Name: Jim Wyckoff 
Crude Oil Sharply Higher Early
Friday, May 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharply higher crude oil prices that have pushed to another record high above $127.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It's "make or break" time for the U.S. dollar. Prices have been trading sideways for the past month. My bias is that a bigger move in the greenback will occur soon. The direction in which the U.S. dollar index "breaks out" of the recent sideways trading range on the daily bar chart is likely to be the next significant trend in the U.S. dollar.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum late this week and bullish weekly high closes today would provide bulls with even more technical strength.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,419.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,410.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,435.00 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,410.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,418.50
1st Support:------ 1,411.45
2nd Support:------ 1,398.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,431.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,438.70
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 2,015.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 1,994.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,050.00 and then at 2,065.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,996.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,022.60
1st Support:------ 2,007.20
2nd Support:------ 1,978.60
1st Resistance:--- 2,051.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,066.60
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,950 and then more stops just below support at 12,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this month's high of 13,120 and then just above resistance at 13,200. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,952
1st Support:------ 12,904
2nd Support:------ 12,812
1st Resistance:--- 13,044
2nd Resistance:--- 13,092
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to firmer in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 23/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 12/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 116 8/32
1st Support:----- 115 23/32
2nd Support:----- 114 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 24/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.13.5 and then above resistance at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.00.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 114.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 115.03.0
1st Support:------ 114.23.0
2nd Support:------ 114.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.25.0
2nd Resistance:--- 116.05.0
