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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
www.TradingEducation.com.
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The mission of my morning web log, or "blog" is to provide you with
the very latest perspective and opinion on selected key markets.
I will help you start your trading day by providing you with concise
and valuable trading "nuggets" to help you in your daily trading plans. |
« June 2008 |
Main
| August 2008 »
July 2008 Archives
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.51 and then at this week's high of 73.63. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.27 and then at 73.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5534 and then just below support at 1.5500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5603 and then at 1.5650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5674. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $923.90 and then at Wednesday's high of $929.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $910.00 and then at Wednesday's low of $902.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $920.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday's high of $127.39 and then just above resistance at $128.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $125.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $124.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The "outside markets" are neutral early today--lower crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar. The Corn Belt weather forecasts call for hotter temps in the coming days, and that will limit the downside pressure in corn and soybeans again today. Corn bulls have gained upside technical momentum this week, while the wheat market remains in a bearish posture.
Thursday, July 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is an extra important trading day as it's the last trading day of the month. Monthly high or low closes today in any markets would have technical significance. Also, the big speculative "funds" tend to square up some of their trading positions on the last trading day of the month, which can make for more volatile market action.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. The bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum recently. Traders are awaiting Friday morning's key U.S. jobs report for fresh direction.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,280.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,275.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,291.00 and then at the July high of 1,294.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,292.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,276.50
1st Support:------ 1,267.95
2nd Support:------ 1,251.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,293.25
2nd Resistance:--- 1,301.80
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,851.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,825.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,871.00 and then at 1,877.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,879.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,849.95
1st Support:------ 1,833.85
2nd Support:------ 1,811.45
1st Resistance:--- 1,872.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,888.40
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,550 and then more stops just below support at 11,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,600 and then just above resistance at the July high of 11,680. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,665
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,517
1st Support:------ 11,453
2nd Support:------ 11,327
1st Resistance:--- 11,643
2nd Resistance:--- 11,707
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control with neither making much headway.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 even and then at Wednesday's high of 115 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 18/32 and then at 114 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 22/32
1st Support:----- 114 1/32
2nd Support:----- 113 10/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.10.5 and then above resistance at 114.15.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.31.0 and then at 113.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.14.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 114 even
1st Support:----- 113 19/32
2nd Support:----- 113 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 29/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 73.63 and then at 73.80. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.33 and then at 73.23. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.27. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5500 and then just below support at 1.5450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5579 and then at 1.5600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5674. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control with neither making much headway.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 even and then at 115 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 20/32 and then at 114 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 22/32
1st Support:----- 114 3/32
2nd Support:----- 113 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 23/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.08.0 and then above resistance at 114.15.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.29.0 and then at 113.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.14.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 114 even
1st Support:----- 113 18/32
2nd Support:----- 113 7/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 11/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 25/32
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. The "outside markets" are neutral to bearish early today--lower crude oil and a steady U.S. dollar. The Corn Belt weather forecasts call for hotter temps in the coming days, and that will limit the downside pressure in corn and soybeans today. Wheat and corn remain in a near-term technically bearish posture. Soybeans are not as bearish, but not outright bullish, from a near-term technical perspective.
Wednesday, July 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil and gold prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The gold futures market has suffered near-term technical damage as prices today hit a fresh five-week low. This week's price action has also seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. Prices are also in a steep two-week-old downtrend on the daily chart. Gold traders will continue to closely eye the value of the U.S. dollar. More dollar strength will add to downside pressure on gold.--Jim
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $920.00 and then at $925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $910.00 and then at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $920.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $122.65 and then just above resistance at $124.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday's low of $120.42 and then more sell stops just below support at $120.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Traders are awaiting Friday morning's key U.S. jobs report for direction.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,259.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,250.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,270.00 and then at 1,275.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,252.10
1st Support:------ 1,241.20
2nd Support:------ 1,220.70
1st Resistance:--- 1,272.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,283.50
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,841.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,825.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,856.00 and then at 1,871.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,879.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,835.10
1st Support:------ 1,814.20
2nd Support:------ 1,786.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,862.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,883.85
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,350 and then more stops just below support at 11,300. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,400 and then just above resistance at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,347
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,297
1st Support:------ 11,216
2nd Support:------ 11,059
1st Resistance:--- 11,454
2nd Resistance:--- 11,535
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control with neither making much headway.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 even and then at the overnight high of 115 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 16/32 and then at 114 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 23/32
1st Support:----- 114 2/32
2nd Support:----- 113 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 11/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.15.0 and then above resistance at 114.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 114 2/32
1st Support:----- 113 20/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 5/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 73.23 and then at 73.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.82 and then at 72.74. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.27. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5650 and then just below support at last week's low of 1.5585. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5700 and then at Monday's high of 1.5729. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5674. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is trading lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $940.00 and then at the overnight high of $943.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $930.00 and then at last week's low of $925.90. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $935.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The "outside markets" are bearish early today--lower crude oil and a firmer U.S. dollar. Corn and soybean crop ratings on Monday afternoon came in higher than last week. While the Corn Belt weather forecasts call for higher temps in the coming days, traders are not deeming that situation real threatening to the crops right now, amid recent beneficial rains over the Corn Belt.
Tuesday, July 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Price action in the U.S. stock indexes has become choppy. Heading into the "dog days" of summer, this trend-less price action in the stock indexes is likely to continue until at least mid-September.--Jim
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $125.85 and then just above resistance at $127.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week's low of $122.50 and then more sell stops just below support at $121.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Traders are awaiting Friday morning's key U.S. jobs report for direction.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,231.60. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,225.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,250.00 and then at Monday's high of 1,259.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,242.60
1st Support:------ 1,255.65
2nd Support:------ 1,216.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,252.05
2nd Resistance:--- 1,269.00
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,807.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,830.00 and then at Monday's high of 1,854.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,808.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,822.95
1st Support:------ 1,791.85
2nd Support:------ 1,769.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,844.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,875.95
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 11,107 and then more stops just below support at 11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,200 and then just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,242
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,194
1st Support:------ 11,049
2nd Support:------ 10,961
1st Resistance:--- 11,282
2nd Resistance:--- 11,427
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are still bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 73.00 and then at the overnight high of 73.12. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.82 and then at Friday's low of 72.74. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.27. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5644 and then just below support at last week's low of 1.5585. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5726 and then at 1.5750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5674. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $943.10 and then at Friday's high of $945.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $935.00 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $935.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short covering. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $126.00 and then just above resistance at $127.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week's low of $122.50 and then more sell stops just below support at $121.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering following recent selling pressure. The "outside markets" are bullish early today--higher crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar. Weather in the Corn Belt is still overall bearish. Bulls still have some work to do to regain good upside near-term technical momentum.
Monday, July 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices on a corrective bounce from last week's strong downside price pressure.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity traders should keep an eye on gold this week. Gold bulls have struggled recently and recent price action has formed a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart for December gold. Gold bulls need a solidly weaker U.S. dollar this week to jump start a rally.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly lower in early morning trading. The bears have the near-term technical advantage as the rebound from the July lows has fizzled.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at last week's low of 1,247.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,238.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,257.30 and then at 1,265.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,255.25
1st Support:------ 1,248.00
2nd Support:------ 1,242.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,261.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,268.35
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,825.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Friday's low of 1,816.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,848.50 and then at last week's high of 1,871.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,808.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,837.10
1st Support:------ 1,820.20
2nd Support:------ 1,799.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,857.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,874.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,350 and then just above resistance at 11,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,362
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,349
1st Support:------ 11,273
2nd Support:------ 11,230
1st Resistance:--- 11,392
2nd Resistance:--- 11,468
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control with neither making much headway.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 114 8/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 even and then at the overnight low of 113 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 15/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 10/32
1st Support:----- 113 7/32
2nd Support:----- 112 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 1/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.24.0 and then above resistance at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.12.5 and then at 113.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 1/32
2nd Support:----- 112 21/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 5/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 29/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are still bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 73.00 and then at this week's high of 73.23. Shorter-term support is seen at 72.63 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.27. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5622 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5585. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5750 and then at 1.5800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5674. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $945.20 and then at $950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $936.70 and then at $930.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $935.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $127.00 and then just above resistance at $128.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $125.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $124.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering following recent selling pressure. The "outside markets" are bearish today--higher crude oil and a weaker the U.S. dollar. Weather in the Corn Belt is still overall bearish. Bears still have some downside technical momentum, but more short covering could occur today, ahead of the weekend.
Friday, July 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly weaker U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The crude oil market and other commodities have been beaten up the past couple weeks. However, with the still technically very weak posture of the U.S. dollar index, which is a main barometer of the health of the greenback, the commodity bulls still have some home for better days ahead. A fresh slide in the value of the dollar will likely find short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest in many commodity futures markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading. The bulls have lost upside near-term technical momentum as the indexes are now in danger of posting bearish weekly low closes today.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,247.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,238.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,256.30 and then at 1,270.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,263.30
1st Support:------ 1,241.70
2nd Support:------ 1,229.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,275.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,297.00
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,788.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,828.25 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,808.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,831.50
1st Support:------ 1,801.00
2nd Support:------ 1,782.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,850.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,880.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,400 and then just above resistance at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,250
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,435
1st Support:------ 11,251
2nd Support:------ 11,150
1st Resistance:--- 11,536
2nd Resistance:--- 11,720
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Treasury bulls have gained some fresh near-term technical momentum and would gain more by producing bullish weekly high closes on Friday.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 14/32 and then at 115 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at 114 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 15/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 20/32
1st Support:----- 114 3/32
2nd Support:----- 113 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.16.0 and then above resistance at 114.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.06.5 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 28/32
1st Support:----- 113 14/32
2nd Support:----- 112 23/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 1/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.23 and then at 73.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.93 and then at 72.63. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.27. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5596 and then just below support at the July low of 1.5555. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5666 and then at 1.5700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5611. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is trading near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $941.30 and then at $950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $926.20 and then at $920.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $935.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $125.44 and then just above resistance at $127.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $123.62 and then more sell stops just below support at $122.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering following recent selling pressure. Traders will scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. The "outside markets"--crude oil and the U.S. dollar--are trading near steady today. Weather in the Corn Belt is still overall bearish. Bears still have some downside technical momentum.
Thursday, July 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I like to have as many tools in my trading tool box as possible (just like I do in my big Craftsman tool box that stands five-feet tall in my garage!) The weekly commitment of traders report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is a valuable trading tool to find out what the "big boys" are up to--both big speculators and commercial traders. I wrote a feature story a while back on how to interpret those weekly COT reports. I'd be happy to email it to you. Just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and email it back to you.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are mixed in early morning trading. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum after recent gains.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,273.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,284.90 and then at the July high of 1,294.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,257.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,282.15
1st Support:------ 1,273.30
2nd Support:------ 1,264.15
1st Resistance:--- 1,291.30
2nd Resistance:--- 1,300.15
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday's low of 1,822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,862.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,871.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,880.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,847.35
1st Support:------ 1,823.70
2nd Support:------ 1,798.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,872.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,896.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,600 and then just above resistance at Wednesday's high of 11,680. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,613
1st Support:------ 11,545
2nd Support:------ 11,478
1st Resistance:--- 11,680
2nd Resistance:--- 11,748
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher in early trading today, on short covering after recent losses. Treasury bears still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 5/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 22/32 and then at Wednesday's low of 113 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 113 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 14/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 19/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.16.0 and then above resistance at 113.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.04.0 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 5/32
1st Support:----- 112 29/32
2nd Support:----- 112 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 15/32
2nd Resistance:-- 113 23/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.95 and then at 73.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.63 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5673 and then just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5754 and then at 1.5800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5611. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $950.00 and then at the overnight high of $959.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $942.20 and then at $940.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $935.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $127.50 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $128.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $125.75 and then more sell stops just below support at $125.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $123.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices solidly lower in overnight trading, amid bearish "outside markets"--sharply lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. Weather in the Corn Belt is also overall bearish, with recent beneficial rains and no real oppressive heat in the forecasts. Bears have gained downside technical momentum as the bulls are really spooked.
Wednesday, July 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices that are leading a general sell off in the raw commodity futures complex.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It appears that the previously bullish large speculative and fund raw commodity futures traders are now really spooked and in a liquidation mode. Crude oil is the key "outside market" leading the declines in the commodity sector. In recent months, traders were willing to step in and "buy the breaks" in the commodity markets, and especially in crude oil. However, now in the crude oil market and in other commodity futures markets the trading psychology has changed to one of "sell the rallies." Most commodity market bulls are wounded as their markets are becoming technically weaker.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum after recent gains.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average, but is turning up. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,273.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,284.20 and then at the July high of 1,294.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,292.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,266.60
1st Support:------ 1,255.15
2nd Support:------ 1,236.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,285.65
2nd Resistance:--- 1,297.10
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,850.00 and then at 1,868.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,813.00
1st Support:------ 1,798.70
2nd Support:------ 1,773.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,838.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,853.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,564 and then more stops just below support at 11,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,700 and then just above resistance at 11,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,674
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,514
1st Support:------ 11,425
2nd Support:------ 11,287
1st Resistance:--- 11,652
2nd Resistance:--- 11,741
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower in early trading today, amid a rebounding U.S. stock market. Treasury bears have near-term technical momentum on their side. Stocks and Treasuries will continue to trade in an inverse fashion for at least the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 5/32 and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 17/32 and then at 113 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 9/32
1st Support:----- 113 16/32
2nd Support:----- 112 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 26/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 19/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.13.5 and then above resistance at 113.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 113.00.0 and then at 112.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.31.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 20/32
1st Support:----- 113 even
2nd Support:----- 112 19/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 1/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 21/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.14 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.96 and then at 71.55. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.51. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5860 and then just below support at 1.5800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5901 and then at 1.5940. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5822. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $977.00 and then at $982.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $970.00 and then at the overnight low of $965.90. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $960.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $132.07 and then just above resistance at $133.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $130.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $129.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $131.74. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce after recent losses. Weather in the Corn Belt is still overall bearish, with beneficial rains and no real oppressive heat in the forecasts. The path of least resistance right now in all the grains is sideways to lower. Grain traders continue to closely monitor "outside markets." The outside markets are neutral today as crude oil is slightly lower and the U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker.
Tuesday, July 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index futures prices, following some bearish earnings reports released after the close on Monday and early today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold has been in a solid price uptrend for five weeks and is nearing major psychological resistance at $1,000.00 an ounce. Gold has regained a safe-haven status among traders, amid the financial market uncertainty. With gold so close to the $1,000 mark, my bias is it will probably be hit sooner rather than later. Gold at or above $1,000 an ounce also likely means a U.S. dollar that will continue to be under pressure against the other major currencies in the coming weeks.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning trading. The bulls had recently gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but appear poised to lose it today.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,247.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,238.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,258.30 and then at Monday's high of 1,268.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,242.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,261.90
1st Support:------ 1,255.10
2nd Support:------ 1,248.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,268.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,275.20
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,791.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the July low of 1,765.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,800.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,821.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,828.50
1st Support:------ 1,812.00
2nd Support:------ 1,796.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,844.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,860.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,410 and then just above resistance at 11,465. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,261
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,473
1st Support:------ 11,402
2nd Support:------ 11,338
1st Resistance:--- 11,537
2nd Resistance:--- 11,608
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today, amid a likely weaker start for the U.S. stock indexes today. Stocks and Treasuries will continue to trade in an inverse fashion for at least the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 2/32 and then at 115 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 21/32 and then at 114 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 12/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 17/32
1st Support:----- 114 9/32
2nd Support:----- 113 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 even
2nd Resistance:-- 115 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.09.0 and then above resistance at 114.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.26.5 and then at 113.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.10.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 25/32
1st Support:----- 113 17/32
2nd Support:----- 113 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 114 7/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 15/32
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $969.00 and then at $975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $960.00 and then at the overnight low of $955.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $960.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 72.50 and then at last week's high of 72.67. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.20 and then at 72.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.51. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5783 and then just below support at last week's low of 1.5735. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5864 and then at 1.5900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5822. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply higher early today, amid storms brewing in the Caribbean Sea that could damage major oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $132.50 and then just above resistance at $133.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $131.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $130.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $131.74. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on follow-through selling pressure from last Friday's bearish weekly low closes in the grains. Weather in the Corn Belt is now turning more bearish, with beneficial rains and no real oppressive heat in the forecasts. Grain traders continue to closely monitor "outside markets." The outside markets are bullish today as crude oil is higher and the U.S. dollar index is weaker.
Monday, July 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in crude oil futures prices after last week's big losses.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock indexes have made a significant recovery from the recent lows. If the indexes can post bullish weekly high closes this week--or close to them--then that would be an early technical clue that lows are in place and that prices can work sideways to higher in the coming weeks, or longer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading, as they are making a decent rebound from the recent lows. The bulls have gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but still have more heavy lifting to do in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,256.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,250.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,275.00 and then at 1,278.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,279.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,254.80
1st Support:------ 1,246.80
2nd Support:------ 1,233.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,268.40
2nd Resistance:--- 1,276.40
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,822.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,800.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,850.00 and then at last week's high of 1,868.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,835.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,832.75
1st Support:------ 1,817.00
2nd Support:------ 1,805.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,844.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,860.25
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,450. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,600 and then just above resistance at 11,650. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,659
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,459
1st Support:------ 11,407
2nd Support:------ 11,314
1st Resistance:--- 11,552
2nd Resistance:--- 11,604
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls have faded recently amid the rebound in the U.S. stock market. Stocks and Treasuries will continue to trade in an inverse fashion for at least the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 114 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 114 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 even and then at 113 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 113 30/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 114 19/32
1st Support:----- 113 28/32
2nd Support:----- 113 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 2/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 25/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 113.29.0 and then above resistance at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.10.5 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 112.30.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 113 20/32
1st Support:----- 113 12/32
2nd Support:----- 113 1/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 7/32
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.50 and then at Thursday's high of 72.67. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.22 and then at 72.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.51. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is modestly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.5735 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5841 and then at 1.5900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5822. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly lower in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $965.00 and then at $970.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of $953.10 and then at $950.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $960.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a corrective bounce after recent strong losses. Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $132.04 and then just above resistance at $133.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday's low of $129.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $127.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $131.74. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and wheat were lower and soybeans were higher. Grain traders continue to closely monitor "outside markets" and the weather forecasts for the Corn Belt. The outside markets are bullish today as crude oil is higher and the U.S. dollar index is weaker. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt have again tilted toward the bearish camp. Corn is still near-term technically weak, but beans have not seen any significant chart damage. Wheat futures are still in a near-term bearish technical mode.
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