Name: Jim Wyckoff 
U.S. Stock Indexes See Follow-Through Strength Early
Thursday, July 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices for the third day in a row.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today and Friday will be extra important for the crude oil futures market. Bulls are already a bit jittery. Another solid down day Thursday would produce significant near-term technical damage to begin to suggest that at least a near-term market top is in place. In recent months, downside corrections such as this week's have been viewed by traders as buying opportunities, and crude oil prices have rebounded quickly.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are higher in early morning trading, on follow-through strength from good gains Wednesday. However, near-term price downtrends are still in place in the stock indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,245.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1,238.20. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,260.00 and then at 1,270.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,250.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,229.80
1st Support:------ 1,213.55
2nd Support:------ 1,186.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,257.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,273.60
September Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1,839.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,877.00 and then at the July high of 1,886.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,827.85
1st Support:------ 1,804.70
2nd Support:------ 1,764.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,867.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,891.10
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,250 and then more stops just below support at 11,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,350 and then just above resistance at 11,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,370
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,114
1st Support:------ 10,997
2nd Support:------ 10,789
1st Resistance:--- 11,322
2nd Resistance:--- 11,439
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are steady to firmer in early trading today. Bulls are fading a bit as the U.S. stock market rebounds.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 9/32 and then at 115 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 10/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 31/32
1st Support:----- 114 23/32
2nd Support:----- 113 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 23/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 31/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.00.0 and then above resistance at 115.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.17.0 and then at 114.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.04.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 2/32
1st Support:----- 114 12/32
2nd Support:----- 113 30/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 6/32
