support:------ 1,376.00
2nd Support:------ 1,367.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,390.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,396.25
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,987.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,965.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,010.00 and then at 2,025.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,001.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,982.85
1st Support:------ 1,967.70
2nd Support:------ 1,942.35
1st Resistance:--- 2,008.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,023.35
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,440. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,600 and then just above resistance at 12,672. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,714
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,521
1st Support:------ 12,472
2nd Support:------ 12,391
1st Resistance:--- 12,602
2nd Resistance:--- 12,651
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady in early trading today. Trading is still choppy and still in a sideways range on the daily bar chart. Neither the bulls nor the bears have any strong near-term technical advantage at present.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 28/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 13/32 and then at 115 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 2/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 1/32
1st Support:----- 115 5/32
2nd Support:----- 114 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 17/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 13/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.31.5 and then above resistance at 115.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday's low of 114.21.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.15.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.00.0
1st Support:------ 114.15.0
2nd Support:------ 114.03.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.12.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.29.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.34 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.91 and then at 71.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5710 and then just below support at 1.5650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5804 and then at 1.5850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5708. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $930.60 and then at last week's high of $935.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $920.00 and then at $914.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $914.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $134.00 and then just above resistance at $135.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $131.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $130.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $129.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are in an overall bullish posture to start the week. As we head into summer, grain traders will keep a closer watch on the weather forecasts during the growing season for U.S. corn and soybean crops.
Tuesday, May 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock indexes and Treasuries, amid higher crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar is at present teetering on embarking upon a fresh, solid leg down in value against the other major currencies. Trading this week will be extra important for the greenback. The dollar bulls can argue the U.S. dollar index is presently close to the low price levels that have stopped declines in recent months. But a drop below those key lows would produce serious chart damage to suggest a new wave of selling pressure against the dollar.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to weaker in early morning trading. Bears still have some fresh downside technical momentum, amid record high crude oil prices that have sapped consumer confidence.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,360.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,350.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,379.70 and then at 1,388.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,347.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,380.55
1st Support:------ 1,365.90
2nd Support:------ 1,358.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,388.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,402.75
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at last week's low of 1,954.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 1,923.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,969.90 and then at 1,981.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,913.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,957.90
1st Support:------ 1,946.35
2nd Support:------ 1,934.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,969.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,981.40
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,400 and then more stops just below support at 12,350. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,500 and then just above resistance at 12,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,240
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,504
1st Support:------ 12,429
2nd Support:------ 12,386
1st Resistance:--- 12,547
2nd Resistance:--- 12,622
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today. Trading is still choppy and still in a sideways range on the daily bar chart. Neither the bulls nor the bears have any strong near-term technical advantage at present.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 116 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 5/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 15/32
1st Support:----- 116 1/32
2nd Support:----- 115 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 24/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.17.5 and then above resistance at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.02.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.06.0
1st Support:------ 114.27.0
2nd Support:------ 114.04.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.29.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.08.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are in a bullish posture again early today. Trading may be more active in the grains today, as traders get positioned or even positions heading into a long U.S. holiday weekend.
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.37 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 71.93 and then at 71.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5678 and then just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at this week's high of 1.5796 and then at 1.5850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5708. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $930.00 and then at this week's high of $935.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $920.00 and then at the overnight low of $914.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $914.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $134.00 and then just above resistance at $135.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $130.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $129.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $129.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Friday, May 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher crude oil prices on a quick rebound from Thursday's sell off.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It's Friday and a long holiday weekend awaits us in the U.S. So let's change gears and have a bit of fun, by me challenging you with a question. If you answer the question below correctly, I'll send you my e-book called "62 Rules Used by Profitable Futures Traders" (a $19.95 value). Here's the two-part question: First part: What is the name of the of the famed T-Bond futures trader who struck it rich in Chicago during the 1980s? (Hint: He owns a spacious lodge in Michigan.) Second part: In what way did other traders in the T-bond pit signal to their own trading desks on the floor that this particular famed trader was making trades? You can email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com with your answer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Bears have gained some fresh downside technical momentum, amid the crude oil spike that is sapping consumer confidence. I still look for choppy trading conditions in the stock indexes for at least the near term.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the May low of 1,379.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,370.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,395.20 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,407.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,394.30
1st Support:------ 1,389.10
2nd Support:------ 1,385.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,398.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,403.60
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week's low of 1,954.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 1,923.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,969.50 and then at Thursday's high of 1,981.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,992.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,968.70
1st Support:------ 1,955.85
2nd Support:------ 1,945.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,979.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,992.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,595 and then more stops just below support at 12,550. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,700 and then just above resistance at 12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,787
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,628
1st Support:------ 12,583
2nd Support:------ 12,551
1st Resistance:--- 12,660
2nd Resistance:--- 12,705
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Trading is choppy and still in a sideways range on the daily bar chart. Bonds and notes will continue to generally trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at 116 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 20/32 and then at Thursday's low of 115 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 6/32
1st Support:----- 115 1/32
2nd Support:----- 114 8/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 4/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.08.0 and then above resistance at 115.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.15.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.01.0
1st Support:------ 114.08.0
2nd Support:------ 113.24.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.17.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.10.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today and hit a fresh contract and record high of $135.09 overnight. It looks like a blow-off top is under way in crude oil. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $136.00 and then just above resistance at $137.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $133.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $132.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $129.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.20 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.93 and then at 71.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The June Euro is near steady in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5700 and then just below support at 1.5650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5796 and then at 1.5850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5708. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today after hitting a fresh four-week high overnight. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $935.40 and then at $940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $920.00 and then at $915.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $914.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Traders will examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. But more importantly, grain traders will continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are in a bullish posture again early today. The funds are poised to produce a fresh influx of cash into the grain markets, with crude oil prices now pushing above $135.00 a barrel.
Thursday, May 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices that pushed above $135.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Have you listened to the recent growing chorus of Congress members in Washington blasting speculators in commodity markets? Crude oil's spike to a record high recently is the catalyst for the present commotion in Washington. At a hearing this week a Commodity Futures Trading Commission official was grilled and lectured about the speculation that legislators blame for rising commodity prices. While the legislators' fears about speculators in markets are mostly unfounded, my bias is that the U.S. Congress will pressure the CFTC to come up with some new rules for trading markets. Key will be if any new rules will be actually significant or just cosmetic. It could be increases in margin money for trading futures, or new government regulations on the swap derivatives market. Any significant rules changes to trading commodity markets will be a significantly bearish development that could even put in market tops in many commodities. If I were a big hedge fund manager that was right now holding a bunch of long crude oil futures positions, the rhetoric coming from Congress would have me at least a bit jittery, if not downright spooked. Traders, remember this: History has shown that during major bull runs in commodity futures markets, it can be a change in the rules to trading those markets that puts in major price tops.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to weaker in early morning trading. Bulls are fading badly, amid the crude oil spike that is sapping consumer confidence. I still look for choppy trading conditions for at least the near term.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,388.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the May low of 1,379.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,399.20 and then at 1,410.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,408.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,400.80
1st Support:------ 1,380.65
2nd Support:------ 1,368.40
1st Resistance:--- 1,413.05
2nd Resistance:--- 1,433.20
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,954.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the May low of 1,923.25. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,973.50 and then at 2,000.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,993.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,979.20
1st Support:------ 1,939.35
2nd Support:------ 1,914.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,004.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,044.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,575 and then more stops just below support at 12,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,700 and then just above resistance at 12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,788
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,685
1st Support:------ 12,509
2nd Support:------ 12,400
1st Resistance:--- 12,794
2nd Resistance:--- 12,970
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Trading is still in a sideways range on the daily bar chart. Bonds and notes will continue to generally trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 even and then at the overnight high of 117 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 22/32 and then at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 2/32
1st Support:----- 116 21/32
2nd Support:----- 116 7/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 29/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 115.16.0 and then above resistance at the overnight high of 115.26.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.23.0
1st Support:------ 115.13.0
2nd Support:------ 115.03.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.01.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.11.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.60 and then at 73.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 72.00 and then at 71.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5700 and then just below support at 1.5650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5753 and then at 1.5800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5708. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $927.70 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $920.00 and then at the overnight low of $918.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $914.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh contract and record high of $130.47 overnight. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $131.00 and then just above resistance at $132.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $129.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $128.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $126.60. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are in a bullish posture again early today. The funds could be poised to produce a fresh influx of cash into the grain markets, with crude oil prices now pushing above $130.00 a barrel.
Wednesday, May 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices that pushed above $130.00 a barrel, amid a lower U.S. dollar again today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I've been producing this morning report, called a blog report by many, for over two years now. I did not know how the report would be received by traders, amid the seemingly over-abundance of blog reports out there in cyberspace. I have been pleasantly surprised to see my morning report continue to grow in popularity. I have to admit that two years ago when I started this morning blog, I was not real excited about adding one more chore to my already-busy daily schedule. However, the feedback I have received from you the past two years has kept me enthusiastic about writing my morning report every day. But now my charge is to make my morning report better. That's where I need your help. Please tell me what you like or what you don't like about my report. Don't be bashful. And you won't hurt my feelings. What needs to be added or discontinued in my morning report? Your feedback is greatly valued and will help me make my report even more valuable to you. Please email me your thoughts at jim@jimwyckoff.com. Thanks, in advance. Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Bulls are fading. I look for choppy trading conditions for at least the near term.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,409.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,400.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,420.90 and then at 1,430.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,412.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,418.60
1st Support:------ 1,407.80
2nd Support:------ 1,398.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,428.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,439.00
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 1,990.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,975.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,013.50 and then at Tuesday's high of 2,024.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,007.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,007.90
1st Support:------ 1,991.60
2nd Support:------ 1,973.70
1st Resistance:--- 2,025.80
2nd Resistance:--- 2,042.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 12,875 and then more stops just below support at 12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 12,965 and then just above resistance at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,935
1st Support:------ 12,905
2nd Support:------ 12,845
1st Resistance:--- 12,995
2nd Resistance:--- 13,025
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady in early trading today. Bulls have gained some fresh near-term technical momentum this week. Bonds will continue to generally trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 14/32 and then at 117 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 31/32 and then at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 25/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 even
1st Support:----- 116 21/32
2nd Support:----- 116 even
1st Resistance:-- 117 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 even
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.02.0 and then above resistance at the May high of 116.13.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of 115.12.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.23.0
1st Support:------ 115.13.0
2nd Support:------ 114.30.0
1st Resistance:--- 116.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.16.0
GOLD
Gold is slightly higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $910.20 and then at Monday's high of $914.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $903.10 and then at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $901.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 73.00 and then at the overnight high of 73.13. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.50 and then at 72.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The June Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5600 and then just below support at 1.5550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5667 and then at 1.5700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5708. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $127.47 and then just above resistance at $128.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $126.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $125.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $125.12. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Planting progress in corn did accelerate last week, but not as much as many expected and that is friendly for corn today. Grain traders will also continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are in a mostly bullish posture early today.
Tuesday, May 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly lower U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Grain traders, have you ever heard of the "Voice from the Tomb" phenomenon in the grain trading pits in Chicago? If not and you want to find out about it, you can send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com. Trading lore fascinates me because most of the sayings and phenomena have merit.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side, but I look for choppy trading conditions for at least the near term.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,414.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,410.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,429.40 and then at Monday's high of 1,440.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,412.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,430.85
1st Support:------ 1,421.00
2nd Support:------ 1,412.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,439.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,449.55
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 2,009.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,994.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,035.00 and then at Monday's high of 2,055.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,007.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,029.70
1st Support:------ 2,004.35
2nd Support:------ 1,983.70
1st Resistance:--- 2,050.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,075.70
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 12,963 and then more stops just below support at 12,895. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,100 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of 13,140. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,049
1st Support:------ 12,959
2nd Support:------ 12,872
1st Resistance:--- 13,136
2nd Resistance:--- 13,226
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady in early trading today. Trading is still choppy and in a range. Bonds will continue to generally trade in an inverse relationship with the U.S. stock market.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 28/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 16/32 and then at 116 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 18/32
1st Support:----- 116 5/32
2nd Support:----- 115 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 17/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.18.5 and then above resistance at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.08.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.11.0
1st Support:------ 115.04.0
2nd Support:------ 114.23.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.31.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today and hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.03 and then at 73.30. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.66 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.20. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5538 and then just below support at 1.5500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5612 and then at 1.5650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5620. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today, and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $920.00 and then at $925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $902.60 and then at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $901.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today and near record highs above $127.00. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $128.00 and then just above resistance at $129.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $127.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $126.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $125.12. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to lower in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were lower and wheat was firmer. Grain traders will also continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are in a bullish posture early today. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has turned drier and warmer, and that's bearish for corn and soybeans.
Monday, May 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices that have pushed above $127.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As the U.S. dollar teeters and a fresh leg down in prices this week, the gold bulls have made a strong recovery and pushed prices back above $900.00 an ounce. Gold bulls have regained solid upside near-term technical momentum the past two trading sessions. And if the dollar continues to weaken this week, you'll likely see commodity prices rally, led by crude oil and gold.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side after bullish weekly, or near weekly, high closes on Friday.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Friday's low of 1,414.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,410.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week's high of 1,429.50 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,412.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,423.35
1st Support:------ 1,417.20
2nd Support:------ 1,408.55
1st Resistance:--- 1,432.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,438.15
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,025.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 2,012.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 2,041.00 and then at 2,050.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,007.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,029.00
1st Support:------ 2,016.50
2nd Support:------ 1,999.50
1st Resistance:--- 2,046.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,058.50
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,940 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 12,895. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday's high of 13,015 and then just above resistance at this month's high of 13,120. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is even with the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,964
1st Support:------ 12,914
2nd Support:------ 12,844
1st Resistance:--- 13,034
2nd Resistance:--- 13,084
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy and in a range.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 30/32 and then at 117 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 116 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 19/32
1st Support:----- 115 25/32
2nd Support:----- 115 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 4/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.19.0 and then above resistance at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.04.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 115.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.09.0
1st Support:------ 114.25.0
2nd Support:------ 114.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.24.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.08.0
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.48 and then at 73.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.20 and then at 73.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 74.21. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5400 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5340. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5500 and then at this week's high of 1.5547. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5537. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at $910.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $880.50 and then at $875.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $901.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply higher early today and hit another fresh all-time high above $127.00 in early trading today. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $128.00 and then just above resistance at $129.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $126.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $125.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $124.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain traders will also continue to focus on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, gold and the value of the U.S. dollar today. These outside markets are solidly in a bullish posture early today. Grains could see a big upside day today, if the outside markets stay fully bullish.
|
