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Name: Jim Wyckoff
Location: Iowa
Hobbies: Boating, Camping, Hiking, and anything else outdoors
I am a Senior Market Analyst for
www.TradingEducation.com
a FREE educational website. I
have been involved with the stock, financial and futures
markets for more than 20 years. I became a financial
journalist with Futures World News for many years, where
I covered every futures market traded in the United
States at one time or another. Not long after I began my
career in financial journalism, I began studying
technical analysis. My extensive studies of technical
analysis and knowledge of markets led to several
positions, including chief technical analyst at several
reputable companies.
You can also read additional FREE
daily commentary at
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Main
Market News Archives
Wednesday, July 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices that are leading a general sell off in the raw commodity futures complex.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It appears that the previously bullish large speculative and fund raw commodity futures traders are now really spooked and in a liquidation mode. Crude oil is the key "outside market" leading the declines in the commodity sector. In recent months, traders were willing to step in and "buy the breaks" in the commodity markets, and especially in crude oil. However, now in the crude oil market and in other commodity futures markets the trading psychology has changed to one of "sell the rallies." Most commodity market bulls are wounded as their markets are becoming technically weaker.--Jim
Continue reading "Crude Oil Leads Commodity Market Weakness Early Wednesday" »
Tuesday, July 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower U.S. stock index futures prices, following some bearish earnings reports released after the close on Monday and early today.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold has been in a solid price uptrend for five weeks and is nearing major psychological resistance at $1,000.00 an ounce. Gold has regained a safe-haven status among traders, amid the financial market uncertainty. With gold so close to the $1,000 mark, my bias is it will probably be hit sooner rather than later. Gold at or above $1,000 an ounce also likely means a U.S. dollar that will continue to be under pressure against the other major currencies in the coming weeks.--Jim
Continue reading "Earnings News Pressures Stock Indexes Early" »
GOLD
Gold is trading higher in early dealings today. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $969.00 and then at $975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $960.00 and then at the overnight low of $955.70. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $960.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
Continue reading "Gold Higher in Early Trading Monday" »
Monday, July 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in crude oil futures prices after last week's big losses.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock indexes have made a significant recovery from the recent lows. If the indexes can post bullish weekly high closes this week--or close to them--then that would be an early technical clue that lows are in place and that prices can work sideways to higher in the coming weeks, or longer.--Jim
Continue reading "Crude Oil Rebounds Amid Gulf Storms Brewing" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.50 and then at Thursday's high of 72.67. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.22 and then at 72.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.51. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is modestly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1.5735 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5841 and then at 1.5900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5822. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Weaker in Early Dealings" »
Friday, July 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a rebound in crude oil futures prices after the biggest three-day drop in that market in its history.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Near-term technical damage has been inflicted in the crude oil futures market as prices have dropped around $17.00 a barrel from last week's record high. Crude's plunge has impacted other markets, including the grains, softs and stock indexes. The key question is: Will crude oil traders view this sell off as a buying opportunity? The lower crude oil prices go, the more leery the bulls will be to step in an buy the dip, for fear that prices are headed even lower. Indeed, the psychology of the crude oil market traders has changed this week. Bulls no longer have a swagger.--Jim
Continue reading "Crude Oil Rebounds Overnight" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bears still have solid downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.32 and then at 72.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.10 and then at 72.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is modestly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5761 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5748. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5846 and then at 1.5900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5822. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Weaker in Early Trading" »
Thursday, July 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices for the third day in a row.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today and Friday will be extra important for the crude oil futures market. Bulls are already a bit jittery. Another solid down day Thursday would produce significant near-term technical damage to begin to suggest that at least a near-term market top is in place. In recent months, downside corrections such as this week's have been viewed by traders as buying opportunities, and crude oil prices have rebounded quickly.--Jim
Continue reading "U.S. Stock Indexes See Follow-Through Strength Early" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bears still have solid downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.05 and then at 72.30. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 71.76 and then at 71.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The September Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday's low of 1.5814 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5790. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5998 and then at 1.5950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5822. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Continue reading "Greenback Weaker Again in Early Dealings" »
Wednesday, July 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar that hit another record low overnight. That has put more downside pressure on the U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Another big down day in the crude oil futures market today would really spook the crude oil and commodity market bulls, as it would be an early clue that the crude market has put in at least a near-term top. With the surprisingly dour assessment of the U.S. economy given by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Tuesday, bullish commodity traders are worried that consumer demand in the world's largest consuming nation is on the decline.--Jim
Continue reading "U.S. Stock Indexes Under Pressure Again Early Today" »
GOLD
Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh 3.5-month high overnight. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $990.00 and then at $1,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $980.00 and then at the overnight low of $970.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $960.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
Continue reading "Gold Hits Fresh 3.5-Month High Overnight" »
Tuesday, July 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a solidly lower U.S. dollar that hit a record low overnight. That has put downside pressure on the U.S. stock indexes.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As the U.S. dollar index sunk to a fresh all-time low overnight, the raw commodity bulls are encouraged. A new leg down on the U.S. dollar index would likely suggest solid upside price pressure for several commodity futures markets, with gold and crude oil leading the way.--Jim
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Index Sinks to Record Low Overnight" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.58 and then at Friday's high of 72.86. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.25 and then at last week's low of 72.07. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.61. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices did poke to a fresh contract high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5790 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5900 and then at the overnight contract high of 1.5940. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5748. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Firmer Early Monday" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.58 and then at Friday's high of 72.86. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.25 and then at last week's low of 72.07. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.61. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices did poke to a fresh contract high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5790 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5900 and then at the overnight contract high of 1.5940. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5748. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Firmer Early Monday" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.58 and then at Friday's high of 72.86. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.25 and then at last week's low of 72.07. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.61. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices did poke to a fresh contract high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5790 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.5900 and then at the overnight contract high of 1.5940. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5748. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Firmer Early Monday" »
Monday, July 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher U.S. stock indexes on news that the U.S. government will provide a safety net for the U.S. mortgage backed securities industry.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The stock indexes are still in technical trouble as downtrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the U.S. government has prompted some short covering in the stock indexes, but that is only a reprieve for the stock market bulls at the moment. It will take a strong up-week with closes near the weekly highs for the stock index bulls to begin to regain significant upside technical strength.--Jim
Continue reading "U.S. Stock Indexes Higher in Early Trading" »
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.85. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, April's low
crossing at 71.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 73.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
73.19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.04. First
support is the overnight low crossing at 72.64. Second support is last week'
s low crossing at 72.30.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above
the 10-day moving average crossing at 156.972. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, April's high
crossing at 159.050 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 156.126 are needed to confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at
157.730. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 158.530. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 156.971. Second support is
Monday's low crossing at 155.550.
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Weaker in Early Trading" »
FRiday, July 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
(NOTE: Today my friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen is
doing my morning report. Ken is a farmer and I produce his reports
for several days when he is planting and harvesting. Ken covers for
me a few days each year. Ken's report is a bit different than mine,
but I think you'll find it also to be informative.--Jim)
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends this month's
trading range above the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally
crossing at 1788.18. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting
that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1887.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If September renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement
level of the March-June rally crossing at 1788.18 is the next downside
target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 9.00. pts. at 1835.25 as of 5:55
AM CST. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1877.50. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1887.96. First support
is Monday's low crossing at 1804.00. Second support is the 75% retracement
level crossing at 1788.18. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower
opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this
morning.
The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends this week's
trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September
renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 1229.20 is the next
downside target. It will take closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1293.36 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1278.80. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1293.35. First support is Tuesday's low
crossing at 1236.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1229.20.
The September S&P 500 Index was down 8.60 pts. at 1245.90 as of 5:58 AM CST.
Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the September S&P 500
index when the day session begins later this morning.
Continue reading "U.S. Stock Indexes Lower Early" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Trading has become choppy recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 73.31 and then at this week's high of 73.49. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday's low of 72.76 and then at 72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 72.89. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.5600 and then just below support at this week's low of 1.5555. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5710 and then at 1.5763. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5667. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Firmer, But Trading Choppy" »
Thursday, July 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes and higher U.S. Treasuries.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. stock indexes are is in some very serious trouble, both fundamentally and technically. I look for prices to trade sideways to lower at least into the September timeframe. If that scenario does play out, then the U.S. Treasuries will see continued price uptrends into the end of the summer, or beyond. Also, any geopolitical jitters will also benefit T-Bonds and T-Notes on a "flight-to-quality" basis.--Jim
Continue reading "U.S. Stock Indexes See Short-Covering Bounce Early" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.31 and then at this week's high of 73.49. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.02 and then at this week's low of 72.85. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5596 and then just below support at 1.5550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5673 and then at 1.5700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5667. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Weaker in Early Dealings" »
Wednesday, July 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The crude oil market is seeing a rebound early today, following strong losses on Monday and Tuesday. Today's close will be key in the crude oil futures market. A solidly lower close today in crude oil prices would really spook the bulls and would likely lead to still more long liquidation in the liquid energy markets. Crude oil traders will continue to keep one eye on the value of the U.S. dollar.--Jim
Continue reading "Crude Oil Rebounds Overnight" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 73.12 and then at last week's high of 73.29. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.89 and then at the June low of 72.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The September Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.5620 and then just below support at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5686 and then at 1.5700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.5446. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Firmer in Early Dealings" »
Tuesday, July 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading again today is lower crude oil prices, which are again pulling other raw commodity markets lower, too. A big down day today in the crude oil futures market will spook the commodity market bulls.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The key factor in the crude oil market and in many other markets is the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. If the greenback can make a sustained recovery to suggest a major low is in place, that would spell doom for the commodity market bulls. Further weakness in the dollar would likely see new highs in crude and in other raw commodity futures markets.--Jim
Continue reading "Crude Oil Under Pressure Again Early Today" »
GRAINS
Prices were sharply lower higher in overnight trading, including corn trading limit down. This week is historically one of the more important trading weeks of the year in the grains, and the bears are starting out in firm command. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is now being deemed benign heading into the key growing period of the summer, especially for corn. "Outside markets" today are also bearish--lower crude oil and a stronger U.S. dollar. Make sure to read my Daily Markets Update report at the end of the day for more perspective on grains to begin this key trading week after the Fourth of July holiday.
Continue reading "This Week is Key for Grain Futures Markets" »
Monday, July 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is sharply lower crude oil prices, which are pulling other raw commodity markets sharply lower, too. The U.S. dollar is stronger early today, too.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil is under strong selling pressure today and, along with the U.S. dollar, remains a key "outside market" that all traders are monitoring closely. There are no early technical clues to suggest the major bull market run in crude oil is about to end. Dips in the crude oil market have recently proven to be buying opportunities. Two real strong down days in a row in crude oil would spook the bulls.--Jim
Continue reading "Crude Oil Sharply Lower Early, Dollar Firmer" »
PRECIOUS METALS
August gold was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low,
April's high crossing at 959.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 902.10 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.30.
Second resistance is April's high crossing at 959.50. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 917.50. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 902.10.
September silver was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as
it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, April's high
crossing at 18.845 is the next upside target. From a broad perspective,
September silver needs to close above 18.845 or below 16.190 to confirm a
breakout of this years trading range and point the direction of the next
trending move. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 18.545.
Second resistance is April's high crossing at 18.845. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 17.534. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 17.333.
Continue reading "Gold Prices Weaker Overnight" »
Thursday, July 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
(NOTE: Today my friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken
Seehusen is doing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken is a farmer
and I produce his reports for several days when he is planting and
harvesting. Ken covers for me a few days each year, so I can spend
some time with my family around the holidays. Ken's report is a bit
different than mine, but I think you'll find it also to be informative.
--Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's
decline below the 62% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at
1838.05. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends
this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally
crossing at 1788.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1927.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 5.25. pts. at 1819.25
as of 5:53 AM CST. First resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at
1838.05. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1879.47.
First support is the overnight low crossing at 1813.00. Second support is
the 75% retracement level crossing at 1788.18. Overnight action sets the
stage for a lower opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day session
begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher due to short
covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends
this summer's decline, March's low crossing at 1254.80 is the next downside
target. It will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1322.66 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance
is the 87% retracement level crossing at 1278.20. Second resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 1293.37. First support is the overnight
low crossing at 1261.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 1254.80.
The September S&P 500 Index was up 1.00 pts. at 1263.80 as of 5:58 AM CST.
Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June
S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Continue reading "U.S. Treasuries Firmer Overnight, Dollar Firmer" »
CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last
week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
September extends last week's decline, April's low crossing at 71.83 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
73.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.16. Second resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 73.48. First support is Monday's low
crossing at 72.35. Second support is April's low crossing at 72.35.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off
June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the rally, April's high crossing at 159.050 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.359
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
overnight high crossing at 157.920. Second resistance is April's high
crossing at 159.050. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
156.135. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.358.
The September Japanese Yen was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving
average crossing at .9383. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September renews last week's rally, May's high crossing at .9790 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .9382
would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance
is Monday's high crossing at .9565. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at .9678. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.9383. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9382.
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Firmer in Early Dealings" »
Wednesday, July 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
(NOTE: Today and Thursday, my friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken
Seehusen is doing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken is a farmer
and I produce his reports for several days when he is planting and
harvesting. Ken covers for me a few days each year, so I can spend
some time with my family around the holidays. Ken's report is a bit
different than mine, but I think you'll find it also to be informative.
--Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it
extends Tuesday's upside reversal. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or
is near. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1942.46
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September
extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June
rally crossing at 1788.18 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ
100 was up 10.25. pts. at 1879.00 as of 5:48 AM CST. First resistance is the
50% retracement level crossing at 1882.62. Second resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1902.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing
at 1815.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 1788.18.
Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by September NASDAQ 100
when the day session begins later this morning.
The September S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it
extends Tuesday's upside reversal. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and
are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1331.24 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September
extends this summer's decline, March's low crossing at 1254.80 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at
1301.70. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1303.98.
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1261.20. Second support is March'
s low crossing at 1254.80. The September S&P 500 Index was up 4.90 pts. at
1291.10 as of 5:52 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher
opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this
morning.
Continue reading "U.S. Stock Indexes See Short-Covering Bounce Early" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 72.88 and then at 73.00. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 72.46
and then at Monday’s low of 72.35. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
73.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.5663 and then just below support
at 1.5600. Shorter-term technical resistance for
the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.5759
and then at Monday’s high of 1.5776. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.5575. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.5
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Under Pressure Early Today" »
Tuesday, July 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning
trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures
prices and a lower U.S. dollar versus the other
major currencies.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
On this first trading day of the month it looks
like the big speculative funds are up to their same
old tricks: Buying crude oil and selling the U.S.
dollar. Today’s price action in could set the tone
in these two key markets for the near term.--Jim
Continue reading "U.S. Stocks Under Pressure to Start New Month" »
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early
trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 72.71 and
then at Friday's high of 72.95. Shorter-term support is
seen at 72.50 and then at the May low of 72.33. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 73.02.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading.
Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below
technical support at the overnight low of 1.5670 and then
just below support at 1.5650. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of
1.5722 and then at 1.5750. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are
bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.5546. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5
Continue reading "U.S. Dollar Near Steady, But Tone Weak" »
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