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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« May 2008 |
Main
| July 2008 »
June 2008 Archives
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early
trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.71 and
then at Friday's high of 72.95. Shorter-term support is
seen at 72.50 and then at the May low of 72.33. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.02.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading.
Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below
technical support at the overnight low of 1.5670 and then
just below support at 1.5650. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.5722 and then at 1.5750. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are
bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.5546. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For August gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of $937.70 and then at the May high of $940.10. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight low of
$927.50 and then at $920.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $914.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today and hit a
new all-time record high of $143.67 overnight. In August
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at the all-time contract high of $143.67 and then just
above resistance at $145.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $140.60 and then
more sell stops just below support at $138.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $139.27.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain bulls are in
command amid recent crop-damaging wet weather in the Corn
Belt and U.S. wheat regions. However, that fundamental news
has already been factored into the market and drier and
warmer weather is in the forecast for those regions. Now,
the key "outside markets" are the bullish driving factor in
the grains—record high crude oil and a recently weaker U.S.
dollar. There are still no strong, early clues of market
tops being close at hand in corn and soybeans.
Monday, June 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is another move overnight to a new all-time record high in
crude oil futures prices, to above $143.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Technically, today is one of the four most important
trading days of the year. It's the last day of the month
and last day of the quarter, and the year is half over.
Monthly, quarterly or semi-yearly high or low closes in a
market would be very technically significant. Also, fund
managers today are likely to be doing some window dressing
or squaring up of books, which could also make for more
active trading.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning
trading, on mild follow-through pressure from strong
downside price action to multi-month lows last week. Solid
near-term price downtrends are in place in the stock
indexes. Bears are in firm control.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at Friday’s low of 1,273.00.
Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell
stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at
1,270.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at the overnight high of 1,287.10 and then at
Friday’s high of 1,291.60. Buy stops are likely located
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1,298.25.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,281.55
1st Support:------ 1,271.50
2nd Support:------ 1,262.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,290.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,300.15
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
support is located at the overnight low of 1,853.00. Sell
stops likely reside just below that level, and then more
sell stops are likely located just below technical support
at 1,835.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen
at Friday’s high of 1,877.75 and then at 1,895.00. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1,895.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,859.50
1st Support:------ 1,841.25
2nd Support:------ 1,816.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,884.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,902.25
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support
at 11,350 and then more stops just below support at 11,300.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical
resistance at 11,400 and then just above resistance at
11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
11,634
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,373
1st Support:------ 11,272
2nd Support:------ 11,186
1st Resistance:--- 11,459
2nd Resistance:--- 11,560
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly higher
in early trading today. Bulls have regained solid upside
near-term technical momentum. The recently weaker stock
market is helping them out.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies
at the overnight high of 116 even and then at 116 8/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 115 16/32 and then at the
overnight low of 115 2/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
114 14/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 17/32
1st Support:----- 114 31/32
2nd Support:----- 114 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 25/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely
reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at
114.00.0 and then above resistance at the overnight high of
114.05.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell
stop orders are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 113.22.5 and then at 113.16.0. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
113.01.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.28.0
1st Support:------ 113.16.0
2nd Support:------ 113.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.18.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.95 and then at Thursday's high of 73.40. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.65 and then at the June low of 72.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.47. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5658 and then just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5723 and then at the June high of 1.5763. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5534. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $927.80 and then at $930.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $920.00 and then at the overnight low of $912.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $907.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today and hit a new all-time record high overnight. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the all-time contract high of $142.26 and then just above resistance at $143.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $140.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $138.61. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $138.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain bulls are in command amid fresh crop-damaging rains hit the Corn Belt and U.S. wheat regions. It's still a major weather market in the grains. "Outside markets" today are also bullish--higher crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar. There are no strong, early clues of market tops being close at hand in the grains.
Friday, June 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is another move overnight to a new all-time record high in crude oil futures prices, to above $142.00 a barrel.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
U.S. consumer confidence is flagging amid record-high gasoline prices at the pump and amid significant food price inflation. My bias is that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and a serious one at that. That's bearish for the stock market and bullish for U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes. The most important market for all traders to watch right now is the U.S. dollar's value versus the other major currencies. If the dollar continues to sink, so will stock index prices, while at the same time crude oil prices will likely continue to appreciate. Next on the horizon could be coordinated central bank intervention to boost the U.S. dollar's value.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning trading, on follow-through pressure from strong downside price action to multi-month lows on Thursday. Solid near-term price downtrends are in place in the stock indexes. Bears are in firm control.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,275.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,270.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,291.60 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,302.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,296.90
1st Support:------ 1,271.05
2nd Support:------ 1,257.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,310.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,336.10
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,835.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,877.75 and then at 1,895.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,895.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,887.25
1st Support:------ 1,841.75
2nd Support:------ 1,817.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,912.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,957.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,400 and then more stops just below support at 11,350. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,500 and then just above resistance at 11,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,634
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,539
1st Support:------ 11,373
2nd Support:------ 11,284
1st Resistance:--- 11,628
2nd Resistance:--- 11,794
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries and the weaker stock market is helping them out.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the 115 8/32 and then at the June high of 115 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 27/32 and then at 114 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 29/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 18/32
1st Support:----- 113 31/32
2nd Support:----- 113 4/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 even
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.27.5 and then above resistance at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.16.5 and then at 113.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.25.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 113.11.0
1st Support:------ 112.29.0
2nd Support:------ 112.06.0
1st Resistance:--- 114.02.0
2nd Resistance:--- 114.16.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.40 and then at 73.60. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.98 and then at the June low of 72.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.64. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5600 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.5568. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5666 and then at 1.5720. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at $910.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $890.00 and then at the overnight low of $886.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $894.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $136.00 and then just above resistance at $137.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $133.68 and then more sell stops just below support at $132.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $136.06. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain bulls are back in business after more crop-damaging rains hit the Corn Belt and U.S. wheat regions the past 48 hours. It's once again a weather market in the grains. "Outside markets" today are also bullish--firmer crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Thursday, June 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Traders: It's important to take note of how a market closes each day. The most important price of the day is not the opening price, nor the high, nor the low. The closing price is most important. Low-range daily (or weekly or monthly) closes are bearish and high-range daily (or weekly or monthly) closes are bullish. High- or low-range daily closes can set the tone for early price action the next trading day.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning trading, amid solid near-term price downtrends in place in the stock indexes. Bears are in control.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,313.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at this week's low of 1,305.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,322.70 and then at 1,327.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,331.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,325.00
1st Support:------ 1,312.45
2nd Support:------ 1,302.30
1st Resistance:--- 1,335.15
2nd Resistance:--- 1,347.70
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,916.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,895.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,932.75 and then at 1,950.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,938.75
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,935.25
1st Support:------ 1,910.50
2nd Support:------ 1,888.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,957.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,981.75
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week's low of 11,720 and then more stops just below support at 11,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,850 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,915. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,953
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,836
1st Support:------ 11,756
2nd Support:------ 11,706
1st Resistance:--- 11,886
2nd Resistance:--- 11,966
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to weaker in early trading today. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but still have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the 114 even and then at the overnight high of 114 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 23/32 and then at 113 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 26/32
1st Support:----- 113 9/32
2nd Support:----- 112 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 17/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.00.5 and then above resistance at this week's high of 113.04.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.21.0 and then at 112.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.21.0
1st Support:------ 112.06.0
2nd Support:------ 111.21.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.21.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.72 and then at Tuesday's high of 73.93. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.50 and then at Tuesday's low of 73.38. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5472 and then just below support at Tuesday's low of 1.5426. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5539 and then at this week's high of 1.5570. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $892.90 and then at Tuesday's high of $896.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $885.80 and then at $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $894.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $138.00 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $138.75. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $136.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $135.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $137.18. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday's declines. Grain bulls are fading amid profit-taking pressure and more favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt. "Outside markets" today are neutral--near-steady crude oil and a steady U.S. dollar. My bias is that the downside is limited in corn and soybeans, as the calendar starts to turn to the critical growing month of July for corn and soybeans.
Wednesday, June 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher U.S. stock index futures on a corrective bounce from recent downside pressure.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
After trading in synchronicity for months, gold and crude oil have become disconnected the past few weeks. This is a bearish signal for gold and also a very early bearish clue for crude oil and the rest of the raw commodity markets. Gold is still tracking the value of the dollar very closely and usually trading in an inverse fashion to the greenback.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading, on short covering from recent declines. Solid near-term price downtrends are still in place in the stock indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,314.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,305.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,327.70 and then at 1,333.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,330.80.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,316.25
1st Support:------ 1,304.80
2nd Support:------ 1,294.05
1st Resistance:--- 1,326.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,338.45
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,913.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 1,895.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,936.00 and then at this week's high of 1,950.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,936.50
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,914.20
1st Support:------ 1,892.35
2nd Support:------ 1,873.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,933.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,955.20
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,800 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 11,720. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 11,900 and then just above resistance at 11,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,955
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,811
1st Support:------ 11,722
2nd Support:------ 11,631
1st Resistance:--- 11,902
2nd Resistance:--- 11,991
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today, amid a stronger U.S. stock market. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but still have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the 115 even and then at the overnight high of 114 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 113 24/32 and then at 113 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 29/32
1st Support:----- 113 15/32
2nd Support:----- 112 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance 113.00.0 and then above resistance at Tuesday's high of 113.04.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.20.5 and then at 112.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.24.0
1st Support:------ 112.11.0
2nd Support:------ 111.24.0
1st Resistance:--- 113.11.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.24.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.93 and then at Monday's high of 74.04. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.61 and then at Monday's low of 73.36. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5426 and then just below support at Monday's low of 1.5401. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5514 and then at Monday's high of 1.5570. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $894.60 and then at $900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $884.90 and then at $880.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $894.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $138.75 and then just above resistance at the contract high of $140.42. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $136.42, and then more sell stops just below support at $135.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $137.18. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans were firmer and wheat was weaker. Grain bulls are fading amid profit-taking pressure and more favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt. The "Turnaround Tuesday" phenomenon could support the grains today. "Outside markets" today are bullish--higher crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar. My bias is that the downside is limited in corn and soybeans, as the calendar starts to turn to the critical growing month of July for corn and soybeans.
Tuesday, June 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index futures amid a lackluster U.S. economy and consumer confidence.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Financial market traders are awaiting the outcome of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which begins today and ends Wednesday afternoon with an announcement on U.S. interest rates. Most look for no change in rates, but as usual the wording of the Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement will be closely scrutinized. Flagging U.S. consumer confidence amid $4.00-plus gasoline prices at the pump have smacked the U.S. stock market this summer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning trading, and have hit multi-month lows overnight. Solid near-term price downtrends in the stock indexes have the bears with technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,307.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,300.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,322.60 and then at Monday's high of 1,327.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,330.80.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,320.75
1st Support:------ 1,314.00
2nd Support:------ 1,309.65
1st Resistance:--- 1,325.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,331.85
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,897.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,875.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,921.75 and then at Monday's high of 1,950.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,936.50
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,928.75
1st Support:------ 1,906.75
2nd Support:------ 1,895.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,940.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,962.00
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,750 and then more stops just below support at 11,700. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 11,880 and then just above resistance at 11,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,008
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,840
1st Support:------ 11,801
2nd Support:------ 11,770
1st Resistance:--- 11,871
2nd Resistance:--- 11,910
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today, amid a weaker U.S. stock market. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but still have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 18/32 and then at Monday's high of 113 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 6/32 and then at 113 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 14/32
1st Support:----- 112 31/32
2nd Support:----- 112 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.16.5 and then above resistance at last week's high of 112.24.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.03.5 and then at 112.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.11.0
1st Support:------ 112.02.0
2nd Support:------ 111.28.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.17.0
2nd Resistance:--- 112.26.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today, after trading solidly lower Friday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.90 and then at 74.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 73.50 and then at the overnight low of 73.36. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5432 and then just below support at 1.5400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5500 and then at the overnight high of 1.5570. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week's high of $911.00 and then at the June high of $912.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $900.00 and then at $897.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $909.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $137.50 and then just above resistance at $138.36. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $136.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $135.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $130.06. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Grain bulls are fading amid profit-taking pressure and more favorable growing conditions for corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt.
"Outside markets" today are neutral--higher crude oil and a stronger U.S. dollar. My bias is that the downside is limited in corn and soybeans, as the calendar starts to turn to the critical growing month of July for corn and soybeans.
Monday, June 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil futures prices and a solidly higher U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As most Americans can see in the newspapers and hear from their friends and neighbors, the U.S. economy and consumer sentiment is in bad shape--probably worse than most economists had predicted. This is a bearish omen for the U.S. stock market. My bias has changed from a summer of choppy and sideways price action in the stock indexes, to a summer of sideways to lower price action, as we've seen recently. Such a scenario is also bullish for the U.S. Treasuries market.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading, on a short-covering bounce after solid losses Friday. Near-term price downtrends in the stock indexes still have the bears with the technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,319.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Friday's low of 1,315.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,326.90 and then at 1,332.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,337.20.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,325.95
1st Support:------ 1,308.60
2nd Support:------ 1,298.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,336.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,353.75
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Friday's low of 1,928.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the June low of 1,919.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,963.00 and then at 1,975.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,957.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,954.50
1st Support:------ 1,915.00
2nd Support:------ 1,888.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,981.00
2nd Resistance:--- 2,020.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday's low of 11,815 and then more stops just below support at the March low of 11,770. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,900 and then just above resistance at 11,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,008
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,880
1st Support:------ 11,779
2nd Support:------ 11,715
1st Resistance:--- 11,944
2nd Resistance:--- 12,045
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today, an a corrective pullback after producing bullish weekly high closes on Friday. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but still have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 17/32 and then at 113 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 113 even and then at 112 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 6/32
1st Support:----- 112 27/32
2nd Support:----- 112 7/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 5/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.16.0 and then above resistance at last week's high of 112.24.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 112.05.0 and then at 112.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.11.0
1st Support:------ 112.03.0
2nd Support:------ 111.18.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.04.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply higher early today, on rumors that Israel is planning to bomb Iran's nuclear installations. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $135.00 and then just above resistance at $136.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $133.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $132.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $130.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 73.70 and then at the overnight high of 73.90. Shorter-term support is seen at 73.25 and then at 73.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5500 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.5424. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5600 and then at 1.5650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5562. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is modestly higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $911.00 and then at the June high of $912.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $900.00 and then at the overnight low of $897.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $909.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were slightly lower in overnight trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. However, fully bullish "outside markets" today--sharply higher crude oil and a solidly lower U.S. dollar--should spur at least some buying interest in the grains, especially after the down day on Thursday.
Friday, June 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher crude oil futures prices and a solidly lower U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index is poised to close at a bearish weekly low close as the dollar bears have gained fresh downside technical momentum. The greenback could be on the verge of starting a fresh, stronger leg down in prices. This would have very bullish implications for raw commodity futures prices and bearish implications for the U.S. stock and financial markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are lower in early morning trading. Near-term price downtrends in the stock indexes still have the bears with the technical momentum on their side. Bearish weekly low closes in the stock indexes would provide the bears with more downside momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the April low of 1,329.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,325.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,343.30 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,347.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,341.20
1st Support:------ 1,332.75
2nd Support:------ 1,323.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,350.05
2nd Resistance:--- 1,358.50
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,960.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Thursday's low of 1,944.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,994.00 and then at this week's high of 2,005.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,977.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,978.85
1st Support:------ 1,955.70
2nd Support:------ 1,920.85
1st Resistance:--- 2,013.70
2nd Resistance:--- 2,036.85
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,900 and then more stops just below support at 11,850. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,100 and then just above resistance at 12,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,109
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,046
1st Support:------ 12,978
2nd Support:------ 11,911
1st Resistance:--- 12,113
2nd Resistance:--- 12,181
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today, amid weaker stock indexes. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but still have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 5/32 and then at this week's high of 113 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 17/32 and then at Thursday's low of 112 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 24/32
1st Support:----- 112 7/32
2nd Support:----- 111 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 6/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 29/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 112.17.0 and then above resistance at Thursday's high of 112.24.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 112.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 111.28.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.03.0
1st Support:------ 111.13.0
2nd Support:------ 111.01.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.15.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.05.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 74.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 74.19. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.80 and then at 73.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.67. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5398 and then just below support at 1.5350. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5485 and then at the overnight high of 1.5520. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5497. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is slightly lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $898.10 and then at $900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $888.80 and then at Wednesday's low of $882.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $886.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $137.13 and then just above resistance at $138.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $135.44, and then more sell stops just below support at $134.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $130.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. The question today is, Will traders continue with a "buy the dip" mentality in corn and soybeans? Or, will prices be under pressure all day and possibly on Friday, on a more pronounced downside correction, which is due for corn and beans. The important "outside markets" today--crude oil and the U.S. dollar--are trading near steady. Wheat bulls have benefited from wet harvesting weather in the U.S. wheat regions. However, wheat will remain in a follower's mode in the coming weeks.
Thursday, June 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in overnight/early morning trading today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Here's my brief opinion on several markets: GRAINS: I would not be surprised to see prices trade sideways to lower into the fourth of July weekend, and then see much higher volatility the week after the July 4 holiday weekend. TREASURIES: My bias is that the T-Bonds and T-Notes are near market bottoms. GOLD: More downside price potential as downtrend in place. U.S. DOLLAR: Bulls need to show power very, very soon or the bottom could fall out of the dollar. LIVESTOCK: Live cattle futures have more upside potential even at these higher levels. If cattle continue to rally, hogs will follow. COTTON: Still considered a "value buy" at price levels that are nowhere near historical highs.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Near-term price downtrends in the stock indexes have the bears with the technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the June low of 1,333.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,325.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,350.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,355.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,361.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,343.10
1st Support:------ 1,330.70
2nd Support:------ 1,322.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,351.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,363.60
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,951.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,935.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,975.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,989.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,977.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,967.70
1st Support:------ 1,945.85
2nd Support:------ 1,930.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,983.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,005.20
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 11,995 and then more stops just below support at 11,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,100 and then just above resistance at 12,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,124
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,054
1st Support:------ 12,969
2nd Support:------ 12,909
1st Resistance:--- 12,114
2nd Resistance:--- 12,199
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but still have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 even and then at the overnight high of 113 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112 24/32 and then at 112 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 28/32
1st Support:----- 112 13/32
2nd Support:----- 111 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 112.16.0 and then above resistance at the overnight high of 112.24.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 111.06.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 112.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 112.08.0
1st Support:------ 111.28.0
2nd Support:------ 111.10.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.26.0
2nd Resistance:--- 113.06.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 74.19 and then at 74.31. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.80 and then at 73.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.91. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5394 and then just below support at 1.5350. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at this week's high of 1.5485 and then at 1.5500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5497. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is modestly higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $891.00 and then at this week's high of $897.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $882.50 and then at Tuesday's low of $876.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $886.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $135.00 and then just above resistance at $136.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $133.16, and then more sell stops just below support at $132.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $130.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to higher in overnight trading. While the weather in the Corn Belt has been bullish for corn and soybeans, the flooding may now be factored into the price structure after the recent strong rallies in corn and beans. However, traders still seem to be favoring a "buy the dip" mentality in corn and soybeans. The important "outside markets" today--crude oil and the U.S. dollar--trading near steady. Wheat bulls have benefited from wet harvesting weather in the U.S. wheat regions.
Wednesday, June 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
In this report I track two popular oscillators, the Relative Strength Index and the Slow Stochastics indicator. If you'd like to learn more about these two momentum indicators and how to use them as a trading tool, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll email you a feature story I wrote a while back.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading. Trading has turned into choppy, summertime price action.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,345.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,340.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,355.50 and then at 1,362.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,362.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,358.70
1st Support:------ 1,345.80
2nd Support:------ 1,338.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,365.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,378.80
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,963.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,950.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,989.50 and then at Tuesday's high of 2,005.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,995.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,990.10
1st Support:------ 1,975.20
2nd Support:------ 1,964.10
1st Resistance:--- 2,001.20
2nd Resistance:--- 2,016.10
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 12,100 and then more stops just below support at the June low of 12,085. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 12,200 and then just above resistance at 12,250. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,291
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,217
1st Support:------ 12,106
2nd Support:------ 12,039
1st Resistance:--- 12,284
2nd Resistance:--- 12,395
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today. Bulls are working on forging a market bottom in Treasuries, but have more work to do.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 112 21/32 and then at 113 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 3/32 and then at 112 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 8/32
1st Support:----- 111 24/32
2nd Support:----- 111 9/32
1st Resistance:-- 112 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 7/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 112.00.0 and then above resistance at 112.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 111.20.5 and then more sell stops just below support at 111.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 111.22.0
1st Support:------ 111.12.0
2nd Support:------ 110.28.0
1st Resistance:--- 112.06.0
2nd Resistance:--- 112.16.0
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 74.31 and then at Monday's high of 74.58. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.86 and then at 73.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.91. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5394 and then just below support at 1.5350. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5485 and then at 1.5500. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5497. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $891.00 and then at Monday's high of $897.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $880.00 and then at $875.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $886.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower today. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $134.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $135.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $132.00, and then more sell stops just below support at $131.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $130.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to lower in overnight trading. While the weather in the Corn Belt has been bullish for corn and soybeans, the flooding may now be factored into the price structure after the recent strong rallies in corn and beans. The bearishly postured "outside markets" today--lower crude oil and a steady-firm dollar--are bearish for the grains. Wheat bulls appear to be exhausted after recent gains.
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