Name: Jim Wyckoff 
Crude Oil Rebounds Overnight
Friday, July 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in crude oil futures prices after the biggest three-day drop in that market in its history.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Near-term technical damage has been inflicted in the crude oil futures market as prices have dropped around $17.00 a barrel from last week's record high. Crude's plunge has impacted other markets, including the grains, softs and stock indexes. The key question is: Will crude oil traders view this sell off as a buying opportunity? The lower crude oil prices go, the more leery the bulls will be to step in an buy the dip, for fear that prices are headed even lower. Indeed, the psychology of the crude oil market traders has changed this week. Bulls no longer have a swagger.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading, on more follow-through strength from good gains Wednesday and Thursday. While near-term price downtrends are still in place in the stock indexes, bullish weekly high closes today would provide the bulls with fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1,241.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 1,263.00 and then at 1,270.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,279.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,251.55
1st Support:------ 1,240.10
2nd Support:------ 1,226.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,264.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,276.35
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,830.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1,821.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,850.00 and then at Thursday's high of 1,868.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,847.25
1st Support:------ 1,826.50
2nd Support:------ 1,813.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,860.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,881.25
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,400 and then more stops just below support at 11,350. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,500 and then just above resistance at 11,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but has turned up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,493
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,347
1st Support:------ 11,254
2nd Support:------ 11,107
1st Resistance:--- 11,494
2nd Resistance:--- 11,587
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are near steady in early trading today. Bulls have faded late this week.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 even and then at the overnight high of 115 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 24/32 and then at Thursday's low of 114 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 even
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 1/32
1st Support:----- 114 13/32
2nd Support:----- 113 26/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 20/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.00.0 and then above resistance at 114.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.17.0 and then at 114.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 114 9/32
1st Support:----- 113 18/32
2nd Support:----- 113 even
1st Resistance:-- 114 27/32
2nd Resistance:-- 115 18/32
